Teams that you stay away during the regular season from your Betting?

I never have any luck with these teams because I don't know how to handicap them or they are so inconsistent week to week.   

Not in any particle order; Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, New Orleans Saints, and Arizona Cardinals.

Tampa Bay

@Wizerguy Thanks, Tampa Bay is not an easy one for me too! I didn't want to list to many that I stay away from. lol

@DefenseWinsSB

 I put a small bet against my team, if they lose I win, if they win and I lost my bet, still very happy. HaHa. Steelers and Patriots befuddles me too!

@Guy_2U

 It's Arizona for me. When they lay down they lay down.

jets

I NEVER bet a team as a dog to cover if they have a WINNING percentage of 20% or less 

This is a great topic.  I identify the teams to stay away from largely based on the QB play.  So, last year as an example, I never bet on the NYG, DAL (w/ cooper rush), LVR, or TEN.  Not once were they considered, regardless of how many points you are getting.     The QB will dictate in large part the success of your bet, so it's best to start there....  and a QB that doesn't make good decisions, or can't execute, is a cancer to your bet.  

[Quote: Originally Posted by Daddy_Freddie]I NEVER bet a team as a dog to cover if they have a WINNING percentage of 20% or less[/Quote]

This is a sound strategy to use once you have a large enough sample size, but early in the season, you will need another determinant. 

Vikings as favorites.  This is a real good dog team but in the last 2 seasons have only been favored 6 times.

 Young Qb and I’m not certain about their running game to carry them in tough down and distances.  They appear to be lined as a strong team in week 1 as road chalk but I’m not so sure.  

Bears might open up strong with offseason prep and new coaching.  This should be a wild ride. Viking good dog no trust or belief as favorites until they burn me consistently.

Jones only had 20 rushes in 3 games and only twice had 100+  twice.  Things could change at any moment but I have my eye on a potential team that could fail in certain situations or match ups

all teams are in play if you ask me 

You are making a mistake.

This query is a very easy one:

D and WP < 20.1

ATS:  927-817-41 (-0.1,53.2%)

Dogs with a straight-up winning percentage of less than 20.1 cover 53.2% of the games.  The Sports Database has data all the way back to the 1989 season; that is why there are so many query results.

These are the five most recent seasons:

2020  58.1%

2021  53.4%

2022  62.1%

2023  51.1%

2024  42.1%

2024 was a particularly bad season for weak dogs.  While it could mark a turning point where favorites begin covering more than 50% of the games, I think it is more likely that last season was an outlier.

Good luck this season, DF.

Rams fck me every time. Bet for or against doesn’t matter.

Falcons are the easy call. But it usually takes a bet or two to refresh my memory each season.

49ers lost so many players on defense. The public will lose on them. Bears never draft the right QB and never have a good offensive line.

@DogbiteWilliams

 Good info DBW. As far as 2024 being an outlier I wait and see if a new norm is being formed. Those who are early on a new paradigm get the cabbage. Rather be early and wrong than stuck in quicksand.

I truly value all of your betting insights, everyone!