WEEK 7 NFL ....................2025

Get down now on Seahawks line is moving to -3.5

other system ................4-4

Seahawks -3 (-120) over Texans --- 1.2 units

Bounce Factor II ............. 1-0

Seahawks -3 (-120) over Texans --- 1.2 units 

We have 2 methods on Seahawks so we play both.

BF II was on Titans over Zona so by rights I should of had 2 units on them . I put 1 unit at -8.5 was waiting for possible 9 but then forgot to put the other 1 unit.

I did have 2 units in king of covers contest

Week 1 Top 3 Performers.........

Packers off 3 ATS losses great spot to back these teams.

Packers -6 (-120) over Zona --- 1.2 units

Falcons pounded the Bills. Won QBPR by about 20 pts, outgained Bills by over 100 yards, won ave per play by like 1.3.

Pounded the Bills in the run game with over 200 yards rushing and a whopping 6.6 yards per rush.

Then won the TO battle by 2-0.

According to PR II Falcons should of won by 19.17 pts not 10.

Bears should of won by alot more then 1 pt themselves winning by 20.13 pts.

They outplayed Wash and then won TO battle 3-0.

Jaylen did win the Passer Rating  battle by about 17 which I dont use in PR II which would make the score closer.

PR II this week in games should have been won by 4 pts or more went 14-0 and games under 4 went 1-0.

Colts should of won by .39 of a pt, in other words a close game and the only game under 4 pts.

I don't see any Bounce Factor plays this week at present time.

We do have a Bounce Factor II play, a fade on the Texans.

My other sytem also has a fade on Texans, so 2 methods say to fade the Texans this week.

Texans close to a Bator method fade as well.

Winning 26-0, and 44-10,  and they are off back-to-back games of giving up 10 pts or fewer with one game giving up 0 pts.

Has to be Seahawks or no play.

Seahawks remain in 2cd place points per plays margin, this team is looking more and more like the real deal.

Colts still in 1st place. As are the Colts.

Interesting  game for Colts coming up at Chargers.

Colts with some key injuries from what I have seen on you tube.

@theclaw

 Man I have NYJ and Seattle as the same trend different spreads both bad spreads in my trackings

so one shud lose but I'm not sure which one so staying off both 

love seeing your threads

@theclaw

 BOL this week 

Interested to see where Darnold stands/compares to last season. I'll look when I get a chance.

Good luck.

whats bounce factor and PR ? 

Good luck Claw.  

Interesting. ..............

What I see on you tube is guys saying Seahawks covered valued but these guys don't use regression. 

Books know regression  and may be adjusting lines based on such.

I myself would never want to be on the side of a team off 26-0 and 44-10 wins. Just say no ......

PR is Power Rating , II is one of 2 PR's I use.

II is more balance heavy and pts for better defense.

PR I is more pass heavy.

Bounce Factor is a method I use for teams off unsustainable levels of play as they are ready to "Bounce"  the other way.

I just look it up, Darnold is better in every area of the QB play. Some areas he is much better then last year.

At present he is on one of the greatest QB season in history if he sustains it.

His ave per pass attempt both before sacks and after sacks is historically great.

His sack rate is down from about 8% to 4%.

Completion % up, TD % up, INT % down, success rate from 47.7 to 51.2%.

Ave per pass from 7.9  to historically great.

He leads the league in both ave per pass attempt and yards per catch.

This level has been sustain by QB's but is it likely ? Is the question.

Matt Ryan did it in 2016 the year they should, could of won the SB. Who'd  a thought that.

But is it likely ?

saw this on you tube.

Going into 3rd straight road game and off a SU and ATS win, is 34% in that 3rd road game. I think back to 2009.

Applies to Pats.

But Varbel going back home to play is former team but Titans firing coach could very well get a bounce out of that.

I'll pass myself

Top 5 points per plays margin ............

Colts .224

Seahawks  .189

Texans .152

Lions .126

Steelers. 125

Here's an interesting  take on the top 5 after 6 weeks.

