NFL WEEK 5 ..........................2024

Yea, Bengals look pathetic while Lions look like world-beaters, very good spot to back the Bengals ................

Other system ..............3-2

Eagles -4 over Broncos --- .55 units

I hate to back this Eagles team but the method does call for a fade on the Broncos so I have to take it.

Was some -3.5 but now I see -4.5's and -4 so doubtful it would have gotten down to -3.

Best of luck, but the game simply does not pass the eye test. Cleveland has shut teams down, especially the run. This includes Cincy. The Lions ran all over Cleveland last week. The Lions are tops in scoring and Bengals defense are 30th. I feel the Lions will run roughshod. I don't think Cincy can score with the Lions. The Lions pass rush looked great last week.  

All very true ...............

However that's not how it always works. Lions have KC on deck then the Bucs and they just beat-up Browns.

This is a spot they very well  could come out very flat as it is too easy for them to beat Bengals and they don't need much motivation to do it and with KC on deck no point in hurting themselves this week.

This is why sports betting is not easy.

According to PR II the 9ers should of beat the Rams by .54 of a point.

In other words a very close game and as it turns out it was a close down-to-the-wire game either team could of won.

Interesting that when PR II says a team should win by less then 4 pts they actually win only 3 of 12 games or 3-9 SU.

But when they should win by 4 pts or more they have actually won 47 of 52 games. Or 47-5.

That is most likely better then normal of PR II. Since I never track it I don't really know but I am aware of it to some degree.

By year's end most playoff teams play on the field will be within 4 pts of their margin of victory.

So in other words each teams play on the field and their margin of victory will even out over time.

Some teams get way ahead in either play on the field or margin of victory but that is not sustainable  longer term.

A teams margin of victory has to be within reason of the teams play on the field.

MY OTHER SYSTEM is based on this regression and play on the field and margin of victory evening out .

Just wanted to point this out as it is not some simple trend .

The Bounce Factor ...........

Titans +8.5 ...... 1 unit play

Bucs +3.5 .........1 unit play

Other system .............

Bills +7.5 .......... .5 unit play

Eagles -4 .......... .5 unit play

Regression play ........

Bengals +10.5 .......... .5 unit play

@theclaw

 Bills plus.  

Yes -7.5 ...............................

Top 5 Pts per Plays Margin ................

1. Seahawks .226

2. Lion's .177

3. Ravens .159

4. Colts .149

5. Vikings. .107

6. Broncos .106... missed by a whisker

With Bills, Wash, Eagles,Packers rounding out the top 10.

Highly likely at least 3 of the top 5 will make the playoffs 

And could be 4 of the top 5 so if you are considering and futures plays this info possibly could help.

@theclaw

 doesn’t get many plays, but gets three in one day OK buddy

@theclaw

 Thankyou for posting consistently  I appreciate it

One question bc my info is pointing to Cin Bengals +14 this week

since Cincy didn't cover the +10 this week are they still in regression mode even tho they scored 24 points?

i hope you're still liking Cincy this week

I'll have all this as week goes on once I break-down all the games.......................

Remember, what I said was Bengals are close to a regression  play but they missed by only a small amount. As was Lions close as a fade. 

And I said if I wanted to stay disciplined I would pass on that game.

So Bengals  did not fit regression  perfectly the way I measure it. I'll  have to go over the game and see if they do fit this coming week.

week --- 2-3, won .35 units

last week --- 4-3, won .35 units

Season --- 9-12, lost 2.95 units

The Bounce Factor does it again ................2-0

My other system 0-2........

I did talk about this method coming off strong play is the time it could lose but after 2 losing weeks I up my plays to 1 unit.

Even off a .500 week I could up my plays. Last year this method didn't  lose back-to-back weeks once but did having losing record and a .500 record then one of those it produced the best record of the season the following  week.

This is pretty much how this method goes after charting it for like 20 years or so.

So I am not overly surprised to see an 0-2 record because it was bound to happen after a 7-2 run weeks 2 and 3 when I didn't  make any plays, then 3-2 last week, 10-4 in those 3 weeks. 

I trust this method , just need to be patient the wins will come.

Bengals were not any official regression  play as I talked about but they did hang in there down 11 twice.

Once the score was set at 11 instead of 10 I pretty much expected a loss.  I did consider buying it to 11 , wow that would have been brutal with the safety with what, 5 seconds left.

@theclaw

 Thankyou for your response

 for me GB is giving too many points in the trend that I have them in 

my trends are only for the last 2 years tho

Those look ahead don’t move these guys nearly as much as college, I’d stop using that. The Bills lost because people get lethargic when 4-0 to 5-0 in the NFL. And they are suspect especially against a division team that was a bad spot for Buffalo. The NFL is about bad spots for good teams and good teams off losses. That’s what I look for. Injuries are also key. 

Close game regression is real. Your analysis before the start of the year played a big part in my taking the jags tonight. Thanks Claw. 

Yea has to be Bengals or nobody play ..........

Yep  ...........

KC 0-3 in close 1 score games this year after being 11-0 last year.

They can't win a close game to save their life.

Hey, hey, hey people.......KC now needs to win 11 of the final 12 games to go OVER 12.5 wins .

Will they do it ?

They need to win 10 of final 12 games to go OVER 11.5 wins this season.

Will they do this ?

Feeling pretty good right now about those 2 futures plays but Mahomes, Ried and Spags can't be counted out just yet.

One more loss though in the next few games would be great.

How about this week losing to the Lions which is a very real possibility. 

I highly doubt they'd win 11 straight.