Woods NCAAF ‘25

It felt like the past month has been crawling along as I anticipate this NCAAF Season… Always interesting to me these early weeks where you have months to handicap and then the season hits and you have 4 days to handicap.  I know myself after the decades of gambling and the first 2 weeks I’ll simply play .25-.33 unit plays just to test my research a little.  But I’ve historically done poorly early and even a few seasons way back when …shot my load early chasing and being a reckless young man. Lost my ass many years being stupid early.  Not a huge card this weekend and I’m pretty happy with the early lines I snagged.  So I’m not sure how much this will help, proceed with caution and catch me week 3-4 for some full unit bangers.  Enough said, jeez

1. Fresno St +14 July 7th line and again July 25th   
2. Hawai’i -2 and ML -125 

Looking forward to the Big 12 Banger in Ireland!  I’ll be watching and not wagering, but I’m kinda surprised by the line movements. Public seems to love Iowa St as a live dog…I saw them +4 at one point.  Is this a “wrong team favored” or is the public possibly going to get smacked around by a better more disciplined Cats team?  The clover grows fast on the emerald island and I think the pitch will be cut thinly leaving a rugby type of matchup.  
i lean under in the first half, but not enough for a play 

Have a great season to all…some incredible Handicapping Legends are still here on covers….   A player could do very well tailing some of these guys and with proper money management, you could win this season in the long run.  Don’t let anyway tell you bookie always wins, that’s how they build towers in Vegas, no one can beat the 10% Vig over time.  Simply not true. 

Stay conservative early and good luck everybody 

JJ woods 

I was hoping to keep the weeks separate… but these are two more lines I’ve played: 

Utah -6 & Northwestern +7 

GL lets get it Woods on the Bows an Cats with ya

@Rocky-Mountain

 I like everything you’ve posted so far…. Will be checking your threads Rocky Mountain 

Yo by the way, noticed the Duke…im friends with Darrien Mensah’s family and I’m pulling hard for the kid.  Are you in touch with how things are progressing in good ole Durham?  

Really a crazy story…homie got paid!!! Talked to a Bills NFL scout claiming it was a major mistake..He should have stuck around a program that develops the player…Dukes facilities are not SEC caliber.  But SEC wasn’t offering that chunk of dough.  I think he was highest paid portal transfer? 

GL this year my man 

There def High on him I honestly think Duke is going to win more games than people think. There defensive will keep them in the majority of games plus they have alot of good spots to me. Look for them to upset Illinois week 2 in durham. Yea Mensah got paid like 4mil a year which is crazy but he new he would get a shot there. BTW not a duke football fan all basketball Ima Buffs an Huge Broncos fan when it comes to football. As for that Buffs will be 3-4 win team to much toss up in that program and there gonna miss Sanders and Hunter as well as he other skilled recievers more than think.

GLLLL as well Woods

Buffs 18-1 to make the bracket 

@Rocky-Mountain

zero chance 

I would consider them to finish .500 over RSW potentially.   

I had to listen to Klatt last night say only one team from the Big12 will make it…. Now that I disagree with. 

@JJWoods

 18-1 shot I took it.  I seen enough to re- evaluate my original position.  

over 6.5 +165 

They didn’t finish off last season properly this season will be finished off properly.  

From home dog game 1, to a better winnable bowl game and best case in the bracket.  It’s not like the big 12 teams are that elite. 

I would like to see it…. for you, Prime and Boulder.  Early schedule could have them undefeated with 5 wins..getting two more they would most likely need a road upset along the way.  Sanders does well in those roadies often.  The super X factor with the Buffs is QB and finding an offensive identity.  I hope they roll with the kid sooner than later, but man that line better protecting well…he’s teeny back there carrying a bazooka. 

18 to 1 why not… ceiling is kinda high and basement kinda low… Buffs ML vs GT would make a lot of sense also if you believe they top 6.5 wins (nice snag at +165) and make the playoffs…. Would 7 wins be enough? 

