I think you're right.... at least concerning South Alabama -- probably a low rating for them. This is an inconsistent team that I struggled to grade out at the end of 2016.
I went back and took another look. I had them at a PR # of 52.4 to end 2016. Using my own #s for all opponents, they came out at 7-6 ATS and with a full season ATS margin of +46.1 (+42.6 for the San Diego State game alone). Knowing how Rocky Long approaches non-league games, I could not give "full credit" to that large plus # for the margin they covered by. This is a flaky team to me that seems to play to their level of competition (again, maybe higher upside and I should consider reflecting that in a revised #). But then again, 1-7 ATS vs. Sun Belt opponents.
ATS margin breakdown I had:
vs. #26: +42.6 pts
vs. #55 - #76: average +7.9 pts
vs. #89 - #101: average -1.4 pts
vs. #113 - two bad FCS opponents: average -4.8 pts
And, for offseason adjustments I knocked them down slightly even further, especially on offense with the loss of their top 4 WRs/TE. Basically no change / slight improvement in the offseason adjustment I did for defense.
All that said, my #s spit out a line against Oklahoma State of 32. Well off of market fair line value.
Anyway, good comment there. You've always had a good eye for these things. Thanks for the feedback. Will adjust according going forward. I'm interested to see if they can continue their ways of playing up to tougher opponents vs. Oklahoma State.
I think you're right.... at least concerning South Alabama -- probably a low rating for them. This is an inconsistent team that I struggled to grade out at the end of 2016.
I went back and took another look. I had them at a PR # of 52.4 to end 2016. Using my own #s for all opponents, they came out at 7-6 ATS and with a full season ATS margin of +46.1 (+42.6 for the San Diego State game alone). Knowing how Rocky Long approaches non-league games, I could not give "full credit" to that large plus # for the margin they covered by. This is a flaky team to me that seems to play to their level of competition (again, maybe higher upside and I should consider reflecting that in a revised #). But then again, 1-7 ATS vs. Sun Belt opponents.
ATS margin breakdown I had:
vs. #26: +42.6 pts
vs. #55 - #76: average +7.9 pts
vs. #89 - #101: average -1.4 pts
vs. #113 - two bad FCS opponents: average -4.8 pts
And, for offseason adjustments I knocked them down slightly even further, especially on offense with the loss of their top 4 WRs/TE. Basically no change / slight improvement in the offseason adjustment I did for defense.
All that said, my #s spit out a line against Oklahoma State of 32. Well off of market fair line value.
Anyway, good comment there. You've always had a good eye for these things. Thanks for the feedback. Will adjust according going forward. I'm interested to see if they can continue their ways of playing up to tougher opponents vs. Oklahoma State.
Not sure why you are so high on Ohio State, I see them losing to Oklahoma... They looked plain bad against Iowa, and their secondary got shredded...
USC looked absolutely horrible too... They literally almost lost to unranked Western Michigan...
Oklahoma should be top 5...
You put Florida ahead of South Carolina?
I just stopped reading after that...
Tappy,
I really like OSU at home vs. Oklahoma. Think they cover and win going away. I think they somewhat outclass Oklahoma and show it. OSU top 3 talent in the nation IMO with Alabama and Clemson.
USC may be overvalued. 12 straight weeks of games is another factor that somehow has to be built in to their rating. They can't extend themselves every week.
And I set the DVR tonight to record the entire UM / Florida game. I saw bits and pieces on Saturday but was going back & forth from other games that I actually had $ on and then the rest of the family and extended family got home and it was complete chaos for my football watching agenda. .... Anyway, you are probably right that Florida should be knocked down a little further. I noticed tonight that my spreadsheet had a correct "0" for home field advantage points (neutral site game) in the week 1 column, but not in week 2 and beyond columns for the same game (*I track the ebb & flow of all game lines if they were played any given week). What I thought was updated to a calculated 7.6 point spread on this game, actually was not.
Not sure I'm quite ready to put South Carolina ahead of Florida (that would be a real over-reaction IMO this early in the year). But they are certainly rising with that big win. Will see if they can sustain the momentum. I think Missouri has major issues on defense and the strong QB play on offense may not be able to make up for the terrible D.
Hang in there man (reading this thread that is).... Hopefully you make it a little further next time. Good luck this weekend and thanks for the feedback.
Not sure why you are so high on Ohio State, I see them losing to Oklahoma... They looked plain bad against Iowa, and their secondary got shredded...
