L2Thirst Week 7

BEST TEAMS /PLAYOFF SETUP - as I see it looking ahead

Old King Reigns #1 = BUCKEYES 

-they equal what Oregon did....jetlag and all like the Ducks!

-that win by the Ducks is paling now given the implosion on defense by Penn St. (my question is, who does the committee rate as the best 2 loss team now? Notre Dame or Penn St.? One of those two are out completely now!)

#2. OREGON

--------------------------------Next 2 are what the Committee would choose if the season ended most likely , but they are not the 3rd and 4th best teams

3. Miami ....impressive, but not BIG 10 impressive

4. Texas Tech ...impressive road win again

---------------In the Playoff--------(some from #9 - 12 fit due to conference inclusion)

5. Ole Miss

6. Indiana

7. Alabama

8. Oklahoma

9. Texas AM

10. Missouri

11. Georgia Tech

12. Memphis  (best Group of 5?)

------------------- THE REST are next in line best teams/chance for playoffs

13. BYU

14. LSU

15. Michigan

16. USC

---------------------Have a chance

17. Georgia 

18. North Texas

19. UNLV

20. Utah

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These teams get plugged in as others falter above in the Top 20:

Worst Undefeated team  = Navy

Best (2 losses) Team Not in Top 20 = Notre Dame, Penn St.

Top 30 (One Loss) Teams = Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Illinois, Virginia, Nebraska, Washington, Cincy, Arizona St, Iowa St.. USF

My week:

3 - 1  ATS /Totals  (+3.5 Units)

- $100 exotic bet on Michigan Over when I saw the wide open play 

Season:

23 - 18  ATS/Totals (+4.5 Units)

Exotic betting = -$90

I saw some people blow their brains out in Week #6 ..... but I commend a lot of new posters in this season who are really starting to get a good grip and record. Nice to see 

Still miss my friend and person I look up to quite a bit every season = Wahoo  aka Mr. Classy! Hope he is ok

Like Caiifornia and Fresno in these late games 

Week 7 Key Games for Playoffs:

USF @ North Texas << if USF wins, they gain the #2 position in Group of 5 for a Playoff Seat.... depending on what Memphis does going forward 

- if N.Texas wins fairly convincingly, they are in the conversation for a Playoff

Alabama @ Missouri - if Bama beats another undefeated team, they can solidify a strong foothold in the Top 8 seeds for the Playoffs..... Missouri wins, they move into the Top 12 (they need a signature win)

Indiana @ Oregon - Indiana could keep themselves in consideration if they still lose but it is going to have to be a close game

Georgia @ Auburn - tricky game for the 'Dogs > any loss, you have to pull Georgia out of the Playoff picture until they beat a top 12 team later in the season?

Michigan @ USC - USC would be out of Playoff Picture most likely if they lose.....Michigan could backdoor if they won the rest of the way impressively including beating their biggest rivals and #1 team 

- a win for USC would put them on the edges of a Playoff but not a seat yet

BYU @ Arizona - big game for both teams as they are in the hunt for the Big 12 Conference

-BYU is obviously closet to a Playoff Seat but will have to go undefeated to get there most likely

Arizona St @ Utah - loser of this game is likely out of the BIG12 race but if a close game, even the loser would be highly considered especially if TTECH finishes undefeated

Play #1 - North Texas -1.5 x 1U >> will add more Units if line swings down or to other side

-N. Texas defense has been improving all year

- their secondary is impressive but I wonder it their high ranking has to do with the fact that they played Army who didn't throw much on them (they are #8 /136 for passing yds against)

- this should be a close game but the NTex QB has not thrown an INT yet and USF defense is not super strong ....its good though

Play #2 - Alabama-Missouri Under 53.5 x 1U

-another gritty game of field advantage for Bama ....all four games against good teams stayed UNDER this number 

-Missouri with great defensive stats and they like running the ball

Looking for more...

