Circa Survivor - Week 4

96.38% chance, I will be on Detroit this week.  Maybe a bit of a letdown spot, but what happened to GB should be sufficiently sobering and I do not see Flacco keeping up.  I also did not see Carolina blanking Atlanta 30-0, but that is for another day.  A valid reservation is both the extra Thanksgiving / Christmas weeks that see many of the same teams, but if we get that far it'd be a happy problem.

Other options:

Seahawks - maybe

Commanders - B level team on my rankings and would like to see a bit more.  That being said, Atlanta does seem to struggle scoring.

Chargers - Solid option.  Valid concern west coast going east for the early game (Rams).

Eagles - I like it, but probably Thanksgiving (Friday) pick

Packers - Sure they looked terrible, but Dallas doesn't have the defense Cleveland appears to have.

Always love a good dialog with others holding entries that are willing to share.  Knowing I have to go 20 - 0 to have a shot puts me in a more communal mindset that viewing others as competitors.  Love to see any / all of us win / chop this.  

Cleveland plays exceptional defense at home, terrible on the road giving up 35 + last 7-8 on the road. Many will think they will give Detroit a run after the upset..count on another Detroit blowout. Its more of a letdown for Clev.. Flacco wont know what hit him.  I noticed in CBB during the tournament. Teams off a major upset..fall short in the next game. After Det's loss to GB..they are rolling now and Clev is just in the way

I saw this on you tube last year.

Dogs +6 or higher off a SU win then +6 or higher the next week are terrible.

That rarely do it again. I have the exact record somewhere but will have to go look for it.

If you want to take some risk back the Texans. Doubt  there will be a spot to back them again.

I think I'd pass though, but if you have a number of teams I do it just to save the better teams.

I believe that you’re spot on wizer. Detroit plays their best ball at home and I’m not sure there’s a defense in the league that can hold them under 30 at home. Not to mention, the way that they got after Lamar. Imagine Flacco the statue under that type of pressure. I’ll eat the chalk and take Detroit and the over. 37-17 Detroit?…

Texans is a great get out of the way pick!  

@brn2loslive2win

 I have a 20+ pt win as well. Plus, Det has Hutchinson back..guy wreaks havoc all over the field. 

I would go with Detroit, agree with what everyone else has said. All those other games I can see them finding a way to lose. I cant even conceive how Detroit could lose this game. And I actually had Cleveland last week and convinced a friend of mine to change his GB survivor pick. 

My next pick would be Philly. I think they are smashing Tampa by double digits this week and am betting it. 

@unplucked_gem

 Any concerns about the Lions being BOTH a Christmas and Thanksgiving team?

I already used up Lions, forgot about those thanksgiving and Christmas games may be slim pickings for me since I also used Packers lol.  if I were to pick this week for me it's either Chargers or Texans..

@vanzack

Lol.  My concerns fall somewhere between never wanting to be in opposition of Detroit and having to rely on KC / Dallas.

It's going to be Hella interesting if a lot of folks make it to those weeks.  Whether still in or out, I'll be monitoring those results closely.

Holding strong #93 in the Millions. 

Taking a long look at Patriots here. Looked better vs Steelers, now playing 3rd home game of the season lining for their first win.  I will have 2 Pats and 2 Texans at least. Gl guys

Should read looking for their first win.  

@______P______

I paused at that game, i think its a good spot with multiple entries.  Im small time scared money.

@NEWPORT

 2nd this.  Texans should win by two possessions.

@NEWPORT

 I am in Houston and have the Texans in my week 4 survivor league.  I’ll be holding my breath the whole time, but if ever there is a week to take Houston, this is it.  

As it turns out, I went with the 3.62% and did not play Detroit.

I don't want to talk about it, but had to have my time sensitive pick into the proxy by 2 pm today.

@unplucked_gem

 For week 4 DET;HOU;LAC;BUF

valid concerns with LAC, I have 5 rules with survivors … never break more than one, with LAC I’d be breaking two.

AA23 rules for any NFL survivor:

no rookie QB’s

no road teams

no division games

no west to east travel teams

no MNF

@AA23

I love the MNF rule.  I just plotted the rest of the season out and some of those are going to be tough.

I think we see a few more weeks of success but I can see the bottom falling out of a bunch of entries weeks 8-12.

@unplucked_gem

 Yes, no doubt, at some point we’re all left with no choice, especially with single entry - we need to pick our spots.

Well we survived with Seattle.  That was definitely a sweat but we're safely in the club house with Detroit preserved.

BOL my brothers.

Also get to start week 4 1-0.....hope to get 4 more.

congrats on the W. GL going forward 

@Wizerguy

 love the input on this Cleveland game,  it's very informative,  Wizerguy,  thanks again..

Wow.  I didn't see the Bills in the #1 spot.  I was one of 49 on the Seahawks.  49 of 13,000 is the most ballsy play of my circa career.

Bol to all gents.

nice hit @unplucked