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TD Week 1

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

TD , Good Luck this Season      

Thanks WISE, same to you.  Hope it's a great year!  
 
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Posted: #27
Took Texas A&M again at Clemson......

RSW Totals:
Mississippi State Under 8 +140  (risking 0.5u to win 0.7u)
Utah Over 8.5 -160  (risking 0.8u to win 0.5u)
Illinois Over 3 +110 & -110
UMass Under 4.5  -120 & -140
Cincinnati Over 5.5  -190
Georgia Tech Under 4.5 -190

Look ahead lines:
Georgia -20 & -20.5 at Georgia Tech (11/30)  (1u)
Texas A&M +21 at Clemson (9/7)  (0.3u) & Texas A&M +17 (0.7u) -- 1u overall
LSU -2.5  at Texas  (9/7)  (0.75u)
Clemson -20 at Syracuse (9/14)  (0.5u)
Baylor -2.5 & -3  vs. West Virginia (10/31)  (0.4u)
Oregon PK at Stanford  (9/21)  (0.5u)
Michigan State +13.5 at Ohio State  (10/5)  (0.4u)
Washington State -7 at Houston (9/13 NRG Stadium)  (0.4u)
Washington PK at Stanford  (10/5)  (0.3u)

Oklahoma -11.5  at UCLA (9/14)  (0.5u)
Washington -7.5 vs. USC (9/28)  (0.4u)
Tennessee +14.5 at Florida (9/21)  (0.25u)


 
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Posted: #28

Any opinion on the UCLA Cincinnatti game? Im leaning UCLA 

 
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Posted: #29

Conference Futures:
Utah +350  (0.15u to win 0.525u)
Memphis +400  (0.15u to win 0.6u)
Western Michigan +950  (0.5u to win 4.75u)
Clemson -335  (0.335u to win 0.1u)
Virginia +3000  (0.1u to win 3.0u)  
Iowa State +1250  (0.15u to win 1.875u)
*At a minimum, hoping for a decent hedge opportunity with the way the schedule sets up (both Oklahoma & Texas in November).  Front 7 on D will be strong in 2019.
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by Cdvwolves:

Any opinion on the UCLA Cincinnatti game? Im leaning UCLA 


Not at this time..... I still need to review 1 of these 2 teams in more detail.  I suspect it will be a no-play for me.  With their early schedule and with it being a revenge game, UCLA should be focused.  I can see why you lean that way.  I want to look closer at UCLA's talent level among other things.  ......Chip Kelly has really had a different approach to recruiting so far at UCLA -- less offers, so when a player finally says no, do they miss out on a certain talent level and settle for what's left???? - it shouldn't matter against a team like Cinci, but against elite talent, it will be interesting to see how they do the next few years.
 
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Posted: #31
Agree with you and i like the Memphis future bet. Many people dont realize how many good athletes come out of Memphis and with Norvels system it just works. The only thing that worries me about them is Brady White(i think thats his name) he is terrible at deep throws and stretching the field so against the better teams Memphis will struggle to score. They should also be better defensively this year. 

 
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Posted: #32
Recent update in bold.....

RSW Totals:
Mississippi State Under 8 +140  (risking 0.5u to win 0.7u)
Utah Over 8.5 -160  (risking 0.8u to win 0.5u)
Illinois Over 3 +110 & -110
UMass Under 4.5  -120 & -140
Cincinnati Over 5.5  -190
Georgia Tech Under 4.5 -190

Look ahead lines:
Georgia -20 & -20.5 at Georgia Tech (11/30)  (1u)
Texas A&M +21 at Clemson (9/7)  (0.3u) & Texas A&M +17 (0.7u) -- 1u overall
LSU -2.5  at Texas  (9/7)  (0.75u)
Clemson -20 at Syracuse (9/14)  (0.5u)
Oregon PK at Stanford  (9/21)  (0.5u)
Baylor -2.5 & -3  vs. West Virginia (10/31)  (0.4u)
Michigan State +13.5 at Ohio State  (10/5)  (0.4u)
Washington State -7 at Houston (9/13 NRG Stadium)  (0.4u)
Texas Tech +17.5 at Oklahoma (9/28)  (0.4u)
Washington PK at Stanford  (10/5)  (0.3u)

Oklahoma -11.5  at UCLA (9/14)  (0.5u)
Washington -7.5 vs. USC (9/28)  (0.4u)
Tennessee +14.5 at Florida (9/21)  (0.25u)


 
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Posted: #33
Recently added Playoff Prop:

National Championship Futures:
Alabama +240  (0.3u to win 0.72u)
Utah +10000  (0.1u to win 10u)  

Playoff Prop:
Clemson to make the 4 team playoff:  Yes -280  (Risk 0.56u to win 0.2u)

 
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Posted: #34
Many more teams being released today.....

