NFL 2025 Picks

2 locked in

Cook o77.5 rush yards @1.85  0.5 to win 0.425

Over this in 2 of 3

Expect Bills  to lead and pound the run

Main worry is he sits in a blowout

Like him to get 70+ so I'll take chance on 78+

Puka o89.5 rec yards @1.85  0.5 to win 0.425

Over this in 3 of 3

Staffords main target

Rams should have to throw it a lot in this game, especially if colts get lead

Receptions like set at 7.5 so they expect ton of targets again this week

Like him to get 80+ so I'll take chance on 90+

GL all

Good chance.  My guess is he'll rip one for 30+ yards then just needs 48 more over the entire game to score this prop a winner. 

Cook

Puka

Overall 5-6  -2.45 units

1-4   -3.15   1-unit plays

4-2   +0.7    0.5-unit plays 

1 locked in

Puka o97.5 rec yards @1.85  1 to win 0.85

Over this in 3 of 4

Leads league in targets, averages over 12 targets a game

Stafford main target, expect him to find him lots on a short week

49ers haven't faced a decent passing offense yet

Receptions line set at 7.5 and juiced heavy, books expect lots of targets again

Like him to get 85+ so I'll take a chance on 98+

GL all

@dubz4dummyz  -  GL  

2 locked in

Taylor o90.5 rush yards @1.85  1 to win 0.85

Over this in 2 of 4

Expect 18+ carries 

Lv rush D nothing special

Like him to get 80+ so I'll take chance on 90+

Gibbs o76.5 rush yards @1.85  1 to win 0.85

Over this in 2 of 4 

Lions should lead and pound run

Main worry is montgomery stealing carries

Like him to get 70+ so I'll try 77+

GL all

@zircon

 @Cyrax

 @Fuse

Cheers fellas see of we can get back on track

1 locked in

G.wilson o63.5 rec yards @1.85  1 to win 0.85

Over this in 3 of 4

Avg just over 9 targets per game

Cowboys allowing most pass yards per game

Main worry is if jets go run heavy with breece/fields

Like him to get 50+ so I'll take chance on 64+

GL all

Leans for week 5. Doubt I'll play anymore than the 4 above 

Jefferson o71.5 rec yards @1.85...cle def decent but they had a long flight to Europe where minne has been over there for 2 weeks

Tet o61.5 rec yards @1.80..hard to trust bryce

Henry u84.5 rush yards @1.95..hou should be all in to stop the run..looks like this might get bet higher as public expects Balt to pound run with lamar out

Saquon u79.5 rush yards @1.90...den D elite and eagles OL no where near 100% plus playing way worse that last season

1-3  -2.15

Puka receptions was the play

Blowout in indy game costs me, taylor sits 4th Q

Bet Gibbs before I heard it was montgomerys homecoming game, bad bet

Got lucky on g.wilson ..garbage time win

Of course the leans went 4-0...cant make that shit up

Oh and Grupe misses 2 field goals and costs me a $50 amazon gift card in the cover contest

Overall 6-9  -4.6 units

2-7   -5.3   1-unit plays

4-2   +0.7    0.5-unit plays

See if I can dig outta the hole...slow n steady lol 

1 locked in

Puka o7.5 receptions @2.05  1 to win 1.05

Pretty sure it's a typo by my book, I'd play 8.5 for a half unit but since its 7.5 I'll go full unit...would go higher if weather was clear..calling for wind/rain

Over this in all 5 games

Leads league in targets

Only worry is weather...if weather crazy bad I may hedge out of this bet...will post before game if I hedge out

The weather might actually help puka and hurt davante adams as stafford will just dump off short passes to puka all day

