L2Thirst Week 6 Already

Hey Sac, been busy, how you been?  I am working on my soccer patterns tonight and football angles.

Jays in the ALS Series. I think they are going to be a scrappy team to put to bed and no pitching is too tough for this team as I have watched them find ways to turn on a 99mph high strike into the stands all year in situations where they need it

What do you like this week?

South Florida is laying so many points it’s out of their range. I do t like betting Charlotte and overlook them so many weeks because they don’t get this line vs a team like s Florida.  

s Florida is a dog team not a -27 team.  If I lose fine but I know I had the stronger chance. 

these college teams need so talent at all positions to cover -27.  Unless the dog has a bad game of costly mistakes the dog should be fine.  

I have a modest record because I can’t stay away from favorites this season.  If I went back and looked at my record I would be north of 55% on my dog picks.  

Most of my weeks action is posted.  now I wait for better lines and be patient.  

You have a lot of work to do.  Get busy do you can get  hot again

Hey Spottie,

I don't need to do anything except what I want especially now and ya, part time work that is lucrative and I enjoy is starting to get in the way 2-3 days a week....I can't turn down $300 a day! It funds my betting fun...haha

Last year I had a very successful season by refining the number of plays so I am moving toward that. The difference this year is, I am charting everything this year and maybe next, so I get some 'usual' data flow

Good luck L2T.  

Michigan Total is climbing? > up to 42.5 and ATS also, now -17 

If you saw Michigan fly around on defense against Raiola, you would have been impressed, but the final score result was not typical. Raiola has come a long way from his first season

There is no Raiola and playmakers on the Wisky team. 

How did Michigan score so much? 280+ yds on the ground but now, they face the #1 run defense and they won't get Wisky answers on their drives like Huskers did. Even still, did I rush on my bet placing?

Wisky is 74th vs the pass

Michigan is 54th 

Wisconsin now #2 vs run 

Michigan now #8

Lets see where this total goes for the week

@Last2thirst

 I wanted to reflect on how comedy is rolled out.  Seems like our comedy is lacking so that is congruent.  

@Last2thirst

 Looking at BYU. Tough game on Friday night for the Mountaineers with the long travel. But byu has kind of played no one yet. The line is that high for a reason and I usually don't like playing thur or fri games.

One that sticks out is Louisville is -7. Unranked fav vs ranked Virginia coming off what looked like their super bowl win vs fsu...

You have a good eye Sac  but make sure you line up their matchups OFF strength vs DEF strength

I guarantee you, Vegas sees a lot of people fishing for pts when some good faves are to be had. I tend to go with faves but don't mind taking pts in about 1/3 of my plays 

I am going to limit myself to 1 side and 1 more Total if I can find the right mojo....... it has to hit me square in the eyes when I do my matchup analytics

I definitely know I will be doing a TEASER flight soon with 2 teams that I will separate and taking pts +7 more .....

The lines are brewing nicely so gonna watch and be patient

Michigan Line keeps going up higher > 43.5 (+2 from what I bought)

In game, I might buy 41.5 or if a slow first Q Over a total like 37.5 ....... right now to buy this out, it would cost me about $80 because its a 3U play and OVER 41.5 is at 1.70 on Bet365

Holding the line and gonna watch it instead and decide in-game maybe

@Last2thirst

 I think Michigan is going to score some points. After a bye week they are going to get some guys back from injury. Wisconsin is a bad loss or two away from losing any kind of motivation.

You are correct in worrying about Michigan scoring ..... the question is, how are they going to score? Will it be quick or long drive? Will they want to show what they are working on before travelling to USC to give them some tape...... << I am going on the assumption, they do not and want methodical drives for at least half of the game ....Wisky is the #1 run defense 

The defense will be chomping on the bit after 2 weeks rest! 

-Limit Wisky to 13-14 pts

-the line moving is saying that Michigan will score 28-30? They pretty much had to score 30 pts vs Nebraska and no way is Wisky's offense as good as Nebraska's

Thanks for the reminder about 2 weeks off

@Last2thirst

Try not to play against my team but taking Miss St. in a teaser seems like a solid one at +20.5 or even +21.  GL this weekend!  

