NFL WEEK 4 ......................2025

Season --- 3-6, lost 3.65 units

Packers -6.5 (-120) over Boys --- 1.2 units

I don't see Packers losing 2 straight on the road VS inferior teams especially with the crazy SU loss last week.

I missed the -6 at -110 though. Bummer, hopefully it don't come back to haunt me.

Could of even bought the 6.5 at -110 down to 6 at -120. Now I'm stuck with 6.5 at -120. Not good really since I knew the line was going up, when this happens I should be jumping quick to get the best lines and price, didn't do it here but hopefully it won't matter.

Do this enough and it will bite me at some point 

7 plays this week . ..... 5 with my other system. 

1 bounce factor play

And of course the Packers my week 1 top 3 largest performers off a 10 win season.

Got this off you tube last year.........

Fade teams off a 17 or better win and back teams off a 17 pt or more loss............

60%  ATS not sure over what period ot time though.

Lose by 28 pts or more then a dog of +4 or more...... 62 % ATS past 20 years from last year.

I got this this year.............

Back a Team off a 28 pt or more loss PLAYING opp off a 17 pt or more win ........58% ATS

 this is on Falcons off a 30 pt loss while Wash off a 17 pt win.

Ravens playing KC , one of those teams will be 1-3. Hopefully it is KC but Lamar is not going to sustain the way he is playing.

Impossible to do , at some point he will come back to earth. Will it be this week ?

Don't know but I suppose  he could not play as well but Ravens could still win SU.

Generally when the play is so far above any reasonable expectation when they finally come back to earth the play then is well below those expectations. 

It is coming, only a matter of when but it will be soon.

Seahawks are no. 1 in points per plays margin at .290.

Early in the season we will find teams off strong performances will be no. 1 but with few games to ave out these big performances this will not be sustained.

After week 1 Packers were no. 1 at .374 then after week 2 it was Ravens at .400.

Now it is Seahawks at .290.

The more games played these strong performances even out so then a team could sustain they're level of play. 

.290 would very likely be the best all-time.

Do we really believe this Seahawks team will be the best all-time ?

2007 Pats at 16-0 one of the greatest regular season teams was like .258 or similar to that.

I doubt the 85 Bears were .290.

So we know Seahawks are not sustainable these past couple of strong play  games.

But does not mean they will lose this week but  I'd side more with them regressing some.

They could still win by doing that but if they happen to have a bigger regression which is possible then they likely will lose.

Good luck Claw.  

@theclaw

good reads as usual Claw. Packers usually get the best of the Cowboys and should win by a TD

i also think Chiefs defense is still good and will give Lamar some trouble compared to the other 3 teams but certainly Lamar has a bit more weapons at his disposal. the o-line needs to play much better, period. half of it was lamar being skittish and holding the ball too long he had enough time to throw but lions secondary coverage was much better than expected. Don't see Ravens scoring 30+ points on this Chiefs defense. its so crazy that Ravens defense is wasting Lamar's performance. there was a graphic that showed Lamar's stats 9 TDs 0 INTs, and great passer rating, other past QBs that performed similarly went 3-0, but just 1-2 for Lamar. It's sad. I think if Ravens can beat KC it would be a confidence booster for this team they certainly need it. If Ravens lose might be looking at a long season where they will have to battle for the 7th seed or maybe miss the playoffs.

@theclaw

 I can't help but say same ole Cowboys after their defense was pummeled once again. I simply don't trust them to sustain anything positive with a secondary that is largely invisible. I also like GB to win and cover.

Yea and I hear they have several injuries..........

But Packers have some to.

Exactly, Ravens should be 3-0 with how Lamar is playing...............

I agree the KC is going to give him problems.

I did earlier today a look into what the Ravens issues might be.

I posted that at the end of my week 3 thread comment #40 & #42.

If you have a chance go read it and let me know from your perspective  because I know you follow them closely.

Maybe you noticed this or maybe not but it was a big surprise to me as something don't seem right about Ravens 1-2 with Lamar putting up historical performances.

@theclaw

GL Claw. I like Green Bay as well giving a good amount of points on the road and coming off a loss.

I really hesitate with KC though. Fading Baltimore off a SU loss seems like a bad idea. Ravens have only lost 2 in a row twice in the past 3 seasons, and one of those times was with Huntley at QB. 

A lot of people were calling for Chiefs regression this season. Maybe it's just Taylor Swift hate, but it's been happening. Yet people are still excited to grab them as a +125 at home. 

Only reason I see is that KC needs the game more in that division. Baltimore plays with Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and a Bengals team that will be missing Burrow for like 12 more games. So they could get into the hole 1-3 and still win the division. KC is cooked with a loss. 

I feel like there's a ton of live dogs this week, and it's very difficult for me to pick between them. 

Browning isn't that huge a step down from Burrow, Burrow's reputation has grown, obscuring the fact that Browning has played well over the years.

On the surface I agree..................

Be a little concerning that Lamar is playing on such a high unsustainable level and Ravens are only 1-2.

They should of won Bills game, no doubt, but with Lamar playing like he is Ravens should be 3-0.

And not very likely Lamar  continues on this level much longer. 

He could regress passing the ball  and Ravens can still win the game with no large spread to cover a win likely a cover.

I myself would pass on the game.

Other system ...........5 plays this week

Zona +1.5 over Seahawks --- .55 units

Seahawks a fade according to the method.

Plus .290 points per plays margin not sustainable. Supports the method.

Then Seahawks off back to back big wins and scoring 31 and 44 points.

At this point we don't know how good Seahawks might be and how good the offense could be so looking back maybe scoring 31 won't look so unsustainable. 

but winning back to back big wins is not sustainable.

I am not using this info to make the play , the info only helps support the play.

Possible Seahawks put 1 more big win up because being a division game but if they do I'll definitely be fading them next week as it will clearly be unsustainable.

Like zona here as well claw good luck buddy stay hot! Nice job on the weekly contest last week going 4-0 spend you gift card wisely claw. 

GL  on your play @theclaw 

Cards 

GL this week 

@theclaw

 Good stuff brother.  Thanks! God luck Brother.