a) Home divisional dogs week 1 since 2008....24-7 ATS (+6.7)....ON Browns, Falcons, Bears, Seahawks......think Packers might become a dog by game time.
b) Divisional away teams week 1 off three straight away wins the previous season....4-13 ATS (-3.9)....VERSUS Bengals, Lions
c) Divisional away dogs whose present opponent's next game is on Thursday before week 9.....31-5 ATS (+6.8)...ON Lions, NYG
a) Home divisional dogs week 1 since 2008....24-7 ATS (+6.7)....ON Browns, Falcons, Bears, Seahawks......think Packers might become a dog by game time.
b) Divisional away teams week 1 off three straight away wins the previous season....4-13 ATS (-3.9)....VERSUS Bengals, Lions
c) Divisional away dogs whose present opponent's next game is on Thursday before week 9.....31-5 ATS (+6.8)...ON Lions, NYG
d) A week 1 away dog who won 4, 5, or 6 regular season games the previous year.....71-37-6 ATS (+2.6)....if the game is between non-divisional opponents and their present opponent will be an underdog their next game this moves to 31-7-2 ATS (+8.0)...................ON Panthers, Raiders
d) A week 1 away dog who won 4, 5, or 6 regular season games the previous year.....71-37-6 ATS (+2.6)....if the game is between non-divisional opponents and their present opponent will be an underdog their next game this moves to 31-7-2 ATS (+8.0)...................ON Panthers, Raiders
e) I did a study a few years ago on new coaches in week 1, as home dogs, away dogs, home favorites and away favorites. All categories were about 50% in covering the spread, with the exception being new coaches as away dogs....they covered about 60% of the time......ON Raiders
e) I did a study a few years ago on new coaches in week 1, as home dogs, away dogs, home favorites and away favorites. All categories were about 50% in covering the spread, with the exception being new coaches as away dogs....they covered about 60% of the time......ON Raiders
f) Lamar Jackson has a career 32-16 ATS record on the road, including 10-3 ATS as a road dog, and he's 20-27 ATS as a home favorite.....similarly Kyler Murray is 21-8 as an away underdog and only 9-13 ATS as a home favorite.
g) Other relevant quarterback angles according to Marc Lawrence....Joe Burrow is 15-5 ATS as an away favorite, Bo Nix has been 6-0 as a home favorite, Trevor Lawrence has been 2-8 ATS as a home favorite, Russell Wilson has been 43-28 ATS as a dog, Sam Darold has been 11-5 ATS as a home dog, Baker Mayfield has been 11-20 ATS as a home favorite, Jayden Daniels has been 6-2 ATS as a home favorite.
f) Lamar Jackson has a career 32-16 ATS record on the road, including 10-3 ATS as a road dog, and he's 20-27 ATS as a home favorite.....similarly Kyler Murray is 21-8 as an away underdog and only 9-13 ATS as a home favorite.
g) Other relevant quarterback angles according to Marc Lawrence....Joe Burrow is 15-5 ATS as an away favorite, Bo Nix has been 6-0 as a home favorite, Trevor Lawrence has been 2-8 ATS as a home favorite, Russell Wilson has been 43-28 ATS as a dog, Sam Darold has been 11-5 ATS as a home dog, Baker Mayfield has been 11-20 ATS as a home favorite, Jayden Daniels has been 6-2 ATS as a home favorite.
e) I did a study a few years ago on new coaches in week 1, as home dogs, away dogs, home favorites and away favorites. All categories were about 50% in covering the spread, with the exception being new coaches as away dogs....they covered about 60% of the time......ON Raiders
Give me a few minutes and I'll have some head coaching numbers for you.
Self-reliance is more important than artificial intelligence.
e) I did a study a few years ago on new coaches in week 1, as home dogs, away dogs, home favorites and away favorites. All categories were about 50% in covering the spread, with the exception being new coaches as away dogs....they covered about 60% of the time......ON Raiders
Give me a few minutes and I'll have some head coaching numbers for you.
These numbers are regarding first time NFL head coaches, which includes Dallas, Jacksonville, New Orleans and the New York Jets in 2025, but not Pete Carroll and Mike Vrabel.
First time head coaches on the road in week one: 29-45 SU & 42-30-2 ATS since 1990 with road dogs coming in at 37-20-2 ATS.
First time head coaches at home in week one: 34-45-1 SU & 38-40-2 ATS s/'90.