7 pt Teaser HALF U each except for 1st one 

Oregon -2.5 with ECU +14.5 with North Texas +5.5 

Oregon -2.5 with BWGr +15.5 with UNLV +0.5

Oregon -2.5 with Colorado +11.5 with TexAM -1.5 

Oregon -2.5 with Oklahoma Under 49.5 with NW +29.5 

Play #3 - USC -Michigan OVER 54.5 x 1U

-don't think Haynes will be stopped and think Maiaeva can get the ball out to his receivers fairly quickly and their run game will keep Michigan honest .....think Michigan - Nebraska game...back and forth scoring all game 

That's it for now...got these in quickly

Nice work and information as usual 

Leaning Missouri +3.5 but not sure yet. The main reason I like the Tigers is because they haven't had a road game yet which is nuts. And off a bye. And, probably some revenge after losing to them last year 0-35. You couldn't ask for a better situation to back a home dog...

But....man does Bama look like they are coming into their own. They have faced a schedule from hell, and will continue to throughout the rest of the season. Ty Simpson looks stellar since week 1, when FSU played the game of their lives against em.

I want to back Missouri but I don't know how good they really are. Last year all their losses(3) came vs ranked teams. This year they haven't played a ranked team yet, and Bama feels like they are improving every week. And vs stout competition. 

GL 

Some thoughts on the lines/Totals

-USF/NTexas getting a bit high at 67.5 (climbing)?? < I expect to see some defense on some drives .... look what USF was able to accomplish on Florida (Lagway was coming off only 4 weeks of training camp after injury stalled his spring)..... who would have run the ball at USF to set up the pass

-does NTEX run away to a quick 1-2 score lead and then USF tries to chase them trying to score every drive?

This line is on watch

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Rutgers was off last week....Washington played Ohio St the weekend when Rutgers played Ohio....then Huskies came east and now have to fly back 

-is 10.5 too many points vs this rabid offense? Will Washington be dulled from all of their travel?

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Indiana @ Oregon ....why is this line coming down when we saw how Indiana played at Iowa on the road....their defense bailed them out in the second half. That won't be the case here trying to contain this high powered offense which is by far the best offense their defense will have seen so far and are jetlagged 

-the betting is thinking its going to be a one score game? I can see Ducks pulling ahead at times in this game

-I took the 7pt teaser to get -2.5 which I think is gold

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Colorado is playing pretty well for Sanders....in most of their games until the 4th Q and I notice Cyclones are not as formidable on the road.... 

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NC St is a decent balanced team..... how can the Irish constantly cover 3+ TD lines? Looking into this one

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Do we stick a fork in Kansas St? I don't think Johnson can hang with Hoover and their offense trading scores 

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Temple getting +8.5 ....might have to look into how Navy does after playing a military team the game after 

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Georgia- Auburn 46.5 total ...does that seem low? Auburn it seems has been on the road for a long time and they have some players and this is not your pre-pandemic Georgia typical defense....them and the Vols looked really loose and why would Georgia all of a sudden think its a good idea to play tight ball games when Gunnar can move the football with some good receiver talent

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S.Carolina - LSU 44.5 and a -10 line.... S.Carolina defense not like it was last year ...does LSU put up some big points for a change? They've always been an explosive team off of a break and its a high speed team

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BYU @ Zona

- I like this Zona team and BYU been moving around a lot lately..... I lean the dog here before I inspect

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Arizona St/Utah - this one feels like a defensive battle ....49 ....some midfield drives stalled and punts

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Just some thoughts before I do  some DD on some of these...

Hey Sac...some great thoughts.   I know you watch baseball...as we did a lot of MLB in that forum.....man, the BLUE JAYS look like monsters!! Would love a Brewers - Jays WS

I think DeBoer has hit a 'appreciate what you've got ' button on his Bama players....can really see that in their play and they seem more together. Notice I have them rated as high as 7th? SP+ has had Bama rated 4-7th best offense and defense thoughout much of the season so ......you can see it recently and against Georgia going into their homefield 

I am considering pounding on Alabama -3 pretty hard ..... I think last year left a bad taste in their mouths and how they responded after the loss to FSU is showing that 

My reason is, Missouri would be satisfied with a loss to a top team like Bama if they played them tight.....Simpson is quite impressive to me and they have some excellent playcalling this year (FSU game aside)

@Last2thirst

 I wouldn't be running to the window to bet on Bama. I failed to mention that they have Tennessee on deck, a team they lost to last year. Classic sandwich spot.

