Week 6 and still making slim profits

One of these weeks my favorites and unders will click 

I should eliminate them but it’s fun trying.  

This week starts my real season. There is enough data available now but still more is needed. I wouldn’t say this is the best week but I feel like there are some real hidden gems.  

Illinois vs Purdue -10 seem minimal? Or too many? How about Illinois being dogs the past Two weeks? How about Illinois with Ohio State on deck ? Weak looking favorite 

Arizona the Tucson variety. Dogs the past 2 weeks and one of those were home dogs to Kansas State. The other 2 games were to Weber St. and Hawaii. 
they Have #23 BYU on deck and a bad performance here they could be a home dog in that game.  This is not a team that should be lined at -17 or more. They were bad in 2024 and their lines have been fairly easy to this point. 

Zona has a real good QB but his best stats were with an NFL stud WR.  This could be and should be a sleep walk game and I don’t think Zona has the elite and complete roster to name big time scores. 

in my opinion and it is a concern us Ok St golfing and giving the game away by big mistakes. 

Cal+2.5 

not the greatest team but Duke isn’t that impressive. Cross country travel after a lopsided win. Before last weeks demolition of a banged up Syracuse team they played 3 very decent unranked teams the win vs NC State was the best one. 

Anyway I have question about the line here.  They were in a nice spot last week agent Syr now this doesn’t seem so kind.  
Cross country travel and a 10:30 pm east. Indy time start. 

I’ll take my chances this is a soft spot. 

Nevada 

Fres -13.5 huh? 

Fres 4-1 on the season but the only good team and that was a 7-31 loss to Kansas.  The wins were to Southern U., Hawaii, Oregon State and Georgia Southern

The line vs Georgia Southern? -1.5 

the line vs Hawaii -2.5 

A dog vs Oregon state? Wow 

According to the past lines the major  reason they are laying this many is the won 4 games.  It’s not a dominate team that gives a crappy Nevada team a chance to cover. 

Nevada has been -7 or higher in 2 games this season which were terrible lines as I look back at it. The opponents faced by Nevada are not the greatest.  I think this game is difficult to set an exact line which leaves a best guess situation for lines makers which I like because usually a dog that has failed 3 or more in a row should get a few extra points. 

TCU -14.5 

revenge and CU so far on the season is just a melting pot struggling for consistency.  My fear here is a late back door or CU finally finding its way but I don’t see CU with the winning mojo.

 It’s been a weak win vs Delaware

A lousy coaching decision to play a 3rd string QB in Houston 

a home loss to Gtch when Gtch tried to give that game away with 3 first half turnovers

last week home dogs with a 14-0 start and lose.  

I have been pretty bad picking favorites but I targeted this game when the schedule came out.  
This is going to be a blowout or quite the shock once again.  After back to back elevated seasons I don’t feel that mojo. 

Mich St after finally breaking their 8 game ats losing streak last week they’re finally back on my radar. 

NEB is -11.5 here and for them it’s a lot to ask. Nebraska comes in after a bye week a loss by 3 to Michigan 2 blowouts to non competitive schools and a 3 point win in Kansas City vs Cincy.  This team is rebuilding but still yet to show any type of consistency to lay this many.  If they beat me fine so be it but I’ll make them elevate to do it.  I’m sure that close home loss to Michigan pisses them off but a bye week has settled their emotions. 

Boise +18 

is Notre dame back now? Congrats on getting a struggling Arky team coach fired.  A big win in that type of game isn’t impressive. Then Notre dame just kept pouring it on.  That’s not on notre dame excellence that’s Arky giving up. 

I have to make pregame predictions so yea I like the points a little bit here.  The bottom line to my thinking and recommendation is to bet Boise in game.  One should surely be able to get a better line and Boise won’t give up like last weeks Arky will they.?  

If Boise doesn’t throw in the towel the late 3rd quarter and 4th quarter lines are more valuable but only if the line is about this +18.  If Boise makes the game too close then I’ll just pass. 

If NOTD jumps up early I’ll also buy In on Boise + the elevated line.  