Home favs: 20-16 SU & 15-19-2 ATS
Home dogs: 14-29-1 SU & 23-21 ATS.
Self-reliance is more important than artificial intelligence.
These numbers are regarding first time NFL head coaches, which includes Dallas, Jacksonville, New Orleans and the New York Jets in 2025, but not Pete Carroll and Mike Vrabel.
First time head coaches on the road in week one: 29-45 SU & 42-30-2 ATS since 1990 with road dogs coming in at 37-20-2 ATS.
First time head coaches at home in week one: 34-45-1 SU & 38-40-2 ATS s/'90.
These numbers are regarding first time NFL head coaches, which includes Dallas, Jacksonville, New Orleans and the New York Jets in 2025, but not Pete Carroll and Mike Vrabel. First time head coaches on the road in week one: 29-45 SU & 42-30-2 ATS since 1990 with road dogs coming in at 37-20-2 ATS. First time head coaches at home in week one: 34-45-1 SU & 38-40-2 ATS s/'90. Home favs: 20-16 SU & 15-19-2 ATS Home dogs: 14-29-1 SU & 23-21 ATS.
Add the Bears to that 2025 first time had coach list as well.
Self-reliance is more important than artificial intelligence.
These numbers are regarding first time NFL head coaches, which includes Dallas, Jacksonville, New Orleans and the New York Jets in 2025, but not Pete Carroll and Mike Vrabel. First time head coaches on the road in week one: 29-45 SU & 42-30-2 ATS since 1990 with road dogs coming in at 37-20-2 ATS. First time head coaches at home in week one: 34-45-1 SU & 38-40-2 ATS s/'90. Home favs: 20-16 SU & 15-19-2 ATS Home dogs: 14-29-1 SU & 23-21 ATS.
Add the Bears to that 2025 first time had coach list as well.
These numbers are regarding first time NFL head coaches, which includes Dallas, Jacksonville, New Orleans and the New York Jets in 2025, but not Pete Carroll and Mike Vrabel. First time head coaches on the road in week one: 29-45 SU & 42-30-2 ATS since 1990 with road dogs coming in at 37-20-2 ATS. First time head coaches at home in week one: 34-45-1 SU & 38-40-2 ATS s/'90. Home favs: 20-16 SU & 15-19-2 ATS Home dogs: 14-29-1 SU & 23-21 ATS.
These numbers are regarding first time NFL head coaches, which includes Dallas, Jacksonville, New Orleans and the New York Jets in 2025, but not Pete Carroll and Mike Vrabel. First time head coaches on the road in week one: 29-45 SU & 42-30-2 ATS since 1990 with road dogs coming in at 37-20-2 ATS. First time head coaches at home in week one: 34-45-1 SU & 38-40-2 ATS s/'90. Home favs: 20-16 SU & 15-19-2 ATS Home dogs: 14-29-1 SU & 23-21 ATS.
Quote Originally Posted by C-70Blues: These numbers are regarding first time NFL head coaches, which includes Dallas, Jacksonville, New Orleans and the New York Jets in 2025, but not Pete Carroll and Mike Vrabel. First time head coaches on the road in week one: 29-45 SU & 42-30-2 ATS since 1990 with road dogs coming in at 37-20-2 ATS. First time head coaches at home in week one: 34-45-1 SU & 38-40-2 ATS s/'90. Home favs: 20-16 SU & 15-19-2 ATS Home dogs: 14-29-1 SU & 23-21 ATS. That was good of you to do....
I like to be prepared.
Self-reliance is more important than artificial intelligence.
Quote Originally Posted by C-70Blues: These numbers are regarding first time NFL head coaches, which includes Dallas, Jacksonville, New Orleans and the New York Jets in 2025, but not Pete Carroll and Mike Vrabel. First time head coaches on the road in week one: 29-45 SU & 42-30-2 ATS since 1990 with road dogs coming in at 37-20-2 ATS. First time head coaches at home in week one: 34-45-1 SU & 38-40-2 ATS s/'90. Home favs: 20-16 SU & 15-19-2 ATS Home dogs: 14-29-1 SU & 23-21 ATS. That was good of you to do....
No, I didn't have anything on rookie quarterbacks....Makinen of vsin has done research into rookie qbs and has written articles about them and how they perform.
Zac Taylor of the Bengals has been 1-11 ATS in his first two games, so perhaps that adds on.
h) Week one teams that outrush attempt their opponent have gone 405-117-13 ATS (+8.1), 78.2%....would say that the Raiders, Seahawks and the Browns will at least attempt to establish a running game, though of course the 49ers are excellent at running the ball as well.