Like him in the 7-10 reception range

GL all

2 locked in

JSN o83.5 rec.yards @1.85  1 to win  0.85

Over this in 4 of 5

Darnold turning into a  bit of a gunslinger

Expecting jax to put up some points  at home which should  make Seattle pass

Jax run D also pretty good which should lean seattle towards pass game

Receptions line set at 6.5 so books expect targets 

Like him to get 70+ so I'll take chance on 84+

Egbuka o75.5 rec.yards @1.80  1 to win 0.8

Over this in 3 of 5, but 3 straight 

Godwin, Evans ..baker has to throw to some one

Bucky also out which hurts bucs run game 

49ers should put up points which should lead to bucs passing 

49ers secondary mediocre at best

Baker been slinging it this season

Like him to get 70+ so I'll take chance on 76+

GL all

Other leans

Ten/lv o41.5...both teams should get to 20 here

Tet o68.5 rec.yards @1.85...hard to trust bryce but dal secondary beat up

Odunze o63.5 rec yards @1.85...hard to trust caleb

Taylor o84.5 rush yards @1.85...due for big game..might sit in blowout if kyler doesnt play for ari

Jeanty o75.5 rush yards @1.85...wanted lower number here

2 other leans. May add one or both 

Jacobs o80.5 rush yards @1.85

Cook o72.5 rush yards @1.85

1-2 -1.15

Cant win when 2 of ur 3 players leave in the 1st half with injury....insane luck so far this season 

Puka injured ankle...egbuka injured hammy...JSN good read

So far had mcbride lose by 1 yard after I slacked on his line week 1 and it went up from 60.5 to 62.5...had tyreek drop 2 easy balls to stay under....had car somehow blowout atl to hold bijan under...had 3 players leave with injury in 1st half....had 2 bad reads with Gibbs and cam ward bets...and had 1 lucky win with g.wilson going over in garbage time

See if this luck can flip

Overall 7-11 -5.75 units

3-9   -6.45   1-unit plays

4-2   +0.7    0.5-unit plays

Would be down 4.55 units if I stuck to my plan of 1-unit bets after week 1....

Got 1 play circled for next week so far

1 locked in

Chase o71.5 rec yards @1.80  1 to win 0.8

Over this in 1st flacco start last week. 10 receptions on 12 targets

Chase has decent career numbers vs pit

Cin run game is trash and pit run D decent. Flacco should need to chuck it all game. Flacco pass attempts set at 37. He also has pretty good career numbers vs steelers

Pit allow 6th most pass yards per game 

Chase reception odds 6.5 and juiced heavy. If he gets 5-6 receptions he should push 60+ yards

Like that cincy at home. Chase has 110 and 165 in 2 home games.

Like him to get 60+ so I'll take chance on 72+

GL all

Chase  

Overall 8-11 -4.95 units

4-9   -5.65   1-unit plays

4-2   +0.7    0.5-unit plays

Looking at 2 other plays for sunday

Leans overall 29-29...2-1 ats..3-3 total..7-9 rush...17-16 rec

Would still be down if I bet all my leans..for tracking purposes 

 Would be down 3.25 if I stuck to 1 unit plays after week 1... did wrong math should have been 4.05 not 4.55 in post 41...just for tracking purposes

1 locked in

Jefferson o81.5 rec yards @1.80  1 to win 0.8

Over this in 2 of 3 wentz starts

Eagles have 0 pass rushers, wentz should have time

Revenge game for Wentz, he should be passing

Revenge game for Jefferson, eagles passed on him in the draft

This was gonna be a huge play if Quinyon  Mitchell didnt play, like 2 or 3 units. Q playing but hes not 100%

Vikes might move him to slot on some plays to get him away from Q

May also add addison for half unit, he has easy matchup vs eagles CB2

Like him to get 70+ so I'll take chance on 82+

GL all

Other leans

Ne -7.0 @1.92

Ne/ten u42.5 @1.92

Car -1.5 @1.92

Phi/min o43.5 @1.92

Atl +2.0 @1.92

Hou/sea o41.0 @1.94

Judkins o94.5 rush yards @1.85

Maye o232.5 pass yards @1.85