Last season top 5 .........

Vikings .250...... hey there is Darnold again in top 5

Lions .173

Bills .158

Bucs .146

Packers. 097

Now here is how these 5 teams finished the year.  ....

Lions 15-2

Vikings 14-3

Bills 13-4

Packers 11-6

Bucs 10-7

3 teams won division the other 2 had no chance since they played in thr same division as Lions and only 1 team can win division.

So really only Bucs did not do that great on the year.

Packers went 0-4 VS Lions and Vikings

In 2023 Vikings went 7-10 and Packers 9-8 so both teams showed good improvement  on the year as did Lions 12-5

Packers did go 0-4 VS Lions and Vikings.

In 2023 Vikings were 7-10 and Packers 9-8 so both teams showed good improvement especially  considering Packers went 0-4 VS 2 teams well ahead of them in the year they were top 5 after 6 weeks. Lions were 12-5.

We should expect some nice improvements from these teams.

Of course only 1 year a small sample but . possible 

Claw for president! 

Seahawks to win division +275 --- 1 unit

Colts to win division -130 --- 1.3 units

FTN Fantasy (formerly Football Outsiders - a superior name IMHO) has SEA rated #1 in Team Total DVOA.  DET and IND are tied at #2 and #3.  LAR at #4 and there is a sizeable drop to KC at #5.

https://ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/team-total-dvoa

Thanks for that info dog .............

I looked up the top 5 pts per plays margin after 6 weeks back to 2015 but not the 2 covid years 2020 & 21.

I eliminated the teams from the same division in top 5. 1 of those teams won the division every time.

Of the remaining 31 teams 24 went on to win the division or 77.4% of the time.

There was only 1 bad year produced a losing record, that was 2016, 2-3 overall but after eliminating Bills & Pats in same division (Pats won division ) finished 1-2.

The year before 2015 went 4-1 and the year after went 5-0.

Past 4 season not counting covid years 10-3 or 76.9% so very consistent at winning division.

This season we do have 2 teams from same division, Colts and Texans . However Texans only have 5 games and are coming in off regression type play.

I like to see more from them at this point, rules of regression are team must regress first to get true strength of the team.

I will take the Lions though as I already have Packers  but I have to take them especially  with Packers still the favorite for division  title.

Could be injuries why they aren't  playing well.

But Lions seem like a great price at +160.

Lions to win division +160 --- 1 unit to win 1.6 units

Another thing ....... I already talked about how teams over .200 cannot sustain such high level play unless they are one of the truly great teams all-time.

Colts at .224.

Last season Vikings at .250 and they fell way off that but year end.

6 such teams, did these teams Peak to Early ???

Of these 6 teams 4 won division but 1 year 2023 both Bills and Dolphins over .200. Crazy they tied for divsion title with Bills winning on tiebreaker.

Do you know how many games these 6 teams won ATS in playoffs ??

Exactly 1, it does appear they did peak to early.

3 of the 6 lost SU in 1st playoff game.

2023 9ers first after 6 weeks at .259, 2cd best of any team in that span did make the SB but went 0-3 ATS.

The best team,  crazy as it sounds was Pats at a whopping 313- well ahead of 2cd best 9ers , first year after Brady was with Mac Jones best I remember. 

But only to lose 1st playoff game to Titans 20-13.

If we look for example at last season, Vikes first at .250 but they finish like .129. Big decline, if we eliminate those first 6 weeks they are well under .129 in the remaing 11 games.

And they get hammered by Rams in WC playoff game 27-9.

While Bills at .158 3rd best after 6 weeks improves to the best team about .182. So if we eliminate those first 6 weeks Bills better then .182.

And Bills win both SU & ATS in their first 2 playoff games only then to lose to KC as they normally do.

So as far as the Colts go, if they can austain such play then they might make good playoff team to back.

I need to see how all teams did whether they improve or decline and by how much if there is any correlation  to playoff failure or success.

2019 Pats at .313 fell to 4th at .146, huge drop-off before losing in 1st playoff game.