Week 7

what are your thoughts on the SD/KC game?  SD plays at denver 4 days later, and KC is off a bye.  Was originally leaning KC in this one

Actually, I think you need to buy out of Denver.

I like Flowers and Verrett at the Corners for San Diego. They can play man in the Chargers 3-4, 2 gap scheme allowing the middle linebackers to play close to the line of scrimmage against KC'S rushing attack. San Diego's Lb's play as close to the line of scrimmage as any team in the league. So, with the Chargers having corners that can shut down KC'S average receivers, I think KCs running game will have a tough time finding gaps just as the Jets and Bills rushing attack found it difficult to run on this unit. SD 's two gap 3-4 scheme is a girl to run against when the opponent doesn't have the receivers to exploit the secondary. KC is run heavy with a west coast offensive style on the passing game. Kc's offense and personnel suits San Diego. KC'S offensive line is also very weak. San Diego could have a field day blitzing from the edge against KC'S tackles. On the other side of the ball, Gates should have a huge day with Royal and Allen spreading the field, vertically. The Chiefs defensive weakness is their coverage against tight ends in the middle. Every opponents tight end this season has had very good numbers against this unit. I think Rivers will have another big day.

Classic case of X's and O's capping vs situational capping, AMD. Everything you say might be true but I think it is a bad spot for the Chargers. Like all your other picks, though. Good luck.

Of course, it's X & O's, how do you cap this game any differently other than looking at the current matchup? What is situational capping anyway and how do you apply it to this game? I think it's nonsense to say the Chargers are in a bad "spot" this week. Why? I mean, they might lose the cover or even the game, for that matter, but how should we really know the Chargers are in a bad "situation?" How did their "situation" turn out when they were put in the "spot" of having to travel to Buffalo a few weeks ago to play an early game after everyone was saying it would be a "letdown" because they just beat the Seahawks? Do you realize how fukking ridiculous all of this sounds? Cap the matchup man and leave all this hokey "situational" shitt alone.

It's the NFL.

Not trying to pick a fight, amd. There are all kinds of successful cappers; meaning there is more than one way to skin a cat. Recall, I was not buying into this type of situational betting early in the season and defended you on a couple of picks. This one seems different though. First of all, KC is not a bad team by any means (even if the matchups don't favor them) and they are a division rival to boot. Second, Reid has a very good record out of the bye and his team will be playing to save its season. Third, they are well rested and will be ready to go the distance. Meanwhile, SD has been playing great football but against lesser opponents (even Seattle, as we are finding out, is not as good as advertised). Additionally, they had a very tough game against the Raiders. Did you watch that game? It was playoff intensity. Can they muster up the intensity to play like that two weeks in a row, against a well rested KC team trying to save its season? Maybe. But I'm betting they can't. Add to that the fact that they have to play the big cheese in the division (the Broncos) on Thursday and you have all the makings of a "bad spot," (in my humble opinion).  

Thanks for all your posts. I didn't think you were trying to pick a fight, I enjoy the banter. I fully understand the variables  that are applied  to handicapping and these many variables may include a "situation." But, no matter what situation it is that we're speaking of, head to head matchup has to be the single most important facet of finding an edge when wagering. Your first thought was to say KC wasn't a bad team. Isn't that a highly subjective statement, much less, a very broad statement? What are we referring to when we talk about KC being good? I can think of a number of things that aren't good regarding this team. The second point you mention is Andy Reids record coming out of a bye. Does this statistic really have any relevance to today's game other than to say the Chiefs might be ready to play? It's an insignificant point, in my opinion. And,  your last point was to say KC is well rested. Yeah, they should be. And? .....San Diego didn't play well against Oakland and Oakland played a very inspired game against the Chargers. These anomalies, as you know, happen in the NFL but it still doesn't stop me from capping a game the way it should be capped. In any case, bol today.

I don't like this team. The Packers are a bad team with a good qb. It's easy to bet on the Packers because of the mystique of Green Bay and Rodgers but why should we bet on these sorry fulks? Again, they are a bad team that happens to play in the second worst division in the NFL so their deficiencies will be masked through the season when they play within their division. Carolina happens to play in the worst division in football and, yet, they are still struggling. At least they have an excuse. Injuries, inept rushing attack, only 1 receiver who is constantly double teamed, soft defensive line....and the list goes on. If I had to play the spread, I'd take GB. I'm taking the Packers in a teaser, they should win this game by default. 

I love my entire card the same which is why I flat bet.