I like your Houston angle, it makes a lot of sense. I watched most of that ASU game also and they did not look very good. They had a couple big plays where Tech defenders just got beat on go routes. Besides that they really didnt do much on offense.
NCST sounds good too. I noticed that line immediately getting bet down off the 7.5.
@spottie2935
I've already played ISU, Rice, and UNC. We were in consensus on those.
What do you think about Washington State? I bet them as they've been playing well 3 straight games now and lost the last 2 to better teams in close fashion as a big dog. One thing that worries me is if the long travel catches up to them now that they return home and that now they are lined as a favorite.
@Yanasaur
Toledo is laying a bunch of points in a lot conference games. I would compare them to other big MAC schools from matchups early this season.
WASH St. I’m looking for an opportunity to fade them. A main trigger is exactly what draws you or most others attention. The last 3 covers.
previous ats margins the last 3 games
+13 last game
+30 2 games ago
+20 3 games ago.
these are big over performances according to their lines.
Remember a few games ago away dogs (+6) to Colorado State? They were not playing so well before that game
+6 to North Texas got destroyed 59-10 I don’t know if it was a QB issue or major injury but on paper it seems like a motivational issue. They don’t really have a conference. It’s a dead end now? What kind of bowl are they heading to if they get the 6 wins?
They have their lone division opponent conference matchup on deck.
To be expect a win out of this team it’s difficult for me to grasp.
If I have to bet this game I’m looking at Toledo and a game for a better line opportunity. 3 past great games but only 3 wins on the year. The only big conference matchup on deck. I can’t see them extra excited about this one.
I don’t respect bad favorites and at the moment Virginia Tech qualifies. They had a coaching change and with that a few portal leaps.
VTCH already won their big win 2 games ago vs NC St .
There are 2 reasons why they are favored here, that big win is one reason.
The other reason is Cal last 2 games failed. The game again Duke was a blowout. That blowout looks worse because the line was only +4.
I believe this line should be even and the reason it’s not is the travel and location of the game. The other is how disappointing Cal has been. Friday night failed ATS vs UNC and a big fail at home against a decent Duke team.
It’s a decent spot against A team in disarray.
Cal+
Check Wisky injury report. They finished the game last week on their third string QB and fourth string RB due to injuries.
No doubt injuries are concerning. Its taken into account by the lined low total.
Past total lines from Iowa and Ohio State, and Oregon. Also considering how the teams strategize. Ohio State and Iowa play and pay much more attention to defense and limiting opponents opportunities. Oregon plays much different as evidenced by their previous totals.
Oregon has 4 totals under 50 since 2020. Ohios state has 12 out of 23 games totaled at under 50. Iowa has 0 totals over 50 the last 2 seasons.
I compare these teams and totals because these teams and games are the reason Wisky didn’t score. Also Oregon doesn’t have the stifling defense that Wisconsins previous teams have. Oregon can offensive continuously score points. While that’s not been the case for Iowa and Ohio State. I’ll take my chances on a lot more points from Oregon and a much less of an effort to shut down Wisconsin’s offense. Oregon by themselves can score north of 40.
It’s a line Comparison from previous performances and a matchup comparison vs the present opponent.
I like my chances.
Thx for the comment and best wishes
@spottie2935
Toledo is Horrible as a favorite usually and as a double digit favorite they are bad too, and they also lose outright a lot as a double digit favorite as they did vs BG but why are they just a 1 point dog all the way out west??? when they have not won a road game yet and Wash st has apparently played so well they caught Ole Miss the game before Georgia is one reason sure WSU could win big, but to be favored by 1?? yikes I do not do all the numbers things, I just handicap games , no losing weeks yet in college hitting 60% but its interesting with all those numbers
gl wishing you the very best this year
151
@RUM151
I watch your thread daily. You’re elite. Thank you for stopping in.
As far as Wazu it’s difficult to keep tabs if these independent teams, that’s what I have them categorized at because they are not in a typical conference.
All the best to you.
This is THE battle to see who gets the Group 5 position on the PLAYOFF bracket
I already played Memphis +4 and think a teaser on this is super yummy!! GL
I betcha and you betcha
I like it. Im still salty about losing my Auburn ml bet vs Georgia with that crazy goal line fumble that completely changed the trajectory of the game.
@Yanasaur
Short memory and what I love is that line compared to this and you realize that they should have won that game. That might be beneficial this week. Their still a small dog and comparing Arky to their past opponents are not congruent on skill levels.
If they are still mentally sharp the line is very good.
Over 45.5 Oregon vs Wisc
UCLA +25.5
Syracuse will be played in game if the line increases north of +21.5.
N.Car +11
NCST +6.75
Memphis +5
Rice +10.5
Purdue +3 and +2.5 so I have both a half unit to lower the juice in case the line loses. If the +3 pushes so what. I should have lost a full unit. I don’t like laying -120 on (+3 or -3) this is what’s called +2.75 Asian line.
Missouri same line +2.75
Fresno+2.75
Okla State north of +40 ingame
Mich State +14.5
Houston +8.5
Iowa State -2.75
Boston Col in game line
Auburn +1.5
Cal +4.5
N. ILL -6
App St +14
Colorado +13.5 they are getting healthy and Dampier is questionable. Even if he plays I’m okay.
Georgia South+1.5
Established in 1995,
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