USC looked absolutely horrible too... They literally almost lost to unranked Western Michigan...
Oklahoma should be top 5...
You put Florida ahead of South Carolina?
I just stopped reading after that...
Tappy,
I really like OSU at home vs. Oklahoma. Think they cover and win going away. I think they somewhat outclass Oklahoma and show it. OSU top 3 talent in the nation IMO with Alabama and Clemson.
USC may be overvalued. 12 straight weeks of games is another factor that somehow has to be built in to their rating. They can't extend themselves every week.
And I set the DVR tonight to record the entire UM / Florida game. I saw bits and pieces on Saturday but was going back & forth from other games that I actually had $ on and then the rest of the family and extended family got home and it was complete chaos for my football watching agenda. .... Anyway, you are probably right that Florida should be knocked down a little further. I noticed tonight that my spreadsheet had a correct "0" for home field advantage points (neutral site game) in the week 1 column, but not in week 2 and beyond columns for the same game (*I track the ebb & flow of all game lines if they were played any given week). What I thought was updated to a calculated 7.6 point spread on this game, actually was not.
Not sure I'm quite ready to put South Carolina ahead of Florida (that would be a real over-reaction IMO this early in the year). But they are certainly rising with that big win. Will see if they can sustain the momentum. I think Missouri has major issues on defense and the strong QB play on offense may not be able to make up for the terrible D.
Hang in there man (reading this thread that is).... Hopefully you make it a little further next time. Good luck this weekend and thanks for the feedback.
Td..... any interest in alcorn+20? They can score with a good O and i cant imagine fiu's fully in this game after basically evacuating to alabama for this game......and have made plans to stay in birmingham all week if needed. Also nxt game is a big matchup @Indiana.
Td..... any interest in alcorn+20? They can score with a good O and i cant imagine fiu's fully in this game after basically evacuating to alabama for this game......and have made plans to stay in birmingham all week if needed. Also nxt game is a big matchup @Indiana.
Nice work. I appreciate all the hard work it must take to develop your own PR #'s. I thought about doing this myself with College Football and Basketball. Do you do basketball as well? I'm more of a Football person.
Back in 2008 I had a 10 game parlay ticket. I placed $10 on the ticket and the payout would have been just over $6400. Going into the final game I was 9 for 9, and on the 10th game I lost. I wouldn't mind losing on an earlier game, but the last game was a girl.
Keep posting. I'll keep checking in and I'll probably play some your plays.
Nice work. I appreciate all the hard work it must take to develop your own PR #'s. I thought about doing this myself with College Football and Basketball. Do you do basketball as well? I'm more of a Football person.
Back in 2008 I had a 10 game parlay ticket. I placed $10 on the ticket and the payout would have been just over $6400. Going into the final game I was 9 for 9, and on the 10th game I lost. I wouldn't mind losing on an earlier game, but the last game was a girl.
Keep posting. I'll keep checking in and I'll probably play some your plays.
TD...I am a bit confused. Where do you see lines like Oregon -2 1/2 or Stanford +101/2? I know they never opened at close to your numbers. I follow and respect your capping but as I said, I am confused.
TD...I am a bit confused. Where do you see lines like Oregon -2 1/2 or Stanford +101/2? I know they never opened at close to your numbers. I follow and respect your capping but as I said, I am confused.
TD...I am a bit confused. Where do you see lines like Oregon -2 1/2 or Stanford +101/2? I know they never opened at close to your numbers. I follow and respect your capping but as I said, I am confused.
absolutely no need to be confused. i'll clear it up for you.
TD...I am a bit confused. Where do you see lines like Oregon -2 1/2 or Stanford +101/2? I know they never opened at close to your numbers. I follow and respect your capping but as I said, I am confused.
absolutely no need to be confused. i'll clear it up for you.
Puffkit, personally I would pass. I really have not reviewed this game in much detail at all. Did not initially catch my eye as a potential play either way, so I didn't spend any more time on it. As a general statement, I would rarely ever consider playing a swac or meac team playing an FBS opponent. I see you're more up to speed than I am on FIU's last few days due to Irma. May affect them worse next week at IU. I saw +21 about a half hr ago but seeing 20 now in a couple places. I'd want to be on the right side of a key # to back a swac team.
