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WEEK 7

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Posted: #26
Initial plays that stand out to me: 

Washington State -13 @Cal
Auburn -7 @LSU
Navy +4 @Memphis
TCU -5 @K-State
Colorado -12 @Oregon State
Houston -13 @Tulsa
New Mexico +3 @Fresno State

Not seeing any home teams worth betting on this week. Thoughts on any of these?
 
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Posted: #27
curious your thoughts on Washington/Arizona St.  I don't see how this line is under 21...
 
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Posted: #28
great work bud.....hit it big this week BOL
 
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Posted: #29

BA, you are the best!

Hit again on another HUGE can't lose ML Par!

If you have any thoughts for this week, I would appreciate it very much.

Teams I am looking at:

USC, Colorado, Houston, Washington, Louisville, Iowa State, Arkansas State.

Do any of the above scream "don't do it" to you?

Or any other team you would toss in the mix?

Thanks for all you do, and hope you are feeling better.

 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

sorry forgot....Miami / GT moved to Sat

223 GEORGIA TECH
3:30 p.m.
224 MIAMI, FL  -7
  * both RB's out maybe....should be up soon

Ertz ?? for K St.....that one might be awhile

also

Cinn  221
USF  222

Unsubstantiated rumor...Ertz surgery and out 4-6.  

 Probably a good thing for KSU as the offense just wasn't working well...though I doubt this staff's ability to game plan a running game for backup Delton (for an entire game, anyway- things have changed as time dwindles for Snyder).  Wouldn't be surprised to see KSU jump out front in the first half- have run for around 560 yards vs TCU last couple of times out.  

I'm laying off to see if KSU gets a first half lead...I'll be ready to go with TCU second half.
 
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Posted: #31
 
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Posted: #32
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by JS12:

BA, you are the best!

Hit again on another HUGE can't lose ML Par!

If you have any thoughts for this week, I would appreciate it very much.

Teams I am looking at:

USC, Colorado, Houston, Washington, Louisville, Iowa State, Arkansas State.

Do any of the above scream "don't do it" to you?

Or any other team you would toss in the mix?

Thanks for all you do, and hope you are feeling better.


Damn!! I forgot he does that... When does he do it?
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by Dzzy:


Damn!! I forgot he does that... When does he do it?

He gives his thoughts on these every week. He is always right on the money!
 
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Posted: #35
bol this week A-BA
 
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Posted: #36
added a few...........

ONE  UNIT

Ga Tech  +7
Vandy  +4'
Auburn   -4
Ohio  St  -22'
SDSU  -5
NW  -3

smaller

EMich  +4'
TT  +7
Wyoming  +5
NMSU  -4'
Ga St  +7
Fla  -2'
Mich St  -4
Indiana  +7'
Toledo  -7

leans.....TEXAS at 10? wtf....Kan St  at 7....Navy  +3'....NI....Kan St  1H....Tulsa  1H.....Rutgers


don't like a whole lot really....probably shouldn't bet at all....




The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #37
Cannot (possibly) Lose ML Parlay
 
10/14/2017 12:00 PM College Football 130 Temple* -365  vs Connecticut
10/14/2017 7:00 PM College Football 145 Tulane* -550  vs Florida International
10/14/2017 2:30 PM College Football 154 Marshall* -750  vs Old Dominion
10/14/2017 5:00 PM College Football 171 Appalachian State* -500  vs Idaho
Amount:    $100.00 to win $104.76



UDMLP

10/14/2017 4:30 PM College Football 165 Wyoming* +117  vs Utah State
10/14/2017 3:30 PM College Football 179 Vanderbilt* +150  vs Mississippi
10/14/2017 3:30 PM College Football 182 Texas* +270  vs Oklahoma
10/14/2017 3:45 PM College Football 193 Navy* +140  vs Memphis
10/14/2017 10:00 PM College Football 215 New Mexico* +105  vs Fresno State
Amount:  $10.00 to win $977.69


also?.....EMich.....Rutgers....DUKE/ (some reason I like Duke this week.....will probably bet 'em > but not recommend as it seems I;ve lost the last 2)....S CARO.....UAB....GT 

Texas?.....might win or get killed
  * don't like the 'spot'.....but gotta like TOM getting points dontcha?