Have bet all games listed except for the Bears....will wait on possible line moves in that game....I would bet the Bears only if they stay a dog,.....I think Caleb Williams is a turnover waiting to happen, and their backup is is savvy and tough, the better quarterback. As with all highly drafted qbs (Zach Wilson, etc.), it'll take the organization a couple of years to finally become resigned to the fact that they are playing the wrong guy.
No, I didn't have anything on rookie quarterbacks....Makinen of vsin has done research into rookie qbs and has written articles about them and how they perform.
Zac Taylor of the Bengals has been 1-11 ATS in his first two games, so perhaps that adds on.
h) Week one teams that outrush attempt their opponent have gone 405-117-13 ATS (+8.1), 78.2%....would say that the Raiders, Seahawks and the Browns will at least attempt to establish a running game, though of course the 49ers are excellent at running the ball as well.
Have bet all games listed except for the Bears....will wait on possible line moves in that game....I would bet the Bears only if they stay a dog,.....I think Caleb Williams is a turnover waiting to happen, and their backup is is savvy and tough, the better quarterback. As with all highly drafted qbs (Zach Wilson, etc.), it'll take the organization a couple of years to finally become resigned to the fact that they are playing the wrong guy.
No, I didn't have anything on rookie quarterbacks....Makinen of vsin has done research into rookie qbs and has written articles about them and how they perform. Zac Taylor of the Bengals has been 1-11 ATS in his first two games, so perhaps that adds on. h) Week one teams that outrush attempt their opponent have gone 405-117-13 ATS (+8.1), 78.2%....would say that the Raiders, Seahawks and the Browns will at least attempt to establish a running game, though of course the 49ers are excellent at running the ball as well. Have bet all games listed except for the Bears....will wait on possible line moves in that game....I would bet the Bears only if they stay a dog,.....I think Caleb Williams is a turnover waiting to happen, and their backup is is savvy and tough, the better quarterback. As with all highly drafted qbs (Zach Wilson, etc.), it'll take the organization a couple of years to finally become resigned to the fact that they are playing the wrong guy.
Nice to read your early season. Your (h) angle is very strong imo and I like it's implications.
No, I didn't have anything on rookie quarterbacks....Makinen of vsin has done research into rookie qbs and has written articles about them and how they perform. Zac Taylor of the Bengals has been 1-11 ATS in his first two games, so perhaps that adds on. h) Week one teams that outrush attempt their opponent have gone 405-117-13 ATS (+8.1), 78.2%....would say that the Raiders, Seahawks and the Browns will at least attempt to establish a running game, though of course the 49ers are excellent at running the ball as well. Have bet all games listed except for the Bears....will wait on possible line moves in that game....I would bet the Bears only if they stay a dog,.....I think Caleb Williams is a turnover waiting to happen, and their backup is is savvy and tough, the better quarterback. As with all highly drafted qbs (Zach Wilson, etc.), it'll take the organization a couple of years to finally become resigned to the fact that they are playing the wrong guy.
Nice to read your early season. Your (h) angle is very strong imo and I like it's implications.
I like most of your picks but I do question 2 of them:
The Browns seem like a hot mess. Despite Cincinnatti's horrible defense, I think they simply outscore Flacco, who has limitations on the offensive side of the ball. They lack talent on offense. I think Cincinatti covers by a TD. This sets up perfectly to bet against Cincy the following week when they are a decent sized home favorite against Jacksonville, who at least has the ability to stay close with some of the talent on offense that they have.
I also question Seattle. Darnold is now under a coaching tree that is not Minnesota. The team is devoid of talent especially that Metcalf left to Pittsburgh. Not sure if Seattle has a new coach as well. Something to factor in. San Francisco has a veteran coach with a top 15 team that has a short road line. I think they cover by a field goal or more in this spot.
I would bet against San Franciso the following week when they are a big road favorite against New Orleans playing the 2nd of back to back home games while San Francisco will be in a divisional sandwich spot between Seattle in week 1 and Arizona in week 3. They will be caught looking ahead in week 2 which translates to taking New Orleans with the heavy home underdog line.
I like most of your picks but I do question 2 of them:
The Browns seem like a hot mess. Despite Cincinnatti's horrible defense, I think they simply outscore Flacco, who has limitations on the offensive side of the ball. They lack talent on offense. I think Cincinatti covers by a TD. This sets up perfectly to bet against Cincy the following week when they are a decent sized home favorite against Jacksonville, who at least has the ability to stay close with some of the talent on offense that they have.
