This line is extremely FISHY

How the hell are the Raiders favored by -3.5 when we just saw the worst play from the raiders and the browns defense just showed us how great they can be..

shaduer must be this terrible which is super concerning for the Browns but this line is BEGGING for Browns money..

seems like a huge trap line but I cannot touch the Raiders after what I saw against Dallas.. fishiest line on the board in my opinion..

@ChOmP

 Idk how you can justify betting that game period. The raiders have to turn over shaduer multiple times to cover that number which is highly likely, but Geno could be so bad this game…a shutout is a realistic possibility. Safest bet in the game is the under which could be risky with both teams potentially scoring on defense?!

Sanders may be the worst QB in history. Raiders will likely blitz most plays and Sanders will run backwards and make mistakes. Think it would be a pick em if Gabriel was playing or Raiders-1. Browns defense is by far the best unit on field but they definitely have noticeable road and home splits. I don't know how anyone could bet this game. 

I agree with the above statement. Why would you want to be involved with this garbage game? Its a coin toss between 2 awful teams. Do you really feel good being on either side? Best bet is probably special teams defensive score and/or both QBs to throw a pick

I agree that it is hard to play a team that is bad.  It is especially hard to play one when both teams are bad.

But there is no such thing as a 'trap game'.

The line opened here with the market maker books and really has not moved.  The retail books opened it a bit lower and it quickly got bought up.

What would you have thought the line should be.  If you really felt the line should be much lower then why would you not see an edge and play it.

But a lot of it is just LV back home after an embarrassing national TV loss, CLV has not won on the road, and LV has a better QB.  It is obviously the lowest spot of the season for LV while CLV has been at their level for a few games now and the last two games have kept them close.

This game also has the lowest total for a reason.  You can easily see LV winning the field position game in a FG-type game.  Certainly Sanders and that OFF may provide LV with a couple of short fields to maybe get a TD and maybe 2.  But with a field position and FG-type game, you can easily see a 20-19 for LV and 17-13 for CLV.

But it is for sure a great game to give a pass to.

But if the line was 'bad' the market would have moved it by now.

I played the U37 when it came out.  But I doubt I add to it at any point this week.

Like an old guy told me many years ago, "If you have a great defense and no offense, you will lose a lot of 3-0 games."

@brn2loslive2win

@mchriste619

@Yanasaur

you wouldn’t believe it but there is always someone who wants to put money on the raiders or games like this I would say this is the game to do it..

 I’m not touching this game I was just shocked that browns are underdogs to the Raiders.. I do think raiders are the right side and if you are a raiders fan and you were thinking of possibly playing the raiders I would say ML.. but I am staying far far away from this game.. 

I disagree with this a bit.  No way at all is Gabriel 3/3.5 points better than Sanders at this point in their careers.

You have to keep in mind Sanders got no starting reps last week.  The team also did not block well and the WRs did not finish routes or run them correctly a few times when he was in.  This is not to take anything away from him on a couple of his bad throws that were all on him.

Yes, Sanders needs to get step up in the pocket and get rid of the ball quicker.  Going backwards and taking sacks is not good; neither is throwing INTs.  But he actually made some decent plays.  So, it was. not all bad for him considering the circumstances -- especially against a BLT defense that has been better every week lately.

I am certain the coaches will work on a couple of crucial things with him this week.

There is a very good breakdown of every play he did online that is actually worth watching.

Line says raiders will win 

Consider this .........

Pts per Plays Margin......... how much a team outplays or gets outplayed by their opps.

Browns 31st in league, LV 27th.

But here is the kicker ......

Browns by far the worst team on the road (-.309)

At home .077 actually  good at home.

The largest difference between road/home of any team in think.

No other team is close to (-.300) on the road.

Raiders  (-.33) at home. Not that bad, playing opps pretty close.

@Raiders22

The info pretty much tells the exact story you are seeing ChOmP, play has to be on the Raiders.

Books know it, hence the line.

I think it is the Browns defense is super-human at home but not on the road.

I just looked it up.

Browns defense on the road is 31st the only team worse is the Bears 32cd on the road.

Both teams are the only 2 teams giving up more then .500 per every play run.

I think only 3 or so teams giving up .400 or better on the road.

@theclaw

 I think it is the Browns defense is super-human at home but not on the road.

This is sort of true, but only in one aspect -- their Pass Defense.  I am not sure that LV will able to exploit this though.

For example:

PS/Play at home:

Pass Defense 3rd - .387

Pass Rush 4th - .246

Run Defense 1st - .483

PS/Play away:

Pass defense 26th - .125

Pass Rush 1st - .285

Run Defense 1st - .480

The Browns are much different on the road compared to at Home...They haven't won a road game since week 2 of the 2024 season. 

At Home they tend to be good ATS though 

The Browns are due for road win soon...Will see

@Raiders22

 Fair points. It's true he didn't get first team reps in practice and Ravens defense is definitely better than Raiders. Sanders just screams Johnny Manziel to me and I see him having multiple TOs most games and taking too many sacks. Geno has been absolutely awful this year and the Raiders have probably the worst offensive line in football with LT Miller still out and they lost another lineman, Powers-Johnson. I'd take Raiders ML with a gun to my head if had to pick and play the under. Dillon at least wasn't turning the ball over.

The Browns are 0-13 SU on the road past 13 & 0-10 ATS on the road past 10. Eventually the Browns will win &/or cover on the road. I for one will not be betting them hoping it happens.

