Prudent at this time of year. IMO it is not the time for ANYONE to go "large"
Current rain delay...
My capping indicates a LEAN (not a firm bet yet!....will wait for LIVE opp) to Seattle (Gilbert/Flaherty) as the Mariners - even when accounting for Road stats vs Home stats - appear to have small edges both on the mound (starters + pens) and at the plate... I have about a 1.58 to 1 probability.....Although in sports anything can happen on any given day....one-off performances, slump at plate, unexpected errors, untimely bad strike/ball calls by ump, injuries, poor manager decisions, LUCK/bad beats, etc, etc.....
AND I have no idea how this rain delay will affect any players in their "peak arousal" for performance in the field and/or at the plate...hence, will watch & wait for possible opp on Seattle....
[Quote: Originally Posted by fubah2]Current rain delay...
My capping indicates a LEAN (not a firm bet yet!....will wait for LIVE opp) to Seattle (Gilbert/Flaherty) as the Mariners - even when accounting for Road stats vs Home stats - appear to have small edges both on the mound (starters + pens) and at the plate... I have about a 1.58 to 1 probability.....Although in sports anything can happen on any given day....one-off performances, slump at plate, unexpected errors, untimely bad strike/ball calls by ump, injuries, poor manager decisions, LUCK/bad beats, etc, etc.....
AND I have no idea how this rain delay will affect any players in their "peak arousal" for performance in the field and/or at the plate...hence, will watch & wait for possible opp on Seattle...and that is even if the juice rises up to near -200.....MAYBE!!!
. Oct 07
HOT STREAK WARNING!
RODON, Yankees
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 10-game HOT STREAK, 
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! 
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. It happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
CAVEAT: even if he has a "bad outing" doesn't mean LAD lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But LA bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day..... maybe....Do you wanna take the risk at very high odds?
For the second game, my capping suggests TORONTO has a very slight edge.
Bieber vs Rodon looks dead even, with the exception that RODON is on "hot streak overdue for a bad outing" alert. Which DOES NOT MEAN the Yankees would lose necessarily - it would just make it much more difficult for them facing a VERY GOOD run scoring team....
Close at the plate too.......but Toronto is getting PLUS MONEY!
Well, I have TORONTO with a sliver of an edge tonight...not much, but ever so slightly more than NYY....But the point is even if this was a coin-flipper between two very capable teams, the "value play" is ALWAYS on the team getting significant PLUS MONEY with at or very near 50/50 chance of winning! This holds true regardless the actual outcome on any single instance. Play them all in a similar situation and I come out waaaaay ahead over a long season. That's the probability, even if not predictable for a specific game...
However a good case can easily be made for either team to win tonight. It might well be a true coin-flipper going in....then all that could change in just one inning....just never know.....
My bet tonight: TORONTO +145
Well, I have TORONTO with a sliver of an edge tonight...not much, but ever so slightly more than NYY....But the point is even if this was a coin-flipper between two very capable teams, the "value play" is ALWAYS on the team getting significant PLUS MONEY with at or very near 50/50 chance of winning! This holds true regardless the actual outcome on any single instance. Play them all in a similar situation and I come out waaaaay ahead over a long season. That's the probability, even if not predictable for a specific game...
However a good case can easily be made for either team to win tonight. It might well be a true coin-flipper going in....then all that could change in just one inning....just never know.....
My bet tonight: TORONTO +145
My capping indicates a LEAN (not a firm bet yet!....will wait for LIVE opp) to Seattle (Gilbert/Flaherty) as the Mariners - even when accounting for Road stats vs Home stats - appear to have small edges both on the mound (starters + pens) and at the plate... I have about a 1.58 to 1 probability.....Although in sports anything can happen on any given day....one-off performances, slump at plate, unexpected errors, untimely bad strike/ball calls by ump, injuries, poor manager decisions, LUCK/bad beats, etc, etc.....
AND I have no idea how this rain delay will affect any players in their "peak arousal" for performance in the field and/or at the plate...
Meanwhile, how is my LEAN to Seattle doing? 
(I bet them at high/risky odds when leading but NOT a posted bet)
Meanwhile, how is my LEAN to Seattle doing? (I bet them at high/risky odds when leading but NOT a posted bet)
Made some profit off my [not posted] bets on Seattle!
yes and thanks 
Really believe the M’s get through this series. Tougher without Woo, just a brutal loss. Much like Wheeler was… very very hard to overcome losing a Cy young contender.
Have a great day , and appreciate the advice to make these action plays. Playoffs are tough, early in the series especially. Looking forward to the rest of this awesome week of matchups! 
JJ
And one more time thanks for this one too! Hopped all over the first 5 and Jays F5 TT over… Guerrero jr.! 6 runs in the first 3 innings on your Rodon “streaker” alert… bang 
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