NFL WEEK 12 ..................2025

my other system ............... 8-6 ATS

Texans +6 (-115) over Bills --- 1.15 units

Also have 1 BF play and 1 new BF II play as of now. Post those when the line is going against the plays. 

I try to catch-up on my season to date record.

I had it written down but can't find it and I thought I had screen shot but can't find that.

I will go back to past 2 or 3 weeks and get my record hopefully today.

Let’s get it Claw!

@theclaw

 You can use the search function ... search for "User name contains ..." -> put your handle "theclaw" then you will see all your posts

 BTW, I am also on the TEXANS tonight ... good luck!

Good luck Claw.  

@theclaw

Luck, Claw

Good luck.

Thank you devil,  I'll give it a try. ...................

Generally I find each week is 10 pages back.  Sometimes I hit it exact but others may have to go up or down a few pages.

But this will be a big help if I can get it to work.

Nice hit.

Thanks. ...................

@theclaw

 The search function is on the right side near the top of the page. I tried to search for your handle "theclaw" and it works.

DVOA has Seahawks 1st and Titans last.

This from you tube.

In the history of DVOA no last place team has ever beaten a first place team which dates to 1978.

Will Titans make DVOA history ?

This is a possible spot it could happen as unlikely as it may seem.

Seahawks go deeper into regression having covered VS Rams.

Seahawks dominated the Rams except for TO's.

Which means Seahawks brought tremendous effort, energy and focus into that game.

The best players and teams live for these type big games especially being a division game with 1st place on the line.

Now think about how will Seahawks bring this same effort to Titans game ?

Not very likely to happen.

I think they come out as flat as a pancake. The game looks to easy.

How many times has a spot like this happened  in the Dvoa era ? Maybe never.

And remember things do reverse course in the 2cd half...........

Titans very well could make DVOA history.........

Titans +14 (-125) over Seahawks--- 2.5 units

Titans ML +700 --- .25 units to win 1.75 units

Titans 1st half +7 --- 1.1 units

Titans 1st half ML +370 --- .25 units to win .92 units

Titans to win both 1st and game +4000 --- .1 units to win 4 units

Tie 1st half Titans win game +5000 --- .1 units to win 5 units

I believe in the BF and will stay the course as unlikely as it may seem .......

Titans win both 1st half and the game.

I didn't put 1st half only 1st which could be 1st quarter but it should read 1st half.

Wow very ballsy Claw, your writeup has me tempted 

You want to hear something interesting ?

When I was looking at odds for Titans to win 1st half and win the game  I saw 1 book the odds were only +1000. Say what ? How is that possible  at such ridiculous low odds.

But then I saw another book the odds were only +900, think about that. Someone dropped major money on this play and I doubt the books move the odds this much if a square whale dropped money on it.

Seems there must be some respected person driving the odds to this low, what else could it be ?

What is the max bet could be made on this prop ?

Very odd for sure the odds could be off this much from book to book.

Another book was +3400 earlier in the week when I first considered this play. then some days later went up to +4000

Who in their right mind would bet this at +900 or +1000.

That's 9 to 1 and 10 to 1.

I'd need the 40 to 1 to even consider such a bet as only takes a very small bet to cash fairly decent.

New BF II ..................

This has a winning record i think either 4-2 or 5-2.

I did not track this method only because it doesn't get many plays per year but this year it has gotten more then normal.

Zona +3 (-115) over Jags --- 1.15 units

Interesting  about jags..........

Pts per Plays margin.........

Jags at home .116 on road (-.125)

Zona at home (-.078). Zona at home is better then the jags on the road and they are getting +3.

Jags overall ranked 18 to Zona 22cd not that big a difference for a road favorite. 

If we use yards per pts margin..........

Jags 6.8 at home 2cd best in the league believe it or not.

(-2.4) on the road

But Zona (-3.4) at home.

If we use yards per pts which is also a good metrics but I like pts per plays better.

Yards per pts margin......

Titans (-1.9) at home

Seahawks .9 on the road.

Does that look like a 13 pt favorite ?

Not hardly.

Seahawks 5 at home with Titans (-7.3) on the road.  Now that looks like a big favorite for sure.

That's a 12.3 difference  in Seattle to only a 2.8 difference inTenn.

Is 2.8 difference  reflective of the best team VS the worst ?????

@theclaw

 BOL this week, nice job on Texans 

As always great stuff claw !