NCAA Week Four Ponderings

FINALLY a winning week! 6-4 the last TWO weeks after stumbling out of the gate in Week One (0-3).

Thursday, Sept. 18th

Rice -2' at CHARLOTTE - The road team has won the last three meetings, including Charlotte's 21-20 win last year as a 4' point dog. The Owls have gone to an option based offense and should be able to run for a few here. The 49ers are -7 in net turnovers after just three games.

Friday, Sept. 19th

Iowa -2' at RUTGERS - The Scarlet Knights always seem to start fast (3-0 now for the fifth straight year), then they get the fizzies when conference play starts. The Hawkeyes have won the last two meetings by a combined score of 49-10, but this game has a different feel to it. Greg Schiano has Rutgers on the upswing, with bowl appearances the last two years, and the Knights were 5-1-1 as a dog last season.

Saturday, Sept. 20th - early games

Unlv -2' at MIAMI-OH - Amazing stat of the week: The Rebels are on a 20-1 ATS run on the road vs. non conference opponents, all as an underdog except for their Week One win over Sam Houston. They face a long road trip and an early start time in this one though, crossing three time zones.

CLEMSON -17' vs. Syracuse - The Tiger Paw is off to a disappointing start (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS), and can't afford another conference loss. The Orange have covered their last three in Death Valley, and it's hard to trust Clemson laying this many, until they start looking like Clemson again.

Arkansas -7 at MEMPHIS - Frustrating loss for the Hogs last week at Ole Miss. They finished with more total yards and outrushed the Rebels, 217 yards (6 YPR) to 118 (3 YPR), but turned the ball over at the Ole Miss 24 yard line with two minutes left, and lost, 41-35. It was a winner if you had +6' or better, but if you were a dumbass like me and waited too long to bet it, it was a stone cold loser. They better shake this loss off in a hurry though because Memphis won't be an easy out. The Tigers are 43-6 at home since 2017, and a win here would put them in the catbird's seat for the G5 playoff berth. The Razorbacks have a home game with Notre Dame on deck.

TCU -7 vs. Smu - The Horned Frogs look to avenge a 66-42 blowout loss at SMU a year ago, a game in which they had 105 more total yards but committed five turnovers. The Mustangs are off a double overtime loss at home to Baylor, and a lackadaisical win at FBS newcomer Missouri St. last week, and will have their hands full here. TCU's 48-14 blowout win at North Carolina in Week One still resonates.

UTAH -3' vs. Texas Tech - This is the first big test for both teams and the first road game for the Red Raiders, who are 6-10 away under HC Joey McGuire. The Utes we're on a 32-2 run at home before the wheels came off last year, in a rare losing season for Kyle Whittingham, just his third in 20 years. They added eight new backs and receivers, as well as New Mexico transfer QB Devon Dampier, to jump-start their offense. So far so good, and Utah ALWAYS plays tough defense.

TCU should smash. I believe they are offensively better than Baylor. Perfect revenge spot.

Miami Ohio lost everyone and are not very good, but it is a far travel.

Clemson wins, but do they cover?

Charlotte has a new QB and he threw 5 TD's last week. Have they found themselves after their first win?

Memphis is the upset special for the week on many podcasts. They have been blistering people.

Rutgers defense is terrible. Iowa is terrible offensively. Tough call.

Utah wins at home, but Tech will be ready.

Not dumping on your picks. I truly appreciate your posts. Just adding what I've seen/learned this week.

Good luck!

Utah and Texas Tech 

Nice job man, appreciate your write ups each week and glad youre on the winning side now. It worries me that it seems a lot of people like Iowa, TCU, and Utah. I played Utah anyway though.

@River_fish

All opinions are welcome.

Charlotte can't run and they can't stop the run, which is a dangerous combination when playing an option team. Rice SHOULD be able to dominate time of possession in this one. 

As for Rutgers, this is Greg Schiano's best team since he's been back. I know they had their hands full with Ohio in Week One, but the Bobcats aren't bad, and they're the defending MAC champions. I wouldn't be shocked at an upset under the Friday night lights. 

 I haven't made any official plays as of yet. Just pondering at this point. 

@Yanasaur

 I haven't looked yet to see what the general consensus is on the forum for these games. I like doing my own research and then seeing how it lines up with what others are seeing. I'll be digging into the Saturday afternoon games later tonight. Thanks for chiming in. 

@Boisestateand8

 Great writeups & info can’t trust klemson and leaning UNLV and Utah, hopefully rice can play keep away like army and navy and pull away to win going away , the owls 31–16 

@ULLafayettekid

Yeah, the Owls look like the play. Thanks for stopping by. BOL 

@Boisestateand8

 
I took Clemson -9.5 first half and plan to live bet the game. 
I went pretty big on Arky -7. Might be a sucker bet because it looks too easy to take the Hogs.

i went big on TTU. 

BOL

@jp1lsu

 Good luck with your plays! 

Saturday afternoon games

OREGON -35' vs. Oregon St. - This is the largest point spread in the history of the Civil War, and it certainly seems to be warranted. The Beavs are horrible. There's nothing the Ducks would like better than to beat the brakes off their arch rival, but they have a massive game in Happy Valley next week, and if they get up by four or five TDs by halftime they may call off the dogs.

OKLAHOMA -6' vs. Auburn - It's Oklahoma's Homecoming game, and there's nothing Auburn would like better than to ruin it. Last season the Sooners beat the Tigers, 27-21, on the Plains, despite being outgained by 191 total yards and having just 11 first downs. But they got a pick six and scored 17 points in the last 8:32 to put it away. QB Jackson Arnold is the wild card in this one, as he returns to Norman to face his old team with a huge chip on his shoulder, after being benched by Brent Venables. No doubt he's had this game circled on his calendar.

