Pittsburgh Steelers

My data Projections say:

Cleveland Browns: 11.01

Pittsburgh Steelers: 29.25

The Spot:

Pittsburgh coming off bye.

Cleveland played London last week. (surprised Browns didn't opt for bye, then play division game)

Pittsburgh returning Highsmith & Porter.

Tomlin after a bye is his last 18 is 14-4

The steelers after a bye @ home win by an average score of 11.75 pts.

Cleveland does have Gabriel @ QB, which is a + for them over Flacco. (Flacco was a TO machine, King of Negative plays)

Cleveland Judkins is the real deal. He has OROY potential. 

I like this spot for steelers.

I concur 

good luck to us

@TJZags598

 Like Steelers here as well. I think Pittsburgh will get more pressure on Gabriel than the Vikings did and we may get a few turnovers out of it. I like a low scoring game, lots of field goals, and not many tds out of Cleveland. If Pittsburgh can score 2 tds I think they get the cover 

I am surprised by the lack of praise for Dillon Gabriel in the mainstream media, but then again, I'm not. He played spectacular IMO and were it not for Stefanski going vanilla in their last 2 offensive series and playing not to lose, the Browns would have won that game.

Gabriel threw 2 TDs, no picks, and he moved around in the pocket, he has to as he is short at 5'11". He seemed to read the exotic defenses thrown at him. His RB Judkins ran for 100+ and can the Steelers stop the run? I am not so sure they can. 

You guys might be right about this and the spot seems perfect for Pittsburgh but a lot of times they play down to their opposition. I see another tight game, a rock fight to the end. 

I liked that the Steelers are off a BYE they havent lost a game after a BYE since 2016 but also forgot that they have a short week vs cincy . From what I've seen Steelers are 12-6 SU before Thurs but half of those wins are by less than a TD...

Tomlin has a good record vs rookie QB's. 24-6 SU, but wish I knew what the ATS record was. I'm gonna guestimate the ats record has to be something like 18-12 ATS. If anyone has the ats stat on it that would be great 

Pitt is going to sleep walk their way to an AFC North title.

The rest of their schedule is a breeze minus the Chargers otr. Their other tough games are at home, vs the Packers, Colts and Bills.

Lucky so far. And who would think that every starting qb in the afc north got hurt or traded by week 6...

I agree, should be a smash spot here.

Good luck TJ.  

@TJZags598

 Seems like a no-brainer, jumped off the page at me GL

@TJZags598

Cleveland Browns: 11.01

Pittsburgh Steelers: 29.25

Pitt has only scored over 29 points once (achilles/Glenn/Revenge game vs. NYJ)...

Think ARod puts 28 up against CLV D?  I realize the Bye/London angle, but he may struggle. Is warren back, I know Gainwell showed up!

Gabriel still an unknown factor, but looked decent vs. Vikes (pitt 24-21)(MN -21-17 Clv), but he has had more reps and I can't get past the D Vs. Rogers?

Rogers=statue may have to dink n dunk to Warren and Gainwell then a quick slant to DK all game.

Gabriel=Squirrelly and elusive and hit 8 receivers.

On the fence with this one, my friend! 6 points is not helping! haha

Data Projections oh brother

@getcarter

 All good points

My projections are based on data; Pittsburgh has faced defenses with a Qb rating of 84. Cleveland defense  Qb rating is 104, #26 in the NFL.

This is the  easiest pass defense rogers will face.

Pittsburgh has been performing @ 113% of their opponents Points Per Play. Cleveland gives up .445 PPP which give you about .49PPP

Pittsburgh should get about 59 plays.

Now, game flow can be slowed by the weather, turnovers, etc.

Cleveland has an excellent run defense, but their pass defense is pretty bad. Cleveland also leads the NFL in turnover in their own end, granted mostly due to Flacco. Gabriel will have a lot more trouble with Pittsburgh than Minnesota. Pittsburgh is second to Jacksonville with a 22.7% forced turnover/drive ratio, which is pretty ridiculous, considering the injuries they have had.

@Oviewan

 On special Team Cleveland has a net 36 Yard punting average, which ranks 26

Cleveland is last in Field goal kicking.

Cleveland defense starting point is 23 in the NFL

Pittsburgh is #7

All just data. Data give you "Potential" now you need to factor in things like spot, coaching, injuries, and SOS, all which i like in Pittsburgh's favor.

But, the football doesn't not bounce straight.

Sorry - but that data never matters when betting on sports.

Ranking defenses against offenses and all that info is a waste of time.

Sorry but if that's what makes you feel like you are making the correct play.

I’m sure the professional bettors feel the same. I’m pretty sure they just wake up Sunday morning and pick their favorite teams. Data?! How foolish!!

@Oviewan

 Data is the outcome of performance.

How else do you compare?

As for "making the right play" I find myself on the right side a lot more than the wrong side. But hey, you be you!

What professional bettors?

Can't even listen anymore to any of the shows. They all have a bet now.

The so called professional bettors have their own analysis also to make you think they know something and then they lose.

There are no professional bettors anymore. You can't make a living off this shit.

Besides why do analysis? Vegas all ready did it for you it's called a point spread.....duh. 

@brn2loslive2win

 LOL. Some people think that pro's just "know" football.

casinos-" the book"-uses owns more data than anyone else, probably more than everyone combined,  but gamblers shouldn't use it.

@Oviewan

"Besides why do analysis? Vegas all ready did it for you it's called a point spread.....duh."

You are right. and every football game lands right on that spread. Amazing the accuracy.

Waste of time.

You win more than you lose based on what team has more yardage on punt returns and where the defense is ranked compared to the other team, etc.

Not to argue anymore but you win more than you lose? 

Like I said it's called a point spread. Have fun doing all your homework. Vegas all ready did it.

You are right. and every football game lands right on that spread. Amazing the accuracy.

Just shows you what a waste of time it is. Not that it's correct, its that it doesn't matter. 

Just like it's fixed when you lose. It's a crap shoot but you keep doing your Data and analysis.

We all have access to the same shit. 

Anyway have fun.

CLEVELAND to the Bank. Ha. Move that number to for me.

@TJZags598

This is the  easiest pass defense rogers will face.  Its not the Pass defense, but the Pass RUSH vs. immobile Rodgers.

Now, game flow can be slowed by the weather, turnovers, etc.  All variable unpredictable, should be nice weather...turnovers could be a Dillon PIC or a Rodgers Pic or Fumble due to getting crushed seveal times by Clev pass rush?

Not knocking your potential pic, just wanting to put 'my thoughts' on this game, maybe trying to talk me into my own pic?! haha

Just throwing thoughts out there?  I like Rodgers, Like Shittsburgh (Cincy guy), but the CLV D and Dillon potential, a story book potential, or he gets hurt and Sanders proves everyone wrong???

Gut pick...Christ, Clv ML... sucks, but the unknown variables can be fun to root for?

GL dude!!!