6-0 ATS / 5-1 SU
  * COVERED each by an AVERAGE of 25 points

@ Lou  +13  W 34-31
Navy  +1       W 52-31
OU +13'        W 33-23
Lou  +17       W 36-10
Fla St +7'      W 38-24
@ USC  +16'  L 27-24  



back at some point.....might need to take a few weeks off we'll see.....BOL.....................




BTW.....the answer to MANY questions can be found in my 'what the line should be' stuff.....the line is what I consider to be a 'fair' line.....my actual plays reflect the ones I consider to be off
 

The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #38
Thanks BA! You're the man!
 
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Posted: #39
BA....would like to hear your thoughts on Washington/ASU....leaning heavily on ASU to win outright....ASU has had some extra time to prepare and looking good....and Washinghton is travelling.....and almost lost last year in Arizona......thanks.....
 
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Posted: #40
So far my favorites are; Gtech +7, 
South Carolina +3.5 @ Tenn
Utah st -3 vs Wyoming
Auburn -6 va LSU
SDST -7 vs Boise
Colorado St -24 @ Nevada 
Virginia +3.5 at UNC
Tx AM + 3 vs Florida
Washington St -14 at Cal
Air Force/UNLV O 66
N-Illinois -5 @ Buffalo
NC ST -9 @ Pitt
UCLA -1 @ Arizona
 
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Posted: #41
I really liked Toledo, but then I checked out the injury report, as well as the weather report.  I would still take Toledo, but the game is supposed to be played in a heavy rain storm without RB Swanson, and WR Cody Thompson...
 
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Posted: #42
I feel like i want to encourage ppl to take south carolina +3.5 at Tenn off a bye.  This should be a pretty easy W.  Last week, I really liked Wash St to cover, and wrote up a pretty detailed explanation of why it was must bet.  Unfortunately the rest of the forum was on Oregon, and I didnt want to come off too pushy...  
 
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Posted: #43
added a few.....

YES....I know Baylor SUX......
   *  BUT.....they are MUCH better.....almost beat OU / hung with Kan St on the road.....and should not get beat by more than TWENTY SIX points by Okie St (Texas next)....plus ya' gotta figure the bye week helps them more too  <  Okie St is NOT still learning new stuff......so not the same....plus the MULLET has only covered 4 of last 11 after a bye

  * like Kan St at 7.......but seems like 1H maybe a better idea

 * those derty Sun Devils also blow.....but much improved as well....just a hunch says they lose by less than 17'
     note:  they also 'own'.....the Huskies ATS anyway ha,,,,,covering 10 in a row wtf.....also won 9/10 SU seems like

ONE  UNIT

Ga Tech  +7
Vandy  +4'
Auburn   -4
Ohio  St  -22'
SDSU  -5
NW  -3
Baylor  +26

smaller

EMich  +4'
TT  +7
Wyoming  +5
NMSU  -4'
Ga St  +7
Fla  -2'
Mich St  -4
Indiana  +7'
Toledo  -7
Ariz St  +17'
Kan St 1H +4
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #44
few notes on OU / TX.....

I kinda sorta maybe......like(d) OU here...........................
   * as a SPOT guy....the spot definitely favors OU

BUT....I NEVER thought they were gonna be any good this year.....didn't feel right
  * sure the win at Ohio St gave me pause

But a BOUNCEBACK here?......why didn't they 'bounceback' at HOME....(off bad Baylor game) ???.....vs a back-up QB wtf
 $ what's the excuse for the Baylor game?.... looking ahead to Iowa St?

SO....I'm leaning Texas now.......strong lean maybe
  * if I had any guts at all.....I would go all in on Texas / TOM

Usually I stay away from this one anyway.....and bet halftime / in-game.............WHY?