RSW Totals:
Mississippi State Under 8 +140  (risking 0.5u to win 0.7u)
Utah Over 8.5 -160  (risking 0.8u to win 0.5u)
Illinois Over 3 +110 & -110
UMass Under 4.5  -120 & -140
Cincinnati Over 5.5  -190
Georgia Tech Under 4.5 -190
Akron Under 3.5 -120 & -155 (0.4u overall)


 
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Posted: #35
A couple Week 0 / Week 1 Totals released today too..... very nice.

Week 1 plays locked in:
Purdue -8.5  (2u)
Rutgers -11 (1u)
Rice +24.5  (1u)
Virginia -1.5  (0.5u)
Fresno State +14  -120  (0.5u)

Miami / Florida Under 50.5  (0.2u)
Oregon / Auburn Under 58  (0.5u)
 
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Posted: #36
A couple more that must have came out today (or I missed them late yesterday)........

RSW Totals:
Mississippi State Under 8 +140  (risking 0.5u to win 0.7u)
Utah Over 8.5 -160  (risking 0.8u to win 0.5u)
Illinois Over 3 +110 & -110
UMass Under 4.5  -120 & -140
Cincinnati Over 5.5  -190
Georgia Tech Under 4.5 -190
Akron Under 3.5 -120 & -155
Western Michigan Over 7.5 +120 & -120
Louisiana Lafayette Over 5.5  -170



 
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Posted: #37
A few 2019 PR#s thus far:
If a P5 team is missing, it's because I'm still working.....Big Ten & Big 12 are done..... several SEC, ACC, & Pac 12 teams to go.

Alabama  107.1
Clemson  103.4
Georgia  98.2
LSU  95.7
Oklahoma  91.7
Michigan  91.0
Texas A&M  90.5
Ohio State  90.4
Utah  88.1
Notre Dame  87.9
Florida  87.9
Washington  87.7
Texas  85.8
Michigan State  85.5
Penn State  84.0
Auburn  84.0
Oregon  83.7
Iowa State  83.7
Washington State  81.9
Wisconsin  81.9
Mississippi State  81.6
Nebraska  81.6
Purdue  81.4
Iowa  81.4
Texas Tech  81.4
Oklahoma State  81.0
Stanford  79.9
USC  79.9
Miami  79.7
Minnesota  79.5
Northwestern  78.5
TCU  78.1
Virginia  77.2
Syracuse  77.0
BYU  76.8
Baylor  76.3
Indiana  76.2
California  76.1
Kansas State  75.0
West Virginia  72.9
Army  72.6
Maryland  69.4
Illinois  67.0
Georgia Tech  65.7
Rutgers  60.9
Kansas  59.8













 
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Posted: #38
Balance of SEC inserted below.

Alabama  107.1
Clemson  103.4
Georgia  98.2
LSU  95.7
Oklahoma  91.7
Michigan  91.0
Texas A&M  90.5
Ohio State  90.4
Utah  88.1
Notre Dame  87.9
Florida  87.9
Washington  87.7
Texas  85.8
Michigan State  85.5
Penn State  84.0
Auburn  84.0
Oregon  83.7
Iowa State  83.7
Washington State  81.9
Wisconsin  81.9
Mississippi State  81.6
Nebraska  81.6
South Carolina 81.6
Purdue  81.4
Iowa  81.4
Texas Tech  81.4
Tennessee 81.2
Missouri  81.1
Oklahoma State  81.0
Stanford  79.9
USC  79.9
Miami  79.7
Minnesota  79.5
Northwestern  78.5
TCU  78.1
Virginia  77.2
Syracuse  77.0
BYU  76.8
Baylor  76.3
Indiana  76.2
California  76.1
Kansas State  75.0
Kentucky  73.9
West Virginia  72.9
Army  72.6
Vanderbilt  72.3
Mississippi  71.1
Maryland  69.4
Arkansas  69.2
Illinois  67.0
Georgia Tech  65.7
Rutgers  60.9
Kansas  59.8













[/Quote]
 
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Posted: #39
Not sure what happened on post #39..... will try again.  Balance of SEC teams inserted below.

