NFL WEEK 3 .............................2025

Season --- 3-5, lost 2.6 units

I have some plays I could take action on but probably  won't. 

Lions +6 over Ravens

Pats +1.5 (-115) over Steelers

Colts -3 (-120) over Titans

Falcons -4.5 over Panthers

Colts a top 3 performer week look like they could become one of the bigger surprise stories in which case this would be another good indicator to back the Colts on top of the other indicator I am using.

Ravens play KC next week. Maybe they will get caught looking ahead with the idea they could really put this KC team in a hard spot with a win.

Meanwhile KC plays the Giants with Russ W. Off a very big game. Will they be looking ahead with the idea they could be 1-3 with a loss ?

But they can't  afford to lose to the Giants then play the Ravens.

Giants in a sandwich spot, should be an interesting game for sure KC has to bring a big game they can't risk another loss.

Anyone taking Giants + the points ?

@theclaw

 BOL this week 

I look at KC and my 1st thought is the number of one score games they play. A TD fav on the road makes me pause although many will say there is no way they lose again especially to the Giants. The flip side is the Chiefs are missing weapons and don't seem to be the juggernaut of a few years ago. I'm undecided but neither team makes me feel warm and fuzzy.

Exactly ................

Chargers laid a beat-down on the Raiders last night. Far more dominate then the final score would suggest.

Herbert beat Geno in QB Passer rating by a whopping 85 pts.

Geno 37 QBPR. he was up to his old tricks with 3 INT's which I talked about and on top of that he flat-out just played extremely poor.

Maybe it had alot to do with Chargers defense who did hold Mahomes to well below ave QBPR. 

Granted with limited weapons  but still.

2cd year with coach Harbaugh this team looks pretty solid at this point. 

Interesting Mahomes is no Brady, some of Brady's years he had no-name receivers but still did well offensively. When those recievers moved on they did not do much on their new teams.

GL 

According to PR II Chargers should of won by 23.61 Pts. Not 11 pts.

PR I would be even a larger margin because of the complete dominate passing of Chargers. As PR I is more pass heavy while PR II is more about balance.

  All the best this week Claw

Tough two weeks Claw, thankfully you have kept your plays manageable. Haven't played an NFL season where the faves were ahead weeks 1 and 2. I'll have to look at last season for comparison since I didn't play that year but as far as back as 15 years betting NFL I don't recall this happening it's always the dog leading the week 10-6, 11-5 ats sometimes 9-7. this is new to me.. 

Better luck this week Claw 

@theclaw

Early in the season but gotta think this is a must win for kc. Loss and 0 and 3 with games against Ravens, Bills, Lions...even lowly Raiders play them tough

Dogs ATS in weeks 1 and 2 by season:

2018  62.5%

2019  58.1

2020  51.6

2021  65.6

2022  54.8

2023  60.7

2024  54.8

2025  46.9

This season is an outlier, although 15-17 ATS is not that bad.

Falcons Defense is a Wrecking Crew.  Looks like a 7 point plus win.

I don’t really buy the lookahead for the Ravens. 

If the Ravens view the Chiefs like most of the public, it’s a team on the downfall. Injured, suspended, old. 0-2 and very beatable. Not a marquee win, but a game they should win.

Beating the Chiefs isn’t a signature win anymore.

Thank you .............

I actually did well in week 2 DK .

1-0 ATS on Packers over Wash and I went 3-0 ATS on possible plays that I could of taken action.

I did have 2 dogs of the the 4 dogs that did cover.

The game really killed me in week 1 was Bears up 17-6 giving up 3 TD's in 4th.  That was my best bet of week 1 with 3 units.

Yes favorites doing very well which does happen every once in awhile. At some point things should turn though .................

Yep...............

Should be ................

I do agree with what you are saying .........however history shows that when I team can't beat another team when that team is down the team will bury them if given a chance.

Pro athletes are very ego driven to put a team in a tough spot is a very big motivator for players especially  when they can't beat them in the playoffs and now could possible give them a tough road to make it to the playoffs

Top 5 teams in Pt's Per Plays Margin.................

1. Ravens .400

2. Packers .252

3. Zona .191

4. Rams .174

5. Chargers .158

Ravens definitely cannot sustain such a high rating. 

I wouldn't say it is enough to fade them but it points more to a fade.

When Ravens scored 40 pts VS Bills they only needed like 50 plays while the Bills needed something  like 75 plays to score 41 pts.

Bills rank 20th

Eagles 12th

KC 24th

After 4 weeks at least 3 of the top 5 usually will make the playoffs with 4 of the 5 doing it in a number of years.

Colts were no. 1 after werk 1 but dropped to I think 9th.

This is a good indicator to possible surprise teams that could make the playoffs.

I have a total of 7 plays I could make this week but probably  won't. 

I already posted 4 .........

Vikings -3 over Bengals

Zona +1.5 over 9ers

Chargers -2.5 (-112) over Broncos 

@theclaw

 I would be on the giants or nothing personally. The giants defense is playing well and the Chiefs offense is fairly average without the weapons. Mahomes has to put the entire offense on his back to be able to put up points. Russell and nabers showed chemistry last week and that moon ball is going to be difficult for anyone to stop. Nabers is a top tier receiver and only getting better. Watch out for Skattebo too as he becomes more involved in the offense.

Think I read that it is the 3rd most wins for favorites since 1981, I imagine ats would be just as good . Thank you for this DBW, the percentages would explain it 

@Digitalkarma

You're welcome, DK. 

Good points...................

Mahomes hasn't  been all that good ATS when over 3.5 favorite. But I think he may have improved  in that area recently.

I'd like to see Giants win SU but KC is going to be playing pretty desperate .

I saw on you tube teams 0-2 ATS are 55% in week 3.

I just heard the injuried receiver was cleared to play for KC.

Thinking about this, maybe the reason my regression  indicators did well for so many years as mostly on dogs.

And it does well in week 2 for those that don't regress in week.

My method was on 3 dogs this season week 1.