Has anyone noticed that the Patriots down the stretch have vastly improved their defensive play? 3rd in epa per play, 4th in dropback epa, and 7th in rush epa in their last 4 games? In terms of road defense, the Pats have allowed 19.5 ppg this year, 4th best in the league. Only the Broncos, Texans and Seahawks have allowed less otr. It's gonna be a tough task for a QB who hasn't played in forever. If Sean Payton deploys the run early and often(as he should), the Pats in their last 3 games have allowed 2.9 yards per rush in their last 3 games. Nose tackle Khyris Tonga and LB Robert Spillane are healthy and playing again. They make a difference. To make matters worse, the Pats have allowed 4.9 yards per pass, and a 22.1% redzone scoring percentage over this span. For the strength of schedule argument, one that's followed the Pats all year long, last week's matchup vs the Texans was the #32 sos vs the #1 sos. The Broncos sos is #25. The spread is probably 1.5 to 2 points to high in this game. So I get it, there's value on the Broncos here. I just couldn't back them unless I truly believed that they could win the game outright, and I have a hard time seeing it right now. Especially when the biggest question mark in the game rests upon the QB position. Someone could probably talk me into the under. Vrabel vs Payton in this kind of game screams low scoring.
Last 4 games...
Texans - was more about defenses looking better than reality because of the weather challenges facing both offenses. Chargers - nothing to play for Dolphins - nothing to play for Jets - nothing to play
Only reasonable to think their numbers would increase during a stretch like this, nothing impressive about it at all.
It's actually quite disturbing that their season numbers aren't better considering the played the easiest schedule.
Has anyone noticed that the Patriots down the stretch have vastly improved their defensive play? 3rd in epa per play, 4th in dropback epa, and 7th in rush epa in their last 4 games? In terms of road defense, the Pats have allowed 19.5 ppg this year, 4th best in the league. Only the Broncos, Texans and Seahawks have allowed less otr. It's gonna be a tough task for a QB who hasn't played in forever. If Sean Payton deploys the run early and often(as he should), the Pats in their last 3 games have allowed 2.9 yards per rush in their last 3 games. Nose tackle Khyris Tonga and LB Robert Spillane are healthy and playing again. They make a difference. To make matters worse, the Pats have allowed 4.9 yards per pass, and a 22.1% redzone scoring percentage over this span. For the strength of schedule argument, one that's followed the Pats all year long, last week's matchup vs the Texans was the #32 sos vs the #1 sos. The Broncos sos is #25. The spread is probably 1.5 to 2 points to high in this game. So I get it, there's value on the Broncos here. I just couldn't back them unless I truly believed that they could win the game outright, and I have a hard time seeing it right now. Especially when the biggest question mark in the game rests upon the QB position. Someone could probably talk me into the under. Vrabel vs Payton in this kind of game screams low scoring.
Last 4 games...
Texans - was more about defenses looking better than reality because of the weather challenges facing both offenses. Chargers - nothing to play for Dolphins - nothing to play for Jets - nothing to play
Only reasonable to think their numbers would increase during a stretch like this, nothing impressive about it at all.
It's actually quite disturbing that their season numbers aren't better considering the played the easiest schedule.
@SportsIntuition At what point are people going to throw the "pats played an easy schedule" argument in the trash? I mean at some point they won't cover, or even lose, and it may be this weekend. Who knows. But when and if that happens, is that when one says "haha, gotcha, the Patriots suck they played an easy schedule I knew it!" The Patriots are 13-5-1 ats this year. Fading them is bound to work at some point I reckon.
Sometimes you have to close your eyes and hold your breath and get under the sack ladies.
@SportsIntuition At what point are people going to throw the "pats played an easy schedule" argument in the trash? I mean at some point they won't cover, or even lose, and it may be this weekend. Who knows. But when and if that happens, is that when one says "haha, gotcha, the Patriots suck they played an easy schedule I knew it!" The Patriots are 13-5-1 ats this year. Fading them is bound to work at some point I reckon.
Sometimes you have to close your eyes and hold your breath and get under the sack ladies.
And it's hard to ignore the "easy schedule" when they only played 2 teams (Bills twice) with winning schedules during the regular season and went 1-2 which included losing at home to the Steelers. This means that during the regular season they only won ONE GAME against a team with a winning record!
And it's hard to ignore the "easy schedule" when they only played 2 teams (Bills twice) with winning schedules during the regular season and went 1-2 which included losing at home to the Steelers. This means that during the regular season they only won ONE GAME against a team with a winning record!
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