@Last2thirst

FanDuel has Justice Hayes propped at 92 yards rushing right now. This is an admission that Wisconsin’s run defense ranking is fools gold. On FD, the sum of rushing yards between Michigan Qb & Rb’s = 160 yards

BINGO!! That play and Wyoming at home were my two 'secret' teaser plays but it just depends on where it ends up.....I have been busy this week raking in my soccer bets and getting caught up there and with horses too

Good call BeeRich  Thx

I like how you think FatCheeks

Some things I am looking at 730 pm games and later .... looking at matchups unit by unit now and checking results this year/past head to head

Some strong opinions:

1. Miami will not lose the FSU game because they have a better defense than FSU and have faced tougher overall

-what stands out is how poor the FSU yards against the pass and even yards against the run

2. What is the incentive for Ohio St to score 30 pts? Is this the toughest defense they have faced? 

answers: - they haven't been motivated to yet / no - but 2nd best and quite strong / Texas was best defense ....so go back to my first question now and answer that and axe yourself, will Minny score more than 13 on OSU on their field with their defense?

Play #3 - Under 44.5 x 1U  Gophers-Buckeyes  

At most Minny = 13 pts

At most OSU = 31 pts 

I believe I have a 4-6 point cushion here with a final score of 27 - 10 or 27 - 13

3.  Wrong favorite I believe in the Duke /Cali game  > will be using in my TEASERS!

-Duke has not beaten a team ranked below 50th in SP+ and Tulane they lost to at 63rd

-California beat #45 on the SP+ list and by 13 points, while playing at home.....this line is all perception based on the SDSU road game for Calif.

-Cali has the 48th best passing yds facing the 108th best secondary for yds... Duke has to face a good defense in Calif

I am saving the Mississippi St /TexAM game for a great inspection.....I really feel like taking pts based on how TexasAM performs vs a good offense and this one gave the Vols fits....TEXASAM finally got a decent performance out of their DEE but want to dig on what changed?

NMSU ML x HALF U 

-45th best pass yds at home facing the 135th best secondary for yds given up....yum yum

...seems like an easy decision

Good start to the week!

NMSU ML x HALF U  

-45th best pass yds at home facing the 135th best secondary for yds given up....yum yum

...seems like an easy decision

Other plays:

Play #3 - Under 44.5 x 1U  Gophers/Buckeyes 

Play #2 - UNDER 53.5 Washington/Maryland x 1U

Play #1 - MICHIGAN UNDER 41.5 x 3 UNITS

Its obvious, I don't like the matchupst his week to jump on something.....

congrats on the win. 

I am here to pick your brain since we are congruent with Ohio st Minny under.  Do you get any signals that Ihio state loses this game?  I total respect what they have accomplished recently but I see the stats and get a sense they are vulnerable against good defenses.  

I don’t particularly love Minny as they are much like Iowa as they cover a decent amount each season but when it cone to big time opponents they always fail.  

After 8 covers in a row dating back last seasons playoffs, I just see a soft spot nearing. Ohio State has a poor record if they fail to score 21 points so that provides an opportunity for an upset.  

They have Illinois on deck and I don’t see Illinois holding them back but Illinois can score more. 

I put a bit on Minny moneyline so I’m not wasting your time I am invested. 

points<29 and o:rank = None and line<-18 and ats streak>0

2 things I’ll address here 

1) the above query suggested and predicts Ohio state not to score big.  in the query I used Ohio states out out to be less than 29 points for their team total output. I think I can assume you are at least leaning that way.  

2) the above query I add in a line below the current -23 line to leave a buffer which also adds more results.  Lastly the ats streak and results from my findings.  ats streak>0 is a bit meaningful but not necessary.  

The results if Ohio State fails to  score 29 based upon a line of -18 the dog is 23 covers and 447 failures that’s not a typo. 
the unders in the case above are 15 overs and 257 unders. 

maybe I’m too far unrealistic in Minny winning but I think given this data

a 3 team SG Parlay of :

1)Ohio state under their team total

2) under in this game

3) Minny +23 

Seems logical. 

2 examples and Betonline allows to adjust all lines for better odds 

1) odds are +180

Minny+23.5 

Ohio S under 29.5 

Game total 44.5

2) odds are +210

Minny +23.5

Ohio S under 27.5

game under 44.5

all of these can be adjusted one I can up with us +600 when is slightly more that half of the payout for Minnesota actually winning the game +1150

3) pays 6-1 

Ohio S under 22.5

Minny +12.5

game total under 34.5 

this could be a game that’s 17-10 or something similar 

@Last2thirst

 I just wanted to share their 5 H2h. Under 43 seems low for tomorrow game.

Recent Matchups

Year Winner Score Location
2021 Michigan 38–17 Madison, WI
2020 Wisconsin 49–11 Ann Arbor, MI
2019 Wisconsin 35–14 Madison, WI
2018 Michigan 38–13 Ann Arbor, MI

Bol with all your games.