Colorado +4.5 also +158 ML
Cincy +7
Cal+3
N.Car +3
N.Wesrn +6
Temple -1
Purdue-16.5
Texas AM -21.5
Unders:
Washington 52.5
Arizona 56
Lou Laf 49
Purdue 50.5
Wake F 52
Minny 45
C.Fla 53.5
W.Ky 61
Kansas 51
Virginia 57.5
Mary 60.5
Mich State 49.5
SJose St 51
Rutgers 46.5
Iowa St 49.5
Syracuse 50.5
Miami F 50.5
Clemson 57.5
Colorado +4.5 also +158 ML
Cincy +7
Cal+3
N.Car +3
N.Wesrn +6
Temple -1
Purdue-16.5
Texas AM -21.5
Miami FL +112
Unders:
Washington 52.5
Arizona 56
Lou Laf 49
Purdue 50.5
Wake F 52
Minny 45
C.Fla 53.5
W.Ky 61
Kansas 51
Virginia 57.5
Mary 60.5
Mich State 49.5
SJose St 51
Rutgers 46.5
Iowa St 49.5
Syracuse 50.5
Miami F 50.5
Clemson 57.5
@Boisestateand8
I understand that revenge angle but not much of a NCST favorite team and or ECU as dogs.
ECU was one of the worst teams a few years back and NC St had a great season 2 years ago.
No data on this game so I pass. I stick with what I have the unders are dominate and the Miami night dog
Colorado +4.5 also +158 ML
Kansas St-3.5
I think zip St lost too much production on offense and their D might continue to have issues
Cincy +7
Cal+3
N.Car +3
N.Wesrn +6
Temple -1
Purdue-16.5
Texas AM -21.5
Miami FL +112
Unders:
Washington 52.5
Arizona 56
Lou Laf 49
Purdue 50.5
Wake F 52
Minny 45
C.Fla 53.5
W.Ky 61
Kansas 51
Virginia 57.5
Mary 60.5
Mich State 49.5
SJose St 51
Rutgers 46.5
Iowa St 49.5
Syracuse 50.5
Miami F 50.5
Clemson 57.5
I saw that, but Dave Doeren is 10-0 SU, 6-1 ATS at home in season openers, and he's off a losing season thanks to the bowl loss. The brawl I mentioned was initiated by an ECU player. Big advantage in returning production for the Wolfpack, and although Pirates HC Blake Harrell led the Pirates to a 5-1 finish a year ago after taking over for Mike Houston, none of those wins came against a team that finished with a winning record. Like I said previously, it's just a lean at this point. I tend to tread lightly in Week One.
@Boisestateand8
Thx for the extra info on this
ECU can be a good dog but had some terrible seasons too.
With NIL I can’t follow all these teams but starting week 5, I will have the data that makes me successful.
My data from previous scores.
Top 25 rankings and non ranked favorites
next opponent and next line
Ats streaks
over streaks
ive got a bunch of stuff to plug in and get outputs on them I can analyze and watch consensus and line moves.
Before week 5 it’s a combo of current season and previous season regression.
I hope to see your games early so I can dig in. We do different a lot because I get a lot of data from dogs.
Best wishes on your season. You deserve a nice following on here.
I'm on board with your Colorado pick. Deion is 4-0 as a home dog, and Ga. Tech is no bargain as chalk, home or away. Also a long road trip for the Yellowjackets, who will be playing in unaccustomed to altitude.
Hello RK.
I listed my top bets. Hope you noticed those.
I am playing them all and submitted my action.
The totals: none are better than the other. These have hit at a very nice level the past seasons. The unders are extremely dominate in week one and I have a couple of groups that excel.
Don’t play em if it’s too much or if you like any of them select those.
Just to restate best bets
Colorado +4
Miami FL +2.5 (current line) the lines I got are stale and expired so I try to stay current without wasting my time looking up any moves. You see all the plays so that would be annoying to update.
Anyways best wishes
@Boisestateand8
Yea you might have the right angle but to me I’d rather isolate bad favorite teams as a dog after a loss gone done extra points that I don’t need.
Im not a favorite guy so some of the teams and points you make in the favorites you introduce I’m not congruent with.
so many games to get a hold of so I have to pin point what makes me successful.
Dogs
unders
dogs that are favorites in the near future
fading the bottom of the top 25 can be fruitful.
don’t touch the top 10
don’t touch excellent teams outside the top 25 that dominate and are favorites every week, but within that there could be a few cases every season.
My best advice :
teams that meander back and forth favorite then dog. Over performances, big failures
After a team has a huge over performance or huge disappointment a few things happen.
1.) perception and better emotion influences lines and book makers adjustment to the lines.
2.) a lines maker can over adjust a line because if the team covered a few in a row (makes them consistent) then add in a dominate game that increases the spread as well. If such team has a big game ahead that can create a lack of focus.
this is a perfect scenario. Consistency of the team.
One good example of the was the Indiana game vs.Michigan game last season. Favorite covers 8 in a row, destroys the last line by 29 points. Is a favorite again and the next matchup will be an obvious dog to Ohio State. Indiana won but broke their cover streak. The looming dog situation is a big clue and factor in data.
The other things involved is a team has a tendency to elevate so far.
Georgia Tech elevated to a close loss to Georgia last season. That impacted the bowl line and that was a loss. People still remember that and I’m quite sure that game is still impacting this weeks line. Yes even after an offseason the lines maker can tag a team because of perception.
Colorado may have lost 2 highly productive players but if you watch this game, it’s going to be quite a CU Show.
Notre Dame doesn’t have a good history in top 25 road matchups and off the incredible season. Carson Beck ? Who knows. He can excel and also look bad. The consensus is ask and the line is dropping.
Then add to this is the isolated Sunday night week 1 game? If I lose this the books will take a hard beating. A lot if the easy money win on the games this week will be bet on this game. The other things involved is how many open parlay tickets will depend on such a game highly in demand?
I’ve seen sportsbooks on Sunday night in week 1. There’s a lot of dead tickets in the floor. It’s very quiet most often. Here is the data language and past results
week=1 and day=Sunday and F and line>-8 and season>2006 and total>38
3-13 ATS and 5-11 straight up. Rarely a favorite.
The Sunday night week 1 dog is a behemoth target for my betting. Every season. Even if I lost one I would smile because I know the book got spanked too.
This is a huge profit maker for shops. It’s not a normal game for them. I’m certain they count on these games.
Kansas St -3 current line
week=1 and F and site=neutral and season>2004 and rank!=None and o:rank!=None and total<65
a week 1 ranked favorite after the 2004 season playing another ranked team on a neutral site as long as the total is less than 65 ( the higher the total usually means their opponent can also score and make a (comeback, back door)
23-6-1 ATS and 25-5 straight up.
The books don’t need this game. They got all week to make this game up if it’s lopsided wagering. In this case it’s not
Iowa State addressed some run defense issues from last year. Tgat will help them Dillion Edward’s can be a jitter bug out there and a real problem. To a new revamped but better defense he still can light any team up.
Iowa state lost a lot of WR production. That’s a concern.
The very strong data and off season player loss for Iowa State puts me on the Favorite
K State -3
Established in 1995,
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