Week 1 Leans
tb -2.0 @1.92...dont trust atl
lv/ne u43.5 @1.92...2 decent D, worried about chip kelly pace
pit/nyj u38.5 @1.92...should be a slugfest
irving o69.5 rush yards @1.80...good matchup vs atl D
conner o66.5 rush yards @1.90...potential ari blowout...slight worry he splits more carries with benson, gotta see how ari shares the carries
ward o13.5 rush yards @1.80...den secondary should force him to scramble
conner o15.5 rush att @1.85...potential ari blowout
mcconkey o5.5 rec @1.75...herbert safety blanket...worried with keenan allen back though
bowers o5.5 rec @1.60...wonder about chemistry with new QB and if Gonzo covers him
nabers o6.5 rec @2.00...wonder about chemistry with new QB...apparently not 100% healthy
mcbride o6.5 rec @2.10...kylers safety blanket
puka o6.5 rec @2.15... tough matchup, stingley 2nd best corner in the league...stafford not 100%
bowers o63.5 rec yards @1.80...new QB chemistry and does gonzo cover him
nabers o72.5 rec yards @1.85...new QB chemistry
mcbride o62.5 rec yards @1.90...should be good for 5/50 at minimum in this spot...blowout might fuck it if they pull him for backups
hill o69.5 rec yards @1.80...could get this on 2-3 receptions but he might not be same player he once was..apparently not 100% healthy
puka o71.5 rec yards @1.85...tough matchup vs stingley and stafford apparently not 100%...hes staffords main target tho
gibbs o20.5 rec yards @1.85...had 11 and 30 vs GB last year, potential for some check downs early in season as offenses normally sluggish
2 locked in
Mcbride o62.5 rec yards @1.90 0.5 to win 0.45
over this in 5 of 8 road games last year
kylers safety blanket, should find him week 1
slight worry its a blowout and he gets rest late, or ari goes run heavy
expecting 6-7+ targets here
expect him to be good for 5/50 at minimum so ill take chance on 63+
Ward o13.5 rush yards @1.80 0.5 to win 0.4
only went over this in 5 of 13 college games last year
had 3+ runs in 11 of 13 college games last year
expect denver to have him scrambling for his life on some plays, denver defense could be elite this year
could get this number on 1-2 scrambles/broken plays
expect him to get 10+ rush yards so ill take chance on 14+
GL all
1 play locked in above post #6
Leans went 7-11 week 1....ats 1-0...total 1-1...rush 0-4...rec 5-6
More Week 2 leans
Jax +3.5 @1.94...Cinci known for slow starts
Sea +3.5 @1.86...rodgers had huge revenge game last week
Ne/Mia o43.5 @1.96...both teama should get to 20 here
Chase o88.5 rec.yards @1.85...should be a shootout
McBride o62.5 rec yards @1.90...panthers D mediocre at best...kyles safety blanket
Debating adding before kickoff
I like the CHASE over yds! 
1 locked in
Chase o88.5 rec.yards @1.85 0.5 to win 0.425
Jags secondary nothing special
Had a quiet week last week on 5 targets...potential for 10+ targets this week
If Bengals get down early burrow will be chucking it
Like that Cinci at home here, will be quiet at the LOS for burrow
Main worry is if jags DL dominates cinci OL or if cinci blows them out and go run heavy
Was hoping for 79-82 line here but I'll take chance on 89+
GL all
Week 2 leans went 5-1...ats 1-1...total 1-0...rec 3-0
Leans overall 12-12...2-1 ats..2-1 total..0-4 rush...8-6 rec
Overall 2-2 -0.15 units
Should be 3-1 if I bet mcbride a day earlier in week 1...gotta be quick on prop lines they typically only go up from their opening number...the grind goes on
Got 3 spots circled for next week so far. See what we get for lines
1 locked in
Tyreek o65.5 rec.yards @1.85 1 to win 0.85
Over this in 2 of last 3 vs Bills
Over this in 2 of last 3 @buf
Waddle not 100% so chance he sees more targets
Tua should have to air it out all game to keep it close
Should be good for 5/50 at minimum so I'll take chance on 66+
Always a chance he gets this on 2-3 receptions
GL all
1 locked in
Bijan o81.5 rush yards @1.85 1 to win 0.85
Flew over this in both games vs car last season
Has averaged 5.0+ YPC in 3 of 4 career games vs car
Car run D mediocre at best
Expect atl to pound the run on the road. Especially if they get a lead
Main worry is if allgeier steals carries
Looking for 40+ yards a half, chance he breaks a big one
Like him to get 70+ so I'll take chance on 82+
GL all
2 locked in
JSN o70.5 rec yards @1.85 1 to win 0.85
3rd in league with 23 targets in 2 games...darnold seems to like him
Darnold turning into a bit of a gunslinger
Saints secondary nothing special
Slightly worried about blowout and weather
Should be good for 5/60 at minimum so I'll take chance in 71+
Nabers o75.5 rec yards @1.85 1 to win 0.85
Leads league with 25 targets in 2 games
Giants have no run game, they will need to pass to keep up with KC
Slight worry russ gets pulled for dart...not sure nabers/dart chemistry there yet..
Should be good for 6/60 at minimum so I'll take chance on 76+
GL all
More week 3 leans
Cin/min o42.5...both backups can sling it
Atl/car o43.5...can see both teams getting to 20 here
Taylor o91.5 rush yards @1.85...missed this at 89.5...decent matchup for him
Saquon o88.5 rush yards @1.85...crazy numbers vs rams last year...assume rams stack the box to stop him
Jefferson o5.5 receptions @1.80...any chemistry with Wentz?
Jefferson o71.5 rec yards @1.85...see above
Chase o72.5 rec yards @1.85....prefer if he was at home...browning seems to target him...but the numbers in 2023 weren't as good with browning in
Lamb o81.5 rec yards @1.85...potential shootout...worried about weather though
Odunze o61.5 rec yards @1.85...see above
Debated Bowers and warren but neither 100%. Both have nagging lower body injuries
1 locked in
Lamb o81.5 rec yards @1.85 1 to win 0.85
Over this in both games to start season
Dak has looked really good so far and lamb his clear #1
Lamb 2nd in league with 24 targets
Dal doesnt have a run game so dak should be passing
Potential for a shootout with 2 bad defenses
Chi secondary riddled with injuries
Weather not looking as bad as they initially called for
Should be good for 6/60 at minimum so I'll take a chance he has a longer reception or 2
GL all
Looks like a probable winner to me 
1-4 -3.15
Tyreek was decent read. He had 2 horrible drops...but Tua doesnt look the same pre-concussions so prob avoid all miami props
Didnt have carolina whopping Atlanta on my bingo card...and he still ran for 73
Good read on JSN but almost got burned by blowout
Lamb injured 1st drive...great lol
Didnt see KC game but Nabers had 25 targets coming in...not sure what happened there but bad read I guess...see if Dart/Winston gets to play
Overall 3-6 -3.3 units
Leans went 5-8...1-1 totals...1-2 rush...3-5 rec
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