Week 12 Lines Discussion

Another great week in the books. Went 4-1 on spreads since I decided to add PSU 1st half before game time, and hit the +200 Wake ml. Lost PSU and Iowa ml with under a min left. What ya gonna do. Awesome week though. 

As the weeks have rolled on the plays have been shrinking. Each week the lines get tighter and tighter so fewer opportunities present themselves. 

A little short on time right now so I will post more games I'm considering later. As of right now I have just one play:

BOISE +120 - They are the better team in my opinion and in the better situation. SDSU is coming back from the tough travel to Hawaii and back after getting smoked by Hawaii. Boise is coming off their bye with an extra week to prepare and no travel after getting embarrassed at home by Fresno. I will be betting alt lines for Boise too, but wanted to lock in this nice plus money first while it lasts. 

Boise QB is out ...... might still work

Yes sir. Im alright with it, it's a great spot for Boise

Interesting I'll look into that. BOL 

Here are more games I'm considering. Interested to know what people think:

CLEM +125 - Clemson's season is over. But maybe Dabo can motivate them to get to a winning record and try to spoil whatever hopes Louisville might have. Louisville is not winning games they should. Coming off a bad loss at home vs CAL. They lost earlier at home as a favorite against UVA as well. LOU does not play well as a favorite. 

CIN -6.5 - Cincy sitting at 7-2 and off a bye week after a 31 pt beat down in Utah. We have Arizona coming to town after squeaking by Kansas with a TD with under a min remaining. We also have west coast team traveling east for early start in play here. Cincy should get it done. I'm waiting on this one to see if it comes down to 5.5 maybe. 

OKST +20.5 - This is just a lot of points for KSU to be laying. If I do decide to get involved I will wait and see if it gets higher

SC +19.5 - The Gamecocks have been scrappy and hanging around in games. They lost by 9 at MIZ, 10 at LSU, 19 vs OU, 7 vs Bama, 16 at Ole Miss. Can they do the same here at TAMU? 

More to come...

WIS +29.5 - Was +30.5 so we'll wait on this one. Just so many points and Indiana should have this game in hand. This could be an ugly low effort game in my opinion. We've got a total at just 44.5. 35-10 final sounds good.

PSU -6.5 - Had a nice win with them last week, unfortunate heart break ending for them. MSU is a team they should be able to push around and physically dominate. 

UCLA +33.5 - Another bucket of points in a game with a total that is only 48.5. Could be similar to last week where OSU beat Purdue 34-10. Probably they should be looking ahead to conserving themselves for playoffs in a game here that they probably won't be challenged in

S Car 

Cincy  They have a big game on deck and this line stinks.  Cincy doesnt belong ranked in my opinion. Their best wins came against a struggling Baylor team and OKST.  I have this tagged as a weak favorite but a good dog next week against BYU. I have Tex Tch Utah BYU  then Cincy.  Looking at the big 12 teams as Home favorites in 2025 ( eliminating the standouts Utah and Texa Tech) The rest of the big 12 teams as home favorites are 12-15 ATS. I could dig even further into ths to make the point that Cincy and the rest of the B12 favorites are not worthy but I have made my case.  Minimum this is a bet that cashes less than 48% according to the data.

Just so I am Clear its not a great bet on Zona either and I want to make certain I am not bashing or fading you intentionally.  Just making you aware of my vision. 

Best Wishes

these are the more difficult weeks for me but I do trust the data, and my search ideas

Yea this week is really tough, nothing that I'm very confident in other than Boise. I haven't bet any of these other ones. 

Appreciate your opinion on Cincy. That's why I post this stuff. I dont take it as any bashing whatsoever, I hope people post if they disagree and why. The whole idea is to keep getting better and find out what I'm missing in any given game that would make me want to stay away. 

The greatest increase in my bottom line is from learning which games to stay away from. 

Maybe I will end up with only the one bet this week who knows

Im saying it because I really am okay with the backup QB. I think it's giving us better value than what the starting QB is worth and the backup played almost all game against Fresno. He wasn't good in that game, but this time they are off a bye and he's going in as the starter now with an extra week to prepare. I dont think revenge from 3 years ago necessarily means anything. Traveling to Hawaii and getting smacked down and then back to face Boise off a bye is a tough task. Maybe they can do it, but the price on Boise at plus money in a great situation makes it a solid play for me. 

Appreciate the response, good luck this week 

@Yanasaur

 Didn’t mean revenge from 3 years ago I meant Aztecs have lost the last 3 against Boise. Boise’s qb was put through a meat grinder against Fresno they ate him up. He clearly showed he wasn’t caught up to the speed of the game just was too slow in his decision making. I look at it like this, overall percentage wise surely a qb making his first start on the road and winning can’t be better than 25-30% now couple that with making your first start on the road against the best defense in the conference and that winning percentage probably goes down to at best 10%. Aztecs ran through that same Fresno team 23-0. Love your writeups I just like to add to discussion. 

@Yanasaur

 I like Cincy too for all the reasons you mentioned. Zona just punched their bowl ticket after a game they didn’t deserve to win, now head onto road to a team off a bye that has had 2 weeks to prepare/stew off a beat down 

Added:

CLEM ml +115 - Went ahead and made this a play

@spottie2935

Do you really think there is such a thing as a “look ahead game” in football?  They play like 12 weeks, one day a week, lol.  This isn’t a long season.

do you think I would post something that I don’t believe to be true.

obviously we are not congruent.  I’ve seen some of your posts.  I’m not interested in a conversation with you.  Good luck on your plays.  

covers won’t allow me to post photos and make a better case of what I see and know to be factual. Besides even if I tried to make a case it doesn’t sound like you’re open minded enough to listen.  

peace out I’m out 

I think Cincinnati is money -6 versus Arizona. 

How could you think there is not such a thing? Every year you will see teams that have big games on deck against tough competition underperform against a weak opponent

Alright light board for us this week 1-0 to start w CLEM ml 

Added:

PSU -6.5 - Wrote it up earlier, making it a play

TCU -2.5 +150

I also like UGA -5.5 but I'm just gonna watch and enjoy that game.

Good luck everyone 

Yes… one would think…… Penn st finishes out the season with effort and focus.   

Nice work. GL 

@Mskeets

@Fuse

@Yanasaur

 Good luck on your bets. Cincy has starting RB and #2 WR out going to pass on that one too 

@Fritzy03

 Yea I ended up passing on that. Only ones I actually bet was Clemson, PSU, TCU, and Boise