Alabama  107.1
Clemson  103.4
Georgia  98.2
LSU  95.7
Oklahoma  91.7
Michigan  91.0
Texas A&M  90.5
Ohio State  90.4
Utah  88.1
Notre Dame  87.9
Florida  87.9
Washington  87.7
Texas  85.8
Michigan State  85.5
Penn State  84.0
Auburn  84.0
Oregon  83.7
Iowa State  83.7
Washington State  81.9
Wisconsin  81.9
Mississippi State  81.6
Nebraska  81.6
South Carolina  81.6
Purdue  81.4
Iowa  81.4
Texas Tech  81.4
Tennessee  81.2
Missouri  81.1
Oklahoma State  81.0
Stanford  79.9
USC  79.9
Miami  79.7
Minnesota  79.5
Northwestern  78.5
TCU  78.1
Virginia  77.2
Syracuse  77.0
BYU  76.8
Baylor  76.3
Indiana  76.2
California  76.1
Kansas State  75.0
Kentucky  73.9
West Virginia  72.9
Army  72.6
Vanderbilt  72.3
Mississippi  71.1
Maryland  69.4
Arkansas  69.2
Illinois  67.0
Georgia Tech  65.7
Rutgers  60.9
Kansas  59.8













[/Quote]
 
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Posted: #40
Updates.....

RSW Totals:
Mississippi State Under 8 +140  (risking 0.5u to win 0.7u)
Utah Over 8.5 -160  (risking 0.8u to win 0.5u)
Arizona Under 7 -145  (risking 0.725 to win 0.5u)
Auburn Under 8 -145  (risking 0.58u to win 0.4u)
Illinois Over 3 +110 & -110
UMass Under 4.5  -120 & -140
Cincinnati Over 5.5  -190
Georgia Tech Under 4.5 -190
Akron Under 3.5 -120 & -155
Western Michigan Over 7.5 +120 & -120
Louisiana Lafayette Over 5.5  -170
Texas Tech Over 6 -110

 
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Posted: #41
Updates.....

Look ahead lines:
Georgia -20 & -20.5 at Georgia Tech (11/30)  (1u)
Texas A&M +21 at Clemson (9/7)  (0.3u) & Texas A&M +17 (0.7u) -- 1u overall
LSU -2.5  at Texas  (9/7)  (0.75u)
Clemson -20 at Syracuse (9/14)  (0.5u)
Oregon PK at Stanford  (9/21)  (0.5u)
Baylor -2.5 & -3  vs. West Virginia (10/31)  (0.4u)
Michigan State +13.5 at Ohio State  (10/5)  (0.4u)
Washington State -7 at Houston (9/13 NRG Stadium)  (0.4u)
Texas Tech +17.5 at Oklahoma (9/28)  (0.4u)
Washington PK at Stanford  (10/5)  (0.3u)
Texas A&M -3 vs. Auburn (9/21)  (0.3u)

Oklahoma -11.5  at UCLA (9/14)  (0.5u)
Washington -7.5 vs. USC (9/28)  (0.4u)
Tennessee +14.5 at Florida (9/21)  (0.25u)


 
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Posted: #42
Update..... just to protect the WMU bet some.  Hard to see anyone but OU coming out of the MAC East.

Conference Futures:
Utah +350  (0.15u to win 0.525u)
Memphis +400  (0.15u to win 0.6u)
Western Michigan +950  (0.5u to win 4.75u)
Ohio University +345  (0.145u to win 0.5u)
Clemson -335  (0.335u to win 0.1u)
Virginia +3000  (0.1u to win 3.0u)  
 
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Posted: #43

Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Arizona Under 7 -145  (risking 0.725 to win 0.5u) 

Should have done more $ from the start. ....Decided to bump Arizona Under 7 wins, but at -155 today.  To win another 0.5u.  Call it -150 overall for the two wagers (risking 1.5u to win 1u). 

 

 

 
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Posted: #44
Hey TD. Thank you again for everything you do.  Your work is amazing.  I have a quick question on a few of the game of the year lines. They were just released to me. For these three games at the current lines  available to me  how much would you reduce your unit size by or would you even play them at all?
1) Georgia -20 & -20.5 at Georgia Tech (11/30)  (1u).  My line is UGA -25.5
2) Clemson -20 at Syracuse (9/14)  (0.5u) My line is Clemson -21.5
3)Baylor -2.5 & -3  vs. West Virginia (10/31)  (0.4u). My line is Baylor-6
 Thank you again for everything, J
 
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Posted: #45
 Also one last quick question on the Arizona win total. The line available to me is 6.5 RSW. I know we both win at six wins for them but it’s 6.5, no potential push. How many units would you play at 6.5 please? Thank you again. 
 
