Seeing a +7.5 at FD now unfortunately it’s -115. Wonder if other books will follow..
I’m posting my games now so I can move on with my week. I don’t care about posing and getting the best line here. I will be adding additional line updates in my own accounts. If you like any of my plays you can wait for better or worse opportunities
best wishes this week. Enjoy the early post it’s up do one can bet their own games.
For reference I use 3 book apps for best lines. Hard rock Florida does their own thing and deviates on occasion.
Wake under 53.5
Colo +6
Kan St +1
UCLA -15.5
Mem -4
Alab -20.5
C.Mch +28
S.Alab +25.5
Geo /Tn under 50
Pit/WVA under 57.5
WVA + 7
ULL +27.5
MiaFl -16.5
Ohio U +32.5
W.Mch +28
Vir Tch -7
Cstl Car +7.5
Fla +9.5
Tx A&M +7.5
S.Car-5.5
Duke +2.5
Texas-41.5
Spottie - i am so disgusted with my Longhorns after going 0-2 ATS, but I am intrigued with your play. San Jose was embarrassed by an inferior team the week before, and played hard against Texas for 60 minutes. Arch Mannings int in the end zone right before the half killed the momentum and early in the 3rd one of starting wide receivers Moore got injured. The scrubs had a chance to drive in for a cover, but Gibson fumbled. Perhaps they will get an ear full this week, and try to honor their so called mantra of “All Gas No Breaks, and beat this sorry miner team by 50 plus…Is this a firm play or just a lean at this point? Good luck this week.
@LonghornHoosier
San Jose was probably looking ahead
San Jose was lined as a quality team -10 and lost. The lines maker’s original rating should not be influenced by one bad game. A lot of people taking Texas thought they should be motivated to stop but playing a team that has been favored enough recently qualifies that dog to be good enough to keep within the number.
Now what happened was a threat to the line and being 37 point dogs are dangerous and that was the case. I don’t look at matchups and who is talented and all that. I solely look at lines and variances between weeks. Big variances attract me a lot. Top 15 team or better yet top 10 don’t have the variances as much as the other teams. I really want the linesmakers to be confused so he can make the outcome is what they desire based upon perception.
This week UTEP is not in the same class as San Jose St it’s not even close. The resistance against Texas will not be anywhere near last week. Even a first half play should bury this dog.
Ine has to know the lines and what teams are rated at. Very few teams carry that much like 2024 Indiana and Army. The rest all fell into line patterns and capabilities. Teams outside the Top elevate and then regress. Casino gambling is stable fixed odds, so 3 reds in a row is meaningless less in roulette. Sports betting and betting dogs specifically I get the benefit of a moderator increasing my chances. That’s basically what I do and why I play so many games.
There are only a hand full of Indiana’s that play weaker team with lower in control line with a complete outstanding team. This season those general 2024 lines are gone. The lines maker will not allow consistency after such seasons.
San Jose is a decent team in their rated category. UTEP is trash. Never a favorite and if they are their opponents are trash too.
I watch these ingame lines intently and if I get a line discount while in play I add on.
all my bets here are nit everything I do. They are all plays. Most of my money is made in game. Even with worse juice, which sucks but I overcome it with experience and knowledge.
Texas and teams a like have full rosters and can play multiple depth to get the action on film. In some cases these marginal players mess up as well. Before week 6 things can be iffy for all teams.
Botton line is, I try to know the lines, ratings, and capabilities for both teams. Then I look for past games and big variations from past scores. I want overreactions from scores increasing perception thus increasing the lines.
Lastly the dog should be in a situation advantage or the line is where it needs to be.
UAB was another example last week
Looked terrible 2 wells, blown out by Navy the last 2 matchups. No one likes UAB. Coach is suspect. Did you know that z2 years ago Navy was a dog in the matchup how about last year that line was Navy-5
+21 was a complete overreaction to the facts in hand and I gambled that UAB would hang. They did. UAB is a strong favorite this week. That made they a quality dog last week.
Finding valuable teams in previously bad performances is where dogs are best but these dogs have to be valued by the linesmakers in their history.
This weeks best bet is Lou Lafayette +27.5 is that team. Hopefully it’s enough points.
As far as Texas, they were -37 to a team that has a decent amount of games as favorites. UTEP isn’t close to as valued by the linesmakers maker, yet the line isn’t even a TD more. Texas scores at least 50 and UTEP 8. That’s my prediction.
All the games are not random there are lines perception and math involved. I’ve looked ahead to a lot of these games while the Saturday games are playing. I only have my ears and one eye on the Telecast. I’m looking for next weeks gems.
I trust the original lines from week one and start analyzing lines and make adjustments from then.
Auburn Beat Baylor mightily in week one now their lines exploded. Auburn isn’t there yet they just had one excellent game. Blew away the line taking perception with it. Auburn isn’t consistent yet but maybe they are Indiana. The problem with that was Auburn draws attention with betters, Indiana doesn’t have the draw because they are not consistent and have never achieved what Auburn does/did in the past.
In the data base I Use Notre Dame has 340 regular season games vs non ranked teams. 76 regular season games vs ranked teams. NOTD is 38-38 straight up vs ranked teams. NOTD plays A traditional style game. Dominate get a lead play keep away vs inferior teams and win. When they are challenged by ranked teams that creates problems and they can’t have their way as easy.
Evidence of their scheduling. Since 1994 they have been favorites against a ranked opponent 37 times
37 times. They either don’t want to schedule the tough teams or the tough team doesn’t want to play them.
The last 15 game dating back to 2017 NOTD is doing quite well ATS vs ranked teams in regular season games at 12-3 ATS. Surely it’s a gamble to bet against. I just think after last season bad ATS season and this years 0-2 ATS start for Texas A&M this +7.5 could be legit.
Texas A&M back door ATS loss then a -20 ats margin last week is probably adding a point or 2 to this line. I’ve seen Notre Dame be losing late in the game to make a miraculous comeback late to close the deal. Thats how I envision this game.
@Degenbeter
Yup not bad and the cut back so far would be to eliminate the favorites I bet.
Somethings I’m testing. Somethings I’m completely dialed in. I’m prepared for the adversity of a bad week. Try better 20 or more favorites each week, all season. The best ones maybe can elevate past 50/50 because the lines are set up for failure and these teams outside the top 10 are not completely set up to maintain the elevated lines the lines maker has for them. Each elevation more points are added even the best teams have meanderings with in the season. Yes A few teams like Indiana last year get me, but how many teams were like Indiana? I got the the best of most rest of them.
I love betting against teams like this weeks Arizona that played garbage and elevated nicely past them. These teams in paper look delicious to feast on and their opponents look like trash. These teams line will catch up. I’m prepared for the fall back.
I know the data the line history and the possibility of set backs.
Bring on Thursday I’m ready for that under.
Bring on UCLA that’s is far worse than I expected. I’m ready for them to look like a college playoff team this week.
in most cases The team setbacks create better lines moving forward. Im confidently anxious for this weeks outcomes
Stop in anytime. Thx for the comment.
Depending on the lines the college football bracket playoff favorites only lost one game ATS in 2024
Those teams in 2025 when not playing each other and not playing a FCS team. They are 3-11 ATS this season that balances the book for the lines makers for sure.
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