DoubleUp, I know you already placed your wager, but I wanna talk on this Vandy/Florida game,
and I hope you don't mind my intrusion on your thread here.
I wanted to do some thorough historical research on this one to help back my eye test of Florida coming off that Georgia game, and I'll present here and we can try and interpret it.
After watching that game last week, especially in the second half after they had shaken off their bye rust, I told myself I was going to bet Florida next week against Vandy, even if it was 2 TD's. Florida's defense looked so solid, and I felt their offense was really coming together. Murphy started to resemble a dual threat. When I saw Florida -9.5 -120, I was ready to pull the trigger...until I read your thread.
Now I always refer to you to see what you're doing before every Saturday, and CFB has become my strongest + most profitable handicapping venture, in part thanks to you (+ Jimmy the freak). So I knew what you were getting it when you said 'What can Florida have left?'. So i wanted to see how they do after Georgia historically, and here are the numbers.
Florida is 10-0 SU after playing UGA in their last 10. Florida is 5-5 ATS in last 10 following Georgia game. Florida is 0-2 in their last 2 (both under Muschamp) following the Georgia game.
Needless to say, the latter stat is the most disconcerting for Florida backers. In 2012 they beat Mizzou 14-7 (and were giving 17.5), and in 2011, they beat Vandy 26-21 (and were giving 13.5).
As for Vanderbilt, I haven't researched the numbers as intricately, but I do know this from pure spectating. They are a different team on the road. We're talking 65+ yards per game worse than their overall averages on offense, and 70+ YPG worse than their overall averages on defense. And yes, I understand they have experienced some flux at QB, and their D had to deal with Manziel in one of those games, but it is still something to consider.
As far as motivation is concerned, there should be equal amounts on each side. Both need to win to increase the likelihood of bowl eligibility. I like the faster, more talented squad at home here, but I'd love to use what I've put here as a stepping stone to further discussion.
BOL as always and nice score on Buff!
Established in 1995,
get it du4L
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