Puffkit, personally I would pass. I really have not reviewed this game in much detail at all. Did not initially catch my eye as a potential play either way, so I didn't spend any more time on it. As a general statement, I would rarely ever consider playing a swac or meac team playing an FBS opponent. I see you're more up to speed than I am on FIU's last few days due to Irma. May affect them worse next week at IU. I saw +21 about a half hr ago but seeing 20 now in a couple places. I'd want to be on the right side of a key # to back a swac team.
absolutely no need to be confused. i'll clear it up for you.
they 100% opened at those numbers at BOL.
here is Oregon for example:
09/03/17 02:33:54pm
+6½ev
-6½-20
09/03/17 02:33:30pm
+6ev
-6-20
09/03/17 02:32:53pm
+5ev
-5-20
09/03/17 02:32:23pm
+4ev
-4-20
09/03/17 02:32:04pm
+3ev
-3-20
09/03/17 02:31:46pm
+3-05
-3-15
09/03/17 02:31:09pm
+2½-10
-2½-10
09/03/17 02:30:33pm
+2-10
-2-10
bitty11, this is exactly right. As post #8 says, Betonline openers.
Thanks jefff, what site logs this minute by minute level of detail? I honestly didn't know a site kept this level of detail. Good to know for when I get the same question next week.
absolutely no need to be confused. i'll clear it up for you.
they 100% opened at those numbers at BOL.
here is Oregon for example:
09/03/17 02:33:54pm
+6½ev
-6½-20
09/03/17 02:33:30pm
+6ev
-6-20
09/03/17 02:32:53pm
+5ev
-5-20
09/03/17 02:32:23pm
+4ev
-4-20
09/03/17 02:32:04pm
+3ev
-3-20
09/03/17 02:31:46pm
+3-05
-3-15
09/03/17 02:31:09pm
+2½-10
-2½-10
09/03/17 02:30:33pm
+2-10
-2-10
bitty11, this is exactly right. As post #8 says, Betonline openers.
Thanks jefff, what site logs this minute by minute level of detail? I honestly didn't know a site kept this level of detail. Good to know for when I get the same question next week.
Made some updates last night to the Sunday / Monday games previously shown in red. Did not have a chance to post until now. Also made some other tweaks. After another look at the Ole Miss / South Alabama game being 47-13 in the 4th qtr and 2 late scores made it 47-27, I felt a little better about where I have South Alabama. Decided to keep them there until I saw them play Oklahoma State. Also, tells me that Mississippi this year is a little like Baylor last year - no depth. First 11 guys on defense ok, but they'll play to avoid injuries late in non-conference games like this.
*Just found two previous typos and corrected; Colorado and Ohio U. not downgraded (well, not yet for OU), just correcting my original # from last Sunday.
None of last night's games or tonight's games are included. Strictly a post week 1 update.
Made some updates last night to the Sunday / Monday games previously shown in red. Did not have a chance to post until now. Also made some other tweaks. After another look at the Ole Miss / South Alabama game being 47-13 in the 4th qtr and 2 late scores made it 47-27, I felt a little better about where I have South Alabama. Decided to keep them there until I saw them play Oklahoma State. Also, tells me that Mississippi this year is a little like Baylor last year - no depth. First 11 guys on defense ok, but they'll play to avoid injuries late in non-conference games like this.
*Just found two previous typos and corrected; Colorado and Ohio U. not downgraded (well, not yet for OU), just correcting my original # from last Sunday.
None of last night's games or tonight's games are included. Strictly a post week 1 update.
Is that real? The line moved 4.5 points in 3 minutes?
Yes, the BOL lines are corrected almost instantly. Still not sure where he found that very early line movement, but it is what happens.
The Mississippi State line is another good example. From the time I saw it open at PK, there's about 5 clicks to lock in your bet; 1) select the team/line 2) select straight bet 3) click max bet or enter $ amount 4) submit wager 5) confirm wager.
By the time I tried to confirm, it went to -1.5 I believe it was. Didn't get that either. Then on the 3rd or 4th try I finally locked in -3 @-120. All this literally within 20-30 seconds.
Is that real? The line moved 4.5 points in 3 minutes?
Yes, the BOL lines are corrected almost instantly. Still not sure where he found that very early line movement, but it is what happens.
The Mississippi State line is another good example. From the time I saw it open at PK, there's about 5 clicks to lock in your bet; 1) select the team/line 2) select straight bet 3) click max bet or enter $ amount 4) submit wager 5) confirm wager.
By the time I tried to confirm, it went to -1.5 I believe it was. Didn't get that either. Then on the 3rd or 4th try I finally locked in -3 @-120. All this literally within 20-30 seconds.
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