Virginia Tech -4.5 

The problem is done if the players hit the portal after the coach got canned.  I just don’t respect wake as a short road dog. 
Wakes played 5 home games in a row dating back to last season.  3 of those as home dogs and the other 2 were against weaker and lines were both-18.  

like I said I don’t trust wake only getting 4 points on the road when they have been home dogs so much.  That’s a weakness and they need to prove the elevation to me.  Last weeks 1 point loss to Gtch has influenced this line negatively for them. 

Wisconsin +16 and again this the ingame line could even benefit them more. 

2-7 last 9 games after a favorite loss -10 point line last week a bye week after a demoralizing loss to Alabama gas inflated this line. Michigan is not A -16 point favorite.  They only beat New Mexico by 17.  New Mexico is better this season but still.  I know I’m getting a few extra points here because of the bad results Wisconsin has displayed recently. 

Best of Luck this week

BYU should have lost last week but remain ranked and undefeated

WVA had high hopes for this season Bringing back Rich Rod to coach.  He obviously needs a season or 2 to up the talent base again but their recent 2 bad games, losing both by -20 points ats margin. That has influenced the line here.  No way on early a freshman BYU qb that I saw last week should lay this many. Keep an eye on one of BYU studs #4 I forgot his name.  He got banged up. BYU plays BYU fall and doesn’t really have the athletes to run up the scores.  They have played a daily easy schedule 

As long as WVA doesn’t blow up and give the game away this should be a battle and the points are just too elevated. 

@UGACLP1995

you the same,  I appreciate you 

Texas Tech -12.5 

omg another favorite I might Jinx.  

I just feel like Houston’s early success is not only false but is continuing to influence their lines.  If Texas Tech us that team this should be a 21 point type win. 

Also considering Boston College because the line is correct but the loss of their stud QB from 2024 is quite the concern

Pit has FSU on deck do that is possibly a benefit to BC 

@spottie2935

 Agree on most your thoughts but don’t trust WV , like U said Rich rods needs time to hit the transfer portal, Boise State has only beat up on cupcakes , so be careful there , Dame might start steam rolling and keep up the great work ,  U one of favorite posters and remember it’s never in the bank unit it’s in the bank 

@ULLafayettekid

 I agree on WVA on a talent level but on a line evaluation I’m in on them for a short team uptick. 

The thing I believe you might be missing one is BYU evaluation. BYU are over rated as favorites are at the moment.  I believe in this bet 

M

Good luck this week Spottie.  

Who knows about Boise and Notre dame but to be honest I have a thing for betting against long term winning ats teams.  Notre dane qualifies and after last week’s dominant performance at such an easy line at -4 that was pure gold and I knew it.  A lot of people lost hope in Notre dame last week and the psychology has a lot of people back on the money tree of the past 2 seasons.  

in my opinion this is a nice looking boat that’s headed for an iceberg.  We’ll see if I am correct.  

I really believe in the lines and evaluations the books present and last weeks -4 tells me Notre  dame has line issues this season.  

I am ignoring last weeks dominance as that could be placed somewhat on how dysfunctional Arkansas is.

Boise is a risky bet but I believe Notre Dane took advantage last week.  After the first 2 weeks of Notre dame games there is now inconsistency.  At 2 losses they are currently out of the playoffs. We will see if they can cover and remain like the past 2 seasons.  

I am betting against that and with the fact they took advantage of Arky last week and obviously firing a coach is a sign they were not happy with Arky performances.  To me that’s a sell Notre Dame signal because this weeks line will be influenced. 

@ULLafayettekid

 And by the way I really appreciate you for the comment

Best wishes 

BYU was -20 to Stanford a few weeks back and won 27-3.  The only covered because Stanford is that bad.  

BYU plays a certain way, just to win. Dont make mistakes and make the other team elevate.  Laying this many WVA is going to have to give the game away.  Its possible but I have less trust in most non elite teams laying -18

Its just my style and thought process,

2024 game S.Florida @ Charlotte 

S.Florida line +1.5

Good stuff....details matter. Thanks. It goes into a parlay! 

@Last2thirst

@D-Town

@spottie2935

 U welcome and yes I agree BYU does slow play things on offense and I had them when they covered vs Stanford a few weeks I was this way the other whole game and I just being at home in the thin air could help them to get Another slow play cover