Is this Colorado Team stronger on offense or defense….as an identity? 

jj 

Think about the narrative the browns have to create to get Shedeur more touches this week.  Flacco named the starter because if they name Shedeur the start then He would be sitting out.  Thats my take Sanders in and the line -6 let the chalk this week and expect a week 1 Browns upset. 

Love the Utah play...Good Luck!  

    you have evolved .. now let's have a great season  

wouldn’t even consider placing hard earned money on an NFL Preseason game.     I prefer NCAAF and am just more comfortable with those lines.  GL with the Browns -6 and Buffs to make the playoffs 

cool why’s that? 

Dominance on both lines of scrimmage….by Utah…better defense…better head coaching with almost 20 years of continuity…….insufficient post spring practice sessions between Nico and his WRs to gain timing and cohesion, , at least for game 1…The athleticism of Dampier…No significant home field advantage for UCLA playing in the Rose Bowl…Last 7 games, Utah 6-1 ATS against UCLA…Significant advantage in returning production…Nico’s a qb mercenary…with potential…Does he have the leadership skills in week 1 to will his team to victory or at least a cover.  I think it will take more time…The UCLA hire from Indiana TS will eventually pay dividends, but out of the gate in week 1, I think there may be some growing pains…How’s that?  

How about you?  Why are you backing Utah?

haha

https://youtu.be/DDybg9CNXcM?si=XppfUkkMl2OObeIZ

Adding a pair of Dogs…. 5. Buffalo +18, 6. E.Carolina +12  

Bogart!!  

You guys are so full of yourselves...

 Posted by JJWoods   Fresno St +14        Hawai’i -2 and ML -125       Utah -6        Northwestern +7         Buffalo +18       E.Carolina +12     (hope that is about right)  good luck this football season     

Good Luck 

Hey I appreciate you PG333… thanks brotha or sistah  

Miami, Ohio will be challenged to even score 10 pts…Wiscy -17 

Not the first to bring up this live dog, I agree, even tho I missed the 7 USF +7 (-120)  another one that got away so I’m posting the current juiced TCU -2’ (-135) Chappel Hill Bill — welcome to Texas football speed… Frogs are loaded up on offense imo, good season coming.  Grabbing Buckeyes ML -120 not messing with the pts…I’ve said it over and over just a brutal spot for the Longhorns… in my opinion, off a championship Title coming home against #1 Team in the country those frat boys from Austin. Who should be mad after getting slapped around at the Texas sacred Cotton Bowl last season. Many are in the NFL, many significant coaches have left both sides… two new QB’s with little experience.   Give me Ryan Day at home against anyone accept Michigan. Bucks ML   Cincinnati +7 get that hooker. Speaking of my ECU +12 is now at +14   Bad buy on my part 

GL all good people and make it a great day 

I’m not going to be able to calculate and keep track of units….just know these plays weeks 1-3 are .5 unit or less for me  
However I’ll count everything as a unit play and move towards 1.5 unit gradually. Makes the most sense for now:

Week 0/1:   
1 Fresno state +14 loss     
2 Hawai’i nei -2’ win   
3 Hawai’i ML win    
4 Utah -6    
5 Northwestern +7   
6 Buffalo +18    
7 E Carolina +12   
8 Wisconsin -17    
9 South Florida +7 (-120)             
10 TCU -2’ (-135).   
11 Ohio St ML (-120).  
12 Cincinnati +7 (hold out for that 7) 

Leans I may add: Baylor, Sparty, Terps, Vols   

Scratch that about keeping track……..With buying hooks and ML’s it only makes sense to track it all honorably… so let’s vamanos!! 
JJWoods 

Fwiw…just got off the phone with a good buddy down in Ft Worth… My man says Jacobe Hayes “juice” is tearing it up at Slot WR for the Frogs.  Came out of nowhere really as a true freshman…getting great separation. I expect to see him play a lot at UNC. 

And then there’s  Ryan Hughes OT 6’6” 290 who has a great chance to be playing on Sundays is also turning heads… 

Chappel Hill Bill is in deep kimpshe