I also question Seattle. Darnold is now under a coaching tree that is not Minnesota. The team is devoid of talent especially that Metcalf left to Pittsburgh. Not sure if Seattle has a new coach as well. Something to factor in. San Francisco has a veteran coach with a top 15 team that has a short road line. I think they cover by a field goal or more in this spot.
I would bet against San Franciso the following week when they are a big road favorite against New Orleans playing the 2nd of back to back home games while San Francisco will be in a divisional sandwich spot between Seattle in week 1 and Arizona in week 3. They will be caught looking ahead in week 2 which translates to taking New Orleans with the heavy home underdog line.
Betfair did a survey of their betting population a few years ago...at the time they had 80,000. 3,000 of them were winners, which equates to 3.75% of them being profitable.
That means that 1 out of 25 people that walk into a sportsbook is a likely winner.
Betfair did a survey of their betting population a few years ago...at the time they had 80,000. 3,000 of them were winners, which equates to 3.75% of them being profitable.
That means that 1 out of 25 people that walk into a sportsbook is a likely winner.
I like most of your picks but I do question 2 of them: The Browns seem like a hot mess. Despite Cincinnatti's horrible defense, I think they simply outscore Flacco, who has limitations on the offensive side of the ball. They lack talent on offense. I think Cincinatti covers by a TD. This sets up perfectly to bet against Cincy the following week when they are a decent sized home favorite against Jacksonville, who at least has the ability to stay close with some of the talent on offense that they have. I also question Seattle. Darnold is now under a coaching tree that is not Minnesota. The team is devoid of talent especially that Metcalf left to Pittsburgh. Not sure if Seattle has a new coach as well. Something to factor in. San Francisco has a veteran coach with a top 15 team that has a short road line. I think they cover by a field goal or more in this spot. I would bet against San Franciso the following week when they are a big road favorite against New Orleans playing the 2nd of back to back home games while San Francisco will be in a divisional sandwich spot between Seattle in week 1 and Arizona in week 3. They will be caught looking ahead in week 2 which translates to taking New Orleans with the heavy home underdog line. All others look good. Just my feedback. Thanks.
Divergent opinion is what makes a market.
Vsin has 35% of bettors on Seattle and 25% of them on Cleveland.....on covers in their contest it is 37% and 33% respectively.
I just made pretty good money in baseball doing nothing but taking teams this season in a certain betting range that had 35% or less of the public betting that team.
That means taking teams nobody likes, including me, often times.
I like most of your picks but I do question 2 of them: The Browns seem like a hot mess. Despite Cincinnatti's horrible defense, I think they simply outscore Flacco, who has limitations on the offensive side of the ball. They lack talent on offense. I think Cincinatti covers by a TD. This sets up perfectly to bet against Cincy the following week when they are a decent sized home favorite against Jacksonville, who at least has the ability to stay close with some of the talent on offense that they have. I also question Seattle. Darnold is now under a coaching tree that is not Minnesota. The team is devoid of talent especially that Metcalf left to Pittsburgh. Not sure if Seattle has a new coach as well. Something to factor in. San Francisco has a veteran coach with a top 15 team that has a short road line. I think they cover by a field goal or more in this spot. I would bet against San Franciso the following week when they are a big road favorite against New Orleans playing the 2nd of back to back home games while San Francisco will be in a divisional sandwich spot between Seattle in week 1 and Arizona in week 3. They will be caught looking ahead in week 2 which translates to taking New Orleans with the heavy home underdog line. All others look good. Just my feedback. Thanks.
Divergent opinion is what makes a market.
Vsin has 35% of bettors on Seattle and 25% of them on Cleveland.....on covers in their contest it is 37% and 33% respectively.
I just made pretty good money in baseball doing nothing but taking teams this season in a certain betting range that had 35% or less of the public betting that team.
That means taking teams nobody likes, including me, often times.
While I don’t blindly bet, I too am a contrarian bettor, splits are quite useful and recency bias is a real thing.When you walk into a sports bar I’m the quiet guy in the corner almost always rooting against the house.
While I don’t blindly bet, I too am a contrarian bettor, splits are quite useful and recency bias is a real thing.When you walk into a sports bar I’m the quiet guy in the corner almost always rooting against the house.
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