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Posted: #46

Thoughts on OHIO over 7.5 wins? I see them competing for the MAC Championship game this year

 
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Posted: #47

Quote Originally Posted by LoveCFB1_:

Thoughts on OHIO over 7.5 wins? I see them competing for the MAC Championship game this year
They play NIU and WM but get them as home games.

 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by gabalja:

Hey TD. Thank you again for everything you do.  Your work is amazing.  I have a quick question on a few of the game of the year lines. They were just released to me. For these three games at the current lines  available to me  how much would you reduce your unit size by or would you even play them at all?
1) Georgia -20 & -20.5 at Georgia Tech (11/30)  (1u).  My line is UGA -25.5
2) Clemson -20 at Syracuse (9/14)  (0.5u) My line is Clemson -21.5
3)Baylor -2.5 & -3  vs. West Virginia (10/31)  (0.4u). My line is Baylor-6
 Thank you again for everything, J

I'd probably take Baylor -6 without much hesitation (closer to fair line by my raw #s, but I still like the spot).  Halloween night Thursday home game & revenge spot after being embarrassed at West Virginia last year.

I think at some point during game week you may see Clemson -21 or better.  I would hold out for the right side of 21.  Syracuse has played them tough, but look at which Clemson QBs were in each game the last two years.  A healthy Clemson QB shows them who's boss this time around.

Georgia / GT - last game of the year, tough to say with a game out that far on the schedule.  I think the Georgia O-Line just annihilates the GT D-Line, but most of my Look-Ahead plays are earlier on the calendar.  5 to 5.5 point swing is tough to swallow.
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by gabalja:

 Also one last quick question on the Arizona win total. The line available to me is 6.5 RSW. I know we both win at six wins for them but it’s 6.5, no potential push. How many units would you play at 6.5 please? Thank you again. 

I'm seeing U7 -155 @ BOL and U6.5 -115 @ 5D.  I would still take Under 6.5 if you're stuck with that number.  I see 4 wins, 5 losses, & 3 toss ups.  Arguably 4 wins, 6 losses, and 2 toss ups.  I think worse for an Under 6.5 bet is that they are 6-5 going into the ASU game and you can hedge if you want to back out.  Best case you've already won when they lose to Oregon and Utah back to back.  I can't see them winning 7 games with a brand new WR corps and this athlete playing QB that doesn't fit the system and vice versa (system doesn't fit him).  I am not buying that the OC will try to run K. Tate more this year by design and that the reason he didn't run much last year was a bad ankle.  He was healthy enough to play most of the season.  I think that's a BS promise to the fans & media.  Even if he runs a little more, it won't be near as much as the Rich Rod offense.  Mazzone's offseason quote was that he's still learning to play QB.  ....That doesn't sound like adopting the system to fit his QB's athletic abilities.  And now they lose their top 4 WRs.  Could be interesting.
If this gets real ugly, the new top FR WR projected to start did go to HS with the new highly rated true FR QB - wouldn't shock me at all if late in the season that they're both on the field developing together as the future of this offense.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by LoveCFB1_:

Thoughts on OHIO over 7.5 wins? I see them competing for the MAC Championship game this year


5 minutes of review only and I'd say slight lean Over.  Then I check the line and see that the juice reflects that already.  Looks about right.  I'll be passing on this RSW total myself.  If forced to make a play, I would go Over, but that looks like an uphill battle the way the schedule sets up.  You need 2-2 non-conf and 6-2 in MAC play (6-2 should be pretty darn doable this year).  If 1-3 non-conf, then 7-1 is tough.  Despite all of Solich's recent success at OU he never finds a way to go 7-1 in conf play, but the MAC East is really down this year.  You might be sweating this one out if they're 3-3 to start the year.  If they get to 6-4 you should be in business with BGSU and Akron to finish, but both are road games, so you never know.  I could actually see them sweeping at Buffalo and vs. NIU in back to back weeks mid-season.  Both are revenge spots as OU was unmotived vs. Buffalo last year based on the circumstances at the time and OU lost a close one at NIU last year.  New staff for NIU and a home game this year.  If you think OU sweeps those two games, then maybe pull the string on this one.  Still an uphill battle to me.  Not a slam dunk IMO.
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