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Week 3 NFL Pick of the week 2009-2010

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RobertoFiory

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Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 5456

Posted: Sep. 25, 2009 - 11:09 PM ET #1

Hey everyone ,

I ended week 2 with a win on MNF with Indianapolis

My week 2 picks were a rock solid 8-1 ATS , so perhaps I am on the right track ...

Pick of the week on Oakland Raiders came through to compensate for week's 1 loss .

Summary of picks : Overall >>> 10-4

2-1 ( 2 unit plays )

8-3 ( 1 unit plays )

Preseason 1-1 ( 1-0 on 2 unit plays ) ( 0-1 on 1 unit plays )

Week 1 : 1-2 ( 0-1 on 2 unit plays ) ( 1-1 on o1unit plays )

Week 2 : 8-1 ( 1-0 on 2 unit plays ) ( 7-1 on 1 unit plays )

Week 3 Pick of the Week :

Game : Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

current line : Pittsburgh - 4/3.5

This matchup involves 2 familiar foes as these two divisional rivals renew their yearly contest this Sunday in Cincinnati .

The Super Bowl champs should have no fear going on the road as history is clearly on their side .

Pittsburgh is 7-0-1 ATS last 8 meetings in Cincinnati .

The Road team is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings

Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings

Bengals are 3-10 ATS last 13 games vs the AFC

Bengals are 4-10 ATS last 14 following an ATS win

Recent games between these teams :

PIT 38 - CIN 10

PIT 24 - CIN 13

PIT 23 - CIN 17

PIT 31 - CIN 17

PIT 27 - CIN 13

PIT 19 - CIN 14

This shows total dominance by Pittsburgh while playing on their rival's own turf !

Pittsburgh may have lost a close one @ Chicago last week , but this team has thrived on the road winning 6 of the 8 road contests played last year , and only losing @ New England and Tennessee .

Meanwhile , The Bengals including the home loss against Denver to start the year , have lost twice as many games as they have won

( 3-6 SU) in their own stadium .

Furthermore , Cincinnati is 8-21 ATS ( 27.6 % ) @ home in september games .

The trends clearly point to the team that has been more physical , tougher hitting , harder running , and more overpowering on defense.

With Cincinnati's porous and soft defense , it has been Pittsburgh who has overwhelmed the Bengals time and time again .

But, wait a minute ...

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RobertoFiory

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 5456

Posted: Sep. 25, 2009 - 11:11 PM ET #2

A closer look reveals some interesting changes .

Could it possibly be that the roles have reversed a bit ?

Cincinnati closed out the year in 2008-2009 with 3 straight victories , and while the level of opposition was rather weak ( Washington , @ Cleveland , and vs Kansas City ) the scores reveal the transformation this team has gone though .

a 20-13 win , a 14-0 win , a 16-6 win

Hardly Bengal-like scores

These all amount to giving up an average of 6.3 PPG to close out the year .

Coincidentally , Cincinnati ...a team that only won 4 games the entire year won 3 on the strength of its defense .

The Bengals began the 2009-2010 campaign giving up 18 points on average to the Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers .

A freakish play at the end of the Denver game is all that separates this team from having won their last 5 regular season games .

It is widely believed that with the leadership of a healthy and of the best quarterbacks in the league, the Cincinnati's offense will continue to improve .

Perhaps , it won't light up the scoreboard as they did on a weekly basis prior to Carson Palmer's injury , but then again , they won't have to !

This defensive unit is perhaps the best that the Bengals have had in a very long time .

As it is , only 2 spots separate Pittsburgh and Cincinnati on yards given up ( Pittsburgh 9th & Cincinnati 11th )

The other categories :

Cincinnati 11th , Pitt 8th against the rush

Cincinnati 16th , Pitt 19th against the pass

Cincinnati 12th , Pitt 6th in points allowed

Cincinnati's defense is credited with a qb rating of 87.22, while

Pittsburgh's defense is credited with a qb rating of 92.61 for the opposition .

Cincinnati again lands in the upper tier stopping 3rd down conversions at 36.0 % , while Pittsburgh has given up 40.7 % of third down plays to the opposition thus far.

And perhaps the biggest surprise thus far :

Cincinnati leads the league in sacks with 9 , far ahead of the 2 that the stellar defensive unit of the Steelers has been able to create .

Yes, this is early in the season , and Pittsburgh faced a tough Tennessee team and had to go to chicago to play the Bears .

Cincinnati faced what is begginning to prove a tougher than expected Denver Broncos team , and then played @ Green Bay .

Noone is to argue that this victory was surprising ( Bengals were 9 point dogs ) and legitimate .

What the Bengals accomplished is what this team' s defenses could not do in the past , and that is get stronger and play better in the second half .

Cincinnati gave up 3 points to Green Bay in the second half , and should have only given up 3 points to Denver in week 1 .

This ability to play through the 4 quarters is what gives the Bengals a chance this sunday .

Meanwhile , the offense showed balance in both passing and running the ball for nearly the same amount of yards .

Cedric Benson and all 220 pounds of him gives this team a tougness that they will need come Sunday .

The former Bears running back bruised his way to 141 yards , while Carson Palmer distributed the ball to 8 different receivers making this team far from one-dimensional .

On defense Antwan Odom ( 5 ) and Ray Maualuga ( 1 ) combined for 6 sacks causing havoc on every play .

This defense now swarms to the ball , and puts pressure on the quarterback with hurried throws and hits .

Pittsburgh comes in with more interceptions than touchdowns and a QB rating of 85.6 .

Ben was sacked 5 times in the game against Tennessee and once vs the Bears .

While Tennessee' s defense is notoriouslty tough to run on , Pittsburgh only managed 23 yards on 36 rushes ( 1.56 ypr) , while against Chicago they managed to eclipse the 100 yard mark ( a solid 4.77 ypr ) , the Steelers have become more of a passing team perhaps getting away from the identity of the team that has given fits to Bengals team for so long .