The look ahead line was 6.5, opened today at 4.5. It's now at 3.5, so early $ is all over Missouri, fwiw.

At 3 I wouldn't blame you for trying Bama. I think we are in agreement on how good they really are.

It's just that spots like this are so fuckin hard for teams to handle, even the really good ones. I mean they just beat Georgia and a pretty good(under rated) Vandy team. I'm telling you that Missouri is going to bring hell with them to the football field this Saturday. How Bama handles it will be telling. 

@Last2thirst

 LSU catches my eye in your analysis… yes… this week they put up points.     North Texas has impressed me… so has s Florida.    Memphis. I watched Arkansas game.. ark was dominating… then looked like they were uncoached… which they have looked for years.  Memphis is good though … but Arkansas blew game.   Enjoy your reading. I disagree with you on vandy … they are legit in my opinion … they went toe to to with bama at bama… not much difference in my opinion… had game been at Nashville … ?   

Oregon scares me 

Good thread….lets gooo

great write up

Good luck L2T.  

This guy must live in Big 10 delusional land…what a wacky rankings

Good post @Mskeets..... yes I like Vandy but Bama is on a whole new level when they are free and easy with high motivation.....on a neutral field to make the Playoffs or a major  bowl, I think Vandy could give them a game but not beat them

Thanks for the compliment ...this year is testing a lot of people but its also uncovering some past tendencies that are not working. I find with gambling you have to adapt. 

This song may calm you..... one of my youth bands and I actually spend a couple days with them partying on the beach back in 87' before they got real real big 

Not their best song but its quirky like them 

Scared - Tragically Hip 

UGA 

JJ 

D-Town 

Welcome to my 'Gangland of Big 10'  and any other conference that impresses @VolPlay.......SEC is on the slide  son ....hell, even ACC's best would beat any SEC team!!

By the way...heard this song on my way home....how did I miss this shit....holy cow ....sound like Motorhead/Judas Priest and some others rolled into one ....great song 

KILLER!!!

"No easy come, no easy gooooooooo!! ....not too fast....not  too slow!!

" if you mess with  fire, you'll get yourself burned " 

@Last2thirst

 You make no sense…there are 4 Big Ten teams every year with a prayer, 1-2 ACC teams, 1 Big 12 team and then about 10 or so Sec teams that can contend with most playoff caliber teams…try to keep up and enjoy those mostly high spread non competitive games in the lesser conferences…if you think winning a national title off the back of 8-9 or so cake walk games to be fresh for playoffs is fun..then enjoy

I'll follow you, how's that?  

Enjoy the season and music... tune out the noise!

The rankings on post #1 is set up for WHAT IF the committee picked today...... and the Playoffs start tomorrow

No SEC in the top 4 ...only Oklahoma beat the at best 3rd best Big 10 team..... that's it.....hell, Bama could not beat an ACC team on the road so, Ole Miss stays #4 until they beat a strong team out of their conference 

TTECH ....not getting respect but you watch where they end up (undefeated and Top 4 seed) Go watch the Utah game and I axe then, which SEC team will go into Utah's homefield this year and do that as a winless team?  It was pure and utter domination  at all facets of the match.

Found a TOTAL I like to go Under:

Play #4  Hawaii/Utah St Under 58 x 1U and will raise bet if it hits 58.5 or higher

-Barnes for U-St is only around 40% chance of playing and he poses a threat with both arm and legs 

-Conover the #2 is a pocket passer.... Hawaii knows how to pressure a QB decently (rank 54th) and are a good defense against run or pass

-Hawaii- Air Force game blew up in 4th Q with 41 pts scored but at home, they are much tighter....this total has been inflated in my opinion

I can see a 31 - 27 game most likely but expect more like 28-24 /30-27 

-Utah St is pretty good vs pass and Hawaii becoming a throwing team in mid season

@Volplaya8

 Simply not true

@River_fish

 You are lying to yourself if you think that’s not the case…enjoy