@mchriste619

 With only 16 attempts in that situation it is hard to use as a case against Sanders.

With 184 attempts it is enough to use against Gabriel.  He has the worst PE/Play of any starter.

Just simply not throwing INTs is not good enough.  You have to be efficient and move the ball.

Gabriel has not proved he can do this.  I would use this opportunity to try Sanders and see if he can at least do better than the -.095 that Gabriel has.

I am not a pro-Sanders guy.  I simply think Gabriel has had enough time.  So, let him recover and use that time to see if Sanders has more 'potential'.

@ChOmP

 Browns are terrible on the road!

Raiders are the play i can see the hook scaring people off.. I’m picking them in my picks but the hook scares me 

If Gabriel was playing, I had this game at Browns -3.5.  With Sanders starting, I agree with the Book, Raiders -3.5.  A 7 point swing because you have an apprentice rookie QB starting his first game who wasn't good enough to beat out the other rookie QB for playing time. 

The best bet is Max Crosby and Miles Garrett over on sacks and sprinkle some on a parlay.  Those two are going to wreak havoc.

@ChOmP

You have 3 options: 1. Bet it as-is.  -3.5 -115. or 2. Lay more juice -160 and buy the line down to 2.5.  3.  Pass.

Be careful here guys Shadeur might just get a W

I am not sure how you are measuring that.

What does all that mean ?

Using  yards per points ...............

Browns at home rank 7th best defense at home of all teams, wow crazy. Opps need to gain 16.8 yards to score 1 point.

But on the road dead last and not even close. Their opps need only 10.1 yards to score 1 pt.

No other team is below 11 or even below 11.5.

The 2cd worst is 11.5 with 1 other team 11.8 yards needed to score 1 pt.

No other teams defense is below 12 yards needed to score 1 pt.

That might be Browns offense putting the defense in bad positions as was the case VS Lions in Detroit.

If you look at overall stats Browns defense held Lions to well below averages, I don't think Lions offensive stats would have cracked the top 20 team averages on the season at the time.

Many of their offensive  stats, not just 1 or 2 i am talking about.

But it did not matter pts per plays is a reflection of all-around play including poor offensive play that puts the defense into bad spots.

Now with Sanders starting we'll see what kind of spots he puts the Browns defense into. It's  only the Raiders .

@theclaw 

It is just to point out how efficient they are in two phases on defense and less efficient in one phase on the road.

For example on Pass Defense:

At Home their Pass Rating against is 4th at 74.0

On the Road their Pass Rating against is 31st at 110.4

At home their Pass Defense WAR is 5th at 1.1

On the Road their Pass Defense WAR is 21st at 0.0

The same with EPA/Play as PS/Play

Now it is different with the other two phases:

Pass Rush:

At Home their BT+MT% is 3rd at 8.4%

On the Road their BT+MT% is 2nd at 9.3%

At Home their Sack% is 1st at 12%

On the Road their Sack% is 6th at 8.5%

At Home their Pass Rush WAR is 4th at .7

On the Road their Pass Rush WAR is 2nd at .8

The same with their PS/Play

Run Defense:

At Home their BT+MT% is 17th at 10.6%

On the Road their BT+MT% is 12th at 10.4%

At Home their stuff% is 1st at 27.9%

On the Road their stuff% is 1st at 30.8%

At Home their Run Defense WAR is 1st at .8

On the Road their Run Defense WAR is 1st with .9

Same with EPA/Play

So, the total yards and total rushing yards may skew a bit with just a small sample size of games each.  

But the efficiency numbers will take out a lot of the ‘noise’ when a team has a lead and is trying to run out the clock.  Or if your team is behind and is throwing every down and turning it over or going three and out and giving the ball back for the other team to get more trash-time yards.

So, the efficiency numbers indicate that they are very, very solid on Run Defense both at home and on the road.  They are also excellent with their Pass Rush at home and on the road.

Their ‘weakness’ that leads to the skewing seems to be their Pass Defense is much better at home than it is on the road.

My point is that I do not think that LV has what it takes to take advantage of this weakness.  I do not think they can hold the pass rush off enough.  I do not think they can run the ball effectively enough at all to slow the pass rush down.  I do not think Geno gets rid of the ball quick enough.  I do not have confidence that the receivers will run clean enough routes to take advantage of the only ‘weakness’ on CLV’s Defense.

This is not to say that other facets of the game will not matter more, like the LV Defense against the CLV Offense, etc.

This game is a simple handicap to me. We’ve all watched the Raiders offensive line all season. Geno has almost no time in the pocket at all week after week. I honestly don’t think Geno is a bad qb. But if you put just about anyone behind that bad of pass blocking you’ll see disastrous results. 

I played the under at 36.5. I think it’s still a play at 36. It’s the kind of bet that you make and if you lose because of crazy special teams or defensive scores you just deal with it and move on. As far as the side goes it’s Cleveland or nothing imo. To bet on Geno behind that line with Myles Garrett on the other side is something I’m not willing to do. Sanders might just come out and play well. He might be worse than last week. Who knows? But with the Raiders you know exactly what you’ll get. Geno running for his life, probably an interception and a fumble and possibly multiple of each, and an offensive unit that simply doesn’t have enough opportunities to develop plays. I’d love to see the odds on no touchdown.