Week 4 Props n Plays

Had a great week 3 with our ugly dog plays going 3-0 w +200 ml hit on Carolina. Ended the week 10-5, 2 of the losses were smaller plays on a TD prop and TEN ml. 

Locked in a couple early plays at numbers I like. 

NO +16.5 - Auto play. Just a whole heaping pile of points. Buffalo took a nap during the Miami game and let them back in and I expect they may do the same here. They may get up 20-3 and go on cruise control running the clock out and never be challenged and win 27-13. Buffalo just does not cover when double digit faves typically, and history says hardly any teams cover when favored by this much. 

TEN +7 - Lost on TEN this past week. Expected them to show in a division game and I think the game wouldve been more competitive if not for a pick 6 by Ward on the 3rd play of the game. Now we have TEN as a bigger dog and in division again and I thought this number shouldve been 4 again. 

LAR -3.5 - Indy 2nd straight road game, I think they come back to earth. Rams were able to bottle up Saquon pretty well and I think they will do the same to Taylor. Danny Dimes finally gonna make some mistakes here. The Colts insane offensive run comes to an end. I will put more on this one if the line dips to 3. 

Will have props later in the week

Added:

Watching this Philly line, seeing if it goes to 3. I will still play at 3.5 and even 4, so theres no rush and I'll just wait to see if we can get a 3 and I may sell some points. I faded Bucs last week and will fade them again. They've had to make 3 incredible last minute drives to win now in 3 weeks against not great teams. The magic ends this week, I predict they get stomped by the Eagles who are a great team that can put other teams away.

They found another gear this past week when they had to chuck it around finally and had a close call and got lucky to win let alone cover. This week they will put the pedal down and win convincingly. I think they will be able to completely shut down Tampas offense as well. 

PHI -3/-3.5/-4 whichever it is, its a play. Tampa had no business laying 7 to the Jets, and they should actually be a 6.5 to 7 dog in this matchup

Added:

TJ Hockenson o34.5 rec yds

Added:

Sterling Shepard TD +300

Added:

Kendre Miller o2.5 rec yds

Treveyon Henderson o16.5 rec yds

Courtland Sutton o60.5 rec yds

PHI -4 +100

BOL enjoy your posts and opinions 

@MatthewJL46

 Thank you 

Added:

Jonathon Taylor u89.5 rush yds (Rams can contain the strong rushing attack and Indy should fall behind and have to pass a lot) 

Tre Tucker o42.5 rec yds

Breece Hall o47.5 rush yds (Should be able to gash Miamis bad defense. Very low number for Breece based on recent game bad performance)

Im not going to play it most likely, but this is really standing out to me:

NYG +6.5 - I think Dart and Skattebo will rejuvenate this putrid offense and give them an energy to compete. Plus you have west coast team going east. Giants have a decent defense too. I played this side in my spread pickem league. 

NYJ ML and taking them -3 and up to -6 is interesting as well. I think Breece Hall will run wild vs Miami and Jets can be just good enough on defense to win this

@Yanasaur

 Interesting take on Philly. I don’t disagree with it entirely but I was thinking of going the other way and selling some points with TB. At the end of the day Tampa is a solid team playing at home. Injuries are concerning for sure but would it be a major shock to anyone to see Tampa win by 4 or 5? It’s tough to go against the champs but at the same time they’re going to lose a game eventually.

@brn2loslive2win

I get where you're coming from. Would it be a shock to see Tampa win by 4 or 5? To me it would, I would be very surprised based on what I personally see from both teams, but I can understand why others might see differently. Tampa is a very popular dog this week. They are 3-0 and on the surface seem solid, but they havent won any game convincingly, and if not for late game heroics by Mayfield they could easily be 0-3. They have a pretty good run D, but their pass D leaves a lot to be desired. Against an elite offensive line in Philly I dont think they will be able to get much pressure and Hurts should be able to put together a strong passing game, especially after they dialed up the passing attack so well against LA. Im expecting a smashing by the Eagles

@Yanasaur

 It will be interesting to see the game plan for Philly. If they come out throwing the ball early it could throw Tampas defense off balance. But Philly is a run first power offense. They crushed the entire league last year running first. Do they change that approach this week? We’ll see. Philly can be very conservative with play calling.

Tampas defense currently ranks 11th overall, but that’s mainly because they are 5th vs the run. I agree that Hurts could have a nice day, IF that’s the game plan.

Philly on the other hand is giving up 319 yards/game and is ranked 18th in overall defense. 24th overall vs the run. If Tampa can establish a running/screen game I believe they can perform well at home. Until the final injury report is released it’s hard to bet on the game period. Years ago I would be shocked to be saying this, but in the 4th quarter in a close game I’m fine with Baker. The guy is tough as nails and will absolutely keep his team in the game. 

Public dogs are usually a no no for me. And road favorites were awesome last year. Would I be surprised if Philly completely smokes them? Of course not. But with a few mistakes and a clean game from Tampa I don’t see why they can’t win, and a margin of 3,4, or 5 is not unrealistic. TB was not a play for me this week. But experimenting with unpluckeds theory of selling points, I do believe that at -5 +285 or -4 +255 you’re getting a good price on a team that is playing a winnable game at home. 

One of us is going to be right and we’ll certainly find out on Sunday. GL on your plays! 

Im a west coast guy so don't know much about it but I think the humidity might get to Phili in the 2nd half and you'll get one of Bakers comeback games!

At kickoff the “feels like” temperature will be 99 degrees, 100 by 3pm, and 99 at 4 pm. As someone who lives on the east coast and experiences mid to upper 90s regularly throughout the summer, if you’re not used to physical activity in this weather…good luck. 

This is just an assumption on my part, but the Eagles probably average less than one game a year in those conditions.

That's what steroids, amphetamines, deer antler velvet, HGH, etc are for 

Added:

Sterling Shepard o33.5 rec yds - He tends to step up and get heavily involved whenever Evans is out. Baker has a great connection with him

Jordan Addison TD +300 - Just a good number and what I like is that he is coming off suspension, not injury, so he wont be limited at all. Maybe they dial up something for him to get him rolling with an early TD and coverage will probably be more focused on Hockenson and JJ

From BOISESTATEAND8:

Eagles -3' at BUCCANEERS - Both teams are 3-0, winning their games by a combined 14 points (not counting Philly's blocked FG TD at the end of last week's win over the Rams), so points are a premium here. Eagles always struggle in the Florida heat and humidity, and the Bucs are 15-6 as a dog since acquiring QB Baker Mayfield. I like Tampa Bay here.

Justs another viewpoint.......BOL whomever you land on.

@Cooler999

 Very valid points. Im on the Eagles -4(+100). Maybe im totally wrong and get pie on my face but I'm sticking with my read on this one. 

Added: probably last one 

Miles Sanders o1.5 receptions +145

@Yanasaur

 Jets will be a Larger Play for me.....bol

@greenhead

 Agreed on the Heat and Humidity possibly being a factor ...

Love the Jordan Addison play

Good Luck