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Posted: #26
AMD ...good move on those who got VT +14.5 and to those whose book was set at +14 and took the 'hook' (0.5pt) if you have any knowledge whatsoever in regards to betting football you realize real quick how valuable a half-point really is! do your homework, in college football alone. last season 128 GAMES (and counting) WERE DECIDED by a half-point WIN (coming off a perspective PUSH)...do the math and figure it out. since this is a college football forum, we won't even talk the significance that a half-point makes when it comes to NFL wagering. enjoy tonights matchup
 
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Posted: #27
Good luck AMD...
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by Duderonomy:


Quote Originally Posted by loy_nas:


What is the likelihood it'll be a 14 point game?

Not sure why you can't just do the math for yourself... if the odds of covering a spread of 14 are right around 50%, the game would have to land on 14 around 1 in 25 times for it to be worth buying the half point.  So the question is, if this game were played 25 times, would it land on 14 at least once?  I'm thinking yes...

It really isn't a question of math... it's a question of this: "would you rather risk slightly less, and be satisfied with a push in that scenario; or pay a little more to ensure that you still get a win in that scenario?
There's no debate to this asseeement; only a moron would accept a PUSH when it could be avoided by a simple half-point hook (add 5%)....
 
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Posted: #29
assessment
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

There's no debate to this asseeement; only a moron would accept a PUSH when it could be avoided by a simple half-point hook (add 5%)....

10%.
 
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Posted: #31
-110 (10% VIG) -115 (5% 0.5pt) this all depends on the book, and the set price,
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

-110 (10% VIG) -115 (5% 0.5pt) this all depends on the book, and the set price,
10/11 odds or -110  is mathematically impossible to be 10% VIG. Matter of fact if you win 50% of your bets the VIG @-110 is 4.55%. If you win 70% pf your bets the vig is only 6.36%, If you win 99% of your bets it's 9%. Just sayin'
The pen is mightier than the pigs
 
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Posted: #33
I comprehend what your saying, and your correct, unfortunately I was explaining the other side of the coin, I believe my approach became rather confusing when I put it down on paper, appreciate the stats (on target) and the heads up commentary
 
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Posted: #34
G L  
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by pappadoc:

BOL AMD

Nice Pappa! 1 post! 
 
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Posted: #36
Good luck amd!
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by loy_nas:

It's cool. I'm just checking off names right now.

Why would you be checking off names
 
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Posted: #38
Thorpe if you don't mind me asking what breed is that boy. I had a 17yr old american staffie that passed this march looks just like him.
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86:

It's at 14 on my book, im wondering if it goes up so I don't have to buy the half or 15. I know what side Im on though

Don't count on it.... lines dropped at my book to 13.5 already. 

 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by lakerfan4life28:

I'm on VA tech as well, but i think this line will continue to go up until game time. The public loves Ohio St. and the media is pretty much crowning them National Champs. I wouldn't be shocked if the line was 15.5 by game time. GL to everyone.


 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by loy_nas:

What's the point of buying 0.5 point to make it 14.5, other than giving me the straight forward answer that it is a half point higher than 14.

Waste of money if you ask me.


Because then if VATech were to lose by 14, you would cover
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by amd:


The public doesn't move lines.

In all actuality the public does move lines because the books responsibility is to keep both sides 50/50 to make money on the juice period. 
 
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Posted: #43
Regardless amd, like the pick VT +14 1/2 
 
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Posted: #44
osu is the defending nc and the preseason #1 team in the country. my books got VT at +13.5 the moment I made this comments. factor in the osu qb situation + people will also considering last year result between the two teams. it's OSU or no bet. gl amd.
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by W8LIFTER:


In all actuality the public does move lines because the books responsibility is to keep both sides 50/50 to make money on the juice period. 

Regarding the type of movement he was referring to, it's sharp money that moves that line. No way would the public move a line 1.5 points in 24 hours. It would take an enormous volume of wagers for the public to sway a line even a half point, let alone, 1.5.
 
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Posted: #46
 
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Posted: #47
Read post #2 by jwheels and #3 by amd. They were talking about buying half point.

It's okay, I get how you guys think.
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by loy_nas:

Read post #2 by jwheels and #3 by amd. They were talking about buying half point.

It's okay, I get how you guys think.

I never talked about buying a half. I said I was comfortable with my wager at 14.5. 
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by amd:


Regarding the type of movement he was referring to, it's sharp money that moves that line. No way would the public move a line 1.5 points in 24 hours. It would take an enormous volume of wagers for the public to sway a line even a half point, let alone, 1.5.


 
 
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