As OU / Texas fans might recall......a team is either ready to play at the START.....or they ain't

Only 3X since 2002 has the team up at the half lost the game

2009 down by 3...Horns came back when Sam B got hurt 1Q
2006 down by 3....true Fr Colt M brought Horns back
2002 down by 3....all time choke artist Chris Simms let OU come back ha
  * note:  never has a deficit more than 3 been overcome

AND.....

Only 5X has the SU winner of the 1H not 'won' the 2H
 $$$   ONLY TWICE....has the total flipped 1H > 2H
  * meaning 13 of 15 years.... 1H went under / so did 2H....and vice versa


The reason why this came back to me.....good thing
  * is because I was thinking that OU might jump out to an early lead......and Horns would come back to win / or keep it close......MAYBE NOT


2016 1st.....

OU vs TX
                                    SU      line        ATS

OKLA 17 TEXAS 24       L       +16.5      L      60.0 U
TEXAS 26 OKLA 31      W        -16.5     L      44.5 O
OKLA 20 TEXAS 36       L       +13.5      L      57.5 U
TEXAS 21 OKLA 63      W         -3.0     W      54.5 O
OKLA 55 TEXAS 17      W        +11.0    W     55.5 O
TEXAS 20 OKLA 28      W          -3.5     W     46.5 O
OKLA 13 TEXAS 16       L          -3.0      P      52.0 U
TEXAS 45 OKLA 35        L            -7.0    L      56.5 O/
OKLA 28 TEXAS 21       W         +12.0     L      56.0 U
OKLA 10 TEXAS 28        L          -4.0       L      47.5 U
OKLA 12 TEXAS 45        L          -14.0     L      51.0 O
TEXAS 0 OKLA 12          W         -7.0       W     54.0 U
OKLA 65 TEXAS 13        W        +6.5       W      53.0 O
OKLA 35 TEXAS 24        W         -3.0       W       46.0 O


The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by alopez14325:

I feel like i want to encourage ppl to take south carolina +3.5 at Tenn off a bye.  This should be a pretty easy W.  Last week, I really liked Wash St to cover, and wrote up a pretty detailed explanation of why it was must bet.  Unfortunately the rest of the forum was on Oregon, and I didnt want to come off too pushy...  

like most all of those AL.......BOL man.............

might add S Caro.....been thinking about it.....did bet a small amount on the ML......Gators deserve to get beat with those beyond hideous uniforms
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by lmb4321:

BA....would like to hear your thoughts on Washington/ASU....leaning heavily on ASU to win outright....ASU has had some extra time to prepare and looking good....and Washinghton is travelling.....and almost lost last year in Arizona......thanks.....

on it small (0.75 unit) boss.....dam good idea...............

small because Huskies on a pretty good roll.....Peterson a transcendent type coach > unlikely they no-show here......but a flat spot not out of the question you bet

check this out........WEIRD

ASU vs UW

9-1 SU / 10-0 ATS


ARIZST 18 WASH 44       L      -27.0      W      62.5 U
WASH 17 ARIZST 27      W       -2.5       W      50.0 U
ARIZST 24 WASH 10       W      +3.5      W       61.0 U
WASH 24 ARIZST 53       W       -3.5      W        67.5 O
ARIZST 24 WASH 14       W        -1.0      W       59.0 U
WASH 17 ARIZST 24       W        -6.5      W       46.5 U
ARIZST 39 WASH 19        W     +13.0     W        48.5 O
WASH 20 ARIZST 44       W       -12.0     W         54.0 O
ARIZST 26 WASH 23       W        +2.0     W          49.5 U
WASH 20 ARIZST 44       W       -14.0     W           59.5 O


The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

few notes on OU / TX.....

I kinda sorta maybe......like(d) OU here...........................
   * as a SPOT guy....the spot definitely favors OU

BUT....I NEVER thought they were gonna be any good this year.....didn't feel right
  * sure the win at Ohio St gave me pause

But a BOUNCEBACK here?......why didn't they 'bounceback' at HOME....(off bad Baylor game) ???.....vs a back-up QB wtf
 $ what's the excuse for the Baylor game?.... looking ahead to Iowa St?