OLE MISS -11' vs. Tulane - Fun fact: Tulane was one of the charter members of the SEC in 1933 and left the conference in 1966. This is the 72nd meeting between two old rivals, and the green guys have lost 11 straight meetings and are on a 0-14 run vs. SEC teams, with six straight ATS losses. QB Austin Simmons is expected to be back for the Rebels, but backup Trinidad Chambliss has played well in his absence, and is putting up better numbers. Hmmm.

NOTRE DAME -24' vs. Purdue - The Irish are 0-2, and their playoff hopes are on life support. They simply can't afford another loss. The Boilermakers are much improved under HC Barry Odom. Last week they committed three turnovers and were only outgained by 95 yards in a 33-17 home loss to USC. If they clean things up in this one they could hang with the Irish.

Michigan -2' at NEBRASKA - The Cornhuskers haven't beaten a ranked team since 2016, losing 27 straight. But this is HC Matt Rhule's third year with the team, and if his third year history at previous stops (Temple and Baylor ) are any indication, this could be a big year for Big Red, especially if they pull off a win here. Wolverines HC Sherrone Moore is serving a suspension in this one, and true frosh QB Bryce Underwood is making his second road start, after struggling in his FIRST road start at Oklahoma two weeks ago (9 of 24 for 142 yards).

DUKE -3 vs. Nc State - The Wolfpack look to turn the tables on the Blue Devils, after 24-3 and 29-19 losses the last two years. They'll have two extra days to prep for this one having played last Thursday night. The 'Pack haven't been a dominant team thus far, but they've won the fourth quarter in all three games to start out 3-0. Duke is -6 in net turnovers and had special teams miscues in last week's loss at Tulane. The wrong team may be favored here.

FIU -6 vs. Delaware - The Panthers ended a streak of seven straight beatdowns vs. FAU with a 38-28 win over their rivals, despite being outgained by 78 yards. They better be ready for the Blue Hens, who are off a 44-41 upset win at home over UConn. 

@usikbasterd

Saturday evening games

MISSOURI -10 vs. South Carolina - The Gamecocks may or may not have QB LaNorris Sellers back this week (concussion), but whether he plays or not this team is a far cry from last year's edition, while Mizzou has looked unstoppable three games into the season. Their biggest win was at home two weeks ago, when they rallied from 21-6 down to race past Kansas, 42-31, outgaining the Jayhawks by a whopping 341 yards and outrushing them, 261 yards (5.6 YPR) to 31 (1.7)!!! QB Beau Pribula, a transfer from Penn St., went 30 of 39 for 334 yards and three TDs in that game, and for the season has completed 76.4% of his passes for 791 yards with seven TDs and one interception. The Tigers have covered six straight in this series, and are looking to atone for last season's 34-30 loss at South Carolina. The 'Cocks have scored three TDs on punt returns and also had a pick six in their first three games They may need some more of that good fortune in this one.

Boise St. -10 at AIR FORCE - This is the last scheduled game between these two, before Boise heads to the new PAC 12 next year. The Broncos have won six of the last seven meetings (5-1-1), and should have some success against a defense that gave up 469 yards at Utah St. last week in a 49-30 rout.

MIAMI-FL -7' vs. Florida - The 'Canes clobbered the Gators last season in the Swamp, 41-17, with 268 more total yards, but based on the results of the past two weeks there's no value in this line. Florida HC Billy Napier is fighting for his job, and he's 7-2 SU, 7-1-1 ATS in his career when he has a losing record. Last week they outgained LSU by 50 yards, but DJ Lagway threw five picks in a 20-10 loss.

Washington -19' at WASHINGTON ST. - This is the biggest spread in this rivalry since 2009, but it's hard to find any reason to back the Cougars after their debacle at North Texas last week, where they lost 59-10. The Huskies look to avenge last season's 24-19 loss in Seattle.

California -12' at SAN DIEGO ST. - The Aztecs lost to that same Cougars team, 36-13, in Pullman two weeks ago, and were humbled by the Golden Bears in Berkeley last season, 31-10. This game looks to be more of the same. With Bryan Harsin as his new OC, this is Justin Wilcox's best team at Cal. Frosh QB Jaron-Keane Sagapolutele is completing nearly 67% of his passes for 772 yards, six TDs and just one interception in leading the Bears to a 3-0 start.

Good stuff again

GL

Appreciate the fine details Boise 

 Its real community thinking 

@mjm1012

@Last2thirst

Thanks gents! Best of luck this week! 

 Good luck this week Boise. I appreciate your work.

@Leroy11

Definitely value your ponderings.. may I request you ponder the BYU/ECU game? I'm really wanting to take ECU ML

@PunaniPatrol

 BYU hasn't really been tested yet, with two easy wins over FCS Portland St. and Stanford, in Provo. They're off a bye, so they've had two weeks to prepare for their first road trip. The Pirates gave NC State all they wanted in Week One on the road, crushed FCS Campbell and coasted past a bad Coastal Carolina team on the road last week. This is clearly the biggest challenge for both teams thus far. I'm leaning ECU ever so slightly, but they aren't on my playlist. BOL! I hope it hits for you if you play it. 

what’s your top 3?

@Quaffer

 That's Train's thing. I won't play anything until the day the games go off. 

Friday update 

Iowa -2' at RUTGERS - This line is holding steady, but over 70% of the public money is on the Scarlet Knights, and I hate backing public dogs. Still, this dog might have some bite to it. Might play it if it goes to +3. +3' is wishful thinking.

No interest in the other game tonight. More later.

Appreciate the write-ups Boise! BOL!