We have to start talking about this week 8 game

Can you confirm this?

This from an ai overview when asked if Shawn Smith the referee for Sunday's game is controversial:
Shawn Smith is considered a controversial referee,  largely due to statistics showing a high number of penalties that favor road teams.
Make of that what you will, it doesn't mean much to me but we'll see. 

[Quote: Originally Posted by undermysac]The Bears are flying high after winning 4 in a row after an 0-2 start. Their competition hasn't been tough, minus Minnesota and GB who were their 2 losses. They've recently been to the DC area and beat the Commanders, same trip travel wise. The run game has finally taken form for the Bears, it's Ben Johnson's bread n butter.  The Bears are the only team in the NFL to score 21 or more points in every game. The defense has also turned it around under Dennis Allen. They lead the league in forced turnovers. The pass rush from the front 4 is still mediocre at best, but Dennis Allen's blitz package has been dialed up of late getting a lot of pressure on qb's. I'll let all of you talk about Caleb. I'm not seeing the guy everyone expected as of yet. When we're seeing a lot of the younger qb's in the league turning into great players, we're still waiting for Caleb to join that conversation. To his credit, he's not turning the ball over much at all. But he's not getting the ball out on time, it's 1,2,3 with him and then goes into his hero scramble mode. What to make of the #? This spread opened Ravens -6, and quickly got bet to -7. That's not the regular Joe's betting this early in the week. Just think about it like this...the Bears won 4 in a row and the Ravens lost 4 in a row. And you have to lay 7(win by 8 or more) with a 1-5 team to cash your ticket. That's insane, but I think the books know it's a smash spot. I was looking for an opener of Ravens -3 or so. And even then wouldn't it still be hard(for the average bettor) to be on the Ravens side? What do y'all think?[/Quote

If Lamar was assumed to be playing, there was no chance the line would be only 3. It is still the Bears, at Baltimore...

@undermysac

 Can’t see the line -7 if Lamar is out

We often expect a heavy dose of Henry and often that does not transpire but with Lamar less than 100% and Ricard back in the fold I really believe he will get his share this week. 

@KarmaStateU2024

 "If Lamar was assumed to be playing, there was no chance the line would be only 3. It is still the Bears, at Baltimore..."

The Bears are 4-2, the Ravens are 1-5

Bears SRS(simple rating system) #20(-1.43)

Ravens SRS #25(-4.93)

Teamrankings.com predictive rankings:

Bears #20(-0.5)

Ravens #16(+0.5)

Sagarin:

Bears #18(20.27)

Ravens #12(21.92)

DVOA:

Bears #19(-3.2%)

Ravens #25(-12.4%)

As you can see, my guess of Ravens -3(with Lamar) was more than generous. 

And this is why I started the thread. -7 is an insane # on paper. How we bet this game is all that matters.

Currently the Ravens are getting 58% of the tickets, and 65% of the cash.

I'll be at this game on Sunday, leaving tomorrow for Baltimore. I'll fan boy up this weekend and won't bet on it.

I think that the Ravens roll, but who knows. Maybe Ben Johnson has changed the culture enough to change the Bears ways.

Good Luck all 

Interesting. A point there, a point here, a missed opportunity there, all little things add up when a spread gets covered or not.

Didn't notice till now...

The Bears play on Thursday next week at Cincinnati. The Bengals are a pk(-115)

Not sure if it matters for Sunday or not

P.S. The best open air drug market is east Baltimore 

Here's some SDQL

Teams on a four-game losing streak favored by 6 or more (The opponents here were usually abysmal teams, like the 90's Bengals, 2000's Lions and Browns. I don't think this is particularly relevant):

ATS: 25-23-1

Teams on a four-game losing streak, favored by six or more, but I added facing a "good opponent" which I arbitrarily decided was two games above .500:

ATS: 0-1

(2014 week 17 where the 49ers failed to cover the -6 in a meaningless game to the playoff bound Cardinals who had a third string QB.)

Teams on a four-game losing streak, favored by three or more, vs a good opponent two games above .500:

ATS: 7-2

(ATS: 6-0 excluding week 17 games)

Teams on a four-game losing streak, favored by six or more, vs an opponent on a four-game winning streak:

No results

Teams on a four-game losing streak, favored by three or more, vs an opponent on a four-game winning streak:

ATS 3-1

(The three winners here were also in the previously mentioned ATS 6-0 query, so don't double count these as positive trends). Here's the games:

Oct 29, 2000, Bucs -3, Buccaneers 41 Vikings 13

Dec 26, 1999, Seahawks -3, Seahawks 23 Chiefs 14

Dec 18, 1994, Eagles -4.5, Giants 16 Eagles 13

Nov 12, 1989, Rams -3, Rams 31 Giants 10

Saw this on you tube this morning. 

Teams won 20% or fewer of their games and are favorites VS an opponent  with a winning record have won ATS 56% of the time since 2003.

But if a -3 favorite or larger they then are 30-14 ATS.

Also Harbaugh off a bye is 10-7 ATS.

Think about this, Bears are 4-2, Ravens are 1-5.

Pts per plays margin .......

Ravens 20th (-.038)

Bears 23rd (-.051).

Seems many are taking ravens simply because they think the number is rather high and the oddsmaker would never put that number unless they are "expecting" ravens to win handily. 

Feels like a ravens smash spot.

@SharpCheddar

 Thank you so much for that 

I figured the 4 team win streak vs 4 team losing streak one never happened.

If you could do one where a 1-5 team is favored by 6 or more vs a 4-2 team it'd be much appreciated. 

Thanks for your post.

The points per play margin lines up more with Sagarin's and TeamRankings spread.

Not so much with profootball reference and dvoa.

Yet if we go off pts per play, Sagarin, and team rankings, we should see a spread anywhere from Ravens -2.5 to -4.5

This seems to be the case imo.

They're putting the Ravens at a premium, every point is important in this racket. Ofcourse for those who think that the Ravens will smash, might as well take an alt line like -9.5 or more if you are feeling it.

Otherwise, there's slight value on the Bears +7/+6.5 if you are playing it by the #'s.

Ofcourse there are other angles that could play that make the game look nothing like the #'s are telling us.

The one angle that I particularly paid attention to was Ben Johnson vs Zach Orr, and Dennis Allen vs Todd Monken. I posted it earlier in the thread.

Good Luck everyone 

@rosswin97

 Just telling you what the line should be, how it's determined by power rankings and such.

This line is off for whatever reason, I can't tell you why.

Just landed in Baltimore. Looking for a fitsumbitch by the name of BigRed, apparently he likes shrimp. Anyone see him?

@undermysac

 Ravens are -51.5 vs the spread and 1-5 SU ATS. They play their next two on the road. Gained 173 yds rushing vs Rams last week and controlled the clock…but only scored 3 points. Now, Jackson and his 24-3 record vs the NFC is back under center. I would lay 7.5 easily here. But.

I just really smell a scenario where Chicago might have the key to the back door…cover. Good luck with the Blackbirds. I’m passing, but I’ll be cheering you on.