SO....I'm leaning Texas now.......strong lean maybe
  * if I had any guts at all.....I would go all in on Texas / TOM

Usually I stay away from this one anyway.....and bet halftime / in-game.............WHY?


As OU / Texas fans might recall......a team is either ready to play at the START.....or they ain't

Only 3X since 2002 has the team up at the half lost the game

2009 down by 3...Horns came back when Sam B got hurt 1Q
2006 down by 3....true Fr Colt M brought Horns back
2002 down by 3....all time choke artist Chris Simms let OU come back ha
  * note:  never has a deficit more than 3 been overcome

AND.....

Only 5X has the SU winner of the 1H not 'won' the 2H
 $$$   ONLY TWICE....has the total flipped 1H > 2H
  * meaning 13 of 15 years.... 1H went under / so did 2H....and vice versa


The reason why this came back to me.....good thing
  * is because I was thinking that OU might jump out to an early lead......and Horns would come back to win / or keep it close......MAYBE NOT


2016 1st.....

OU vs TX
                                    SU      line        ATS

OKLA 17 TEXAS 24       L       +16.5      L      60.0 U
TEXAS 26 OKLA 31      W        -16.5     L      44.5 O
OKLA 20 TEXAS 36       L       +13.5      L      57.5 U
TEXAS 21 OKLA 63      W         -3.0     W      54.5 O
OKLA 55 TEXAS 17      W        +11.0    W     55.5 O
TEXAS 20 OKLA 28      W          -3.5     W     46.5 O
OKLA 13 TEXAS 16       L          -3.0      P      52.0 U
TEXAS 45 OKLA 35        L            -7.0    L      56.5 O/
OKLA 28 TEXAS 21       W         +12.0     L      56.0 U
OKLA 10 TEXAS 28        L          -4.0       L      47.5 U
OKLA 12 TEXAS 45        L          -14.0     L      51.0 O
TEXAS 0 OKLA 12          W         -7.0       W     54.0 U
OKLA 65 TEXAS 13        W        +6.5       W      53.0 O
OKLA 35 TEXAS 24        W         -3.0       W       46.0 O
I like Texas. Better defense & ST, and I suspect better all around coach with Riley only 6 games in as a HC. I just wish to hell OU hadn't lost last time out. It made this pick much harder...I like the KSU 1st half pick...GL
 
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Posted: #48
I like Texas. Better defense & ST, and I suspect better all around coach with Riley only 6 games in as a HC. I just wish to hell OU hadn't lost last time out. It made this pick much harder...I like the KSU 1st half pick...GL

These threads are playing tricks with my computer tonight..
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by JS12:

Thanks BA! You're the man!

the idea.....is to NOT play the FAT / HAPPY favorite.....sitting pretty on top.....just waiting to get knocked off

but to look for a tough / gritty team playing with a PURPOSE.....a favorite that is playing like a DOG.......VS a weak azz dog.....with little shot at doing much of anything

USC......Utah too tough
 Colorado.....NOPE.....Beavs with new HC.....so ?????
 Houston....works most likely sure.....but Memphis in 5 / Tulsa capable.....bad spot for UH
 Washington....not bad / but dog capable and has won 9/10 vs UW
 Louisville.....HELL NO too flaky
 Iowa State.....HELL NO not off that win man..............
 Arkansas State....not bad....but a lotta points + have ULL in 5 days
    * but yep they won't lose to CC at home 

I looked at Ark St.....Hawaii.....Ohio  seems like..........
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by DrStrangelove:

I like Texas. Better defense & ST, and I suspect better all around coach with Riley only 6 games in as a HC. I just wish to hell OU hadn't lost last time out. It made this pick much harder...I like the KSU 1st half pick...GL

These threads are playing tricks with my computer tonight..

stop it man......I don't wanna play Texas ha...............

IF the Sooners woulda just kicked the crap outta Iowa St.....I would hammer Texas......but like you said...........now?
  *esp Horns off 2OT / physical win

I reckon if it goes to 10.....I will have no choice............
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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