L2Thirst Week 3

What's with the cuffs?  Too many pinata parties?? What happened?

Thanks Blow 

Every year, you and I have 2-3 plays in a week where we are on the same page. For the first time, me, you and Hoo as well so hopefully we are honed in for a nice payday

Georgia lines are really wacky this year.....I honestly think if they get Gunnar trained up and a run game to compliment him, they might quietly be a dark horse and pull the rug from Texas or LSU for the SEC and a playoff

Hey thanks....I hope you rub some of that luck and record onto to mine....helluva a start for you I see. Congrats 

Hey thanks....I hope you rub some of that luck and record onto to mine....helluva a start for you I see. Congrats 

I just completed my reboot and reshuffle of rankings in SP+ after week #2 completed ......when compared to preseason rankings, I will post the highlights below. KEEP IN MIND....my analysis of 2024 final results vs the preseason rankings demonstrated that teams that improved both their OFF and DEF to a sum total of 60 ranks or higher, had a very strong winning season

-teams that improved by 30-60 total ranks on the season had a winning season and in some cases double digit wins

-teams that decreased their ranks were often losing records and a winning percentage of .400 or worse

***much improved offensive rank*** > had the biggest effect on win % for sure

Most improved teams ranked preseason 100th - 136th:

1. Temple       +46 ranks 

2. Purdue       +37 

3. Wyoming    +28

4. N.Illinois     +24

5. UAB           +24

Improved by +18 - +23 = Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico St., FAU 

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Teams ranked preseason 51st - 99th showing greatest improvement:

1. Pittsburgh   +45

2. UCF            +42

3. Navy           +39

4.  Arizona       +35

5. App State    +33

6. Vanderbilt    +29

7. N.Texas       +29

8. Maryland     +28

9. WKU           +27

10. Wake F.     +26

Find good lines to exploit on these this weekend and WEEK #4  

Who do you fade until they show better over two weeks?

1. Virginia Tech    -65 ranks dropped

2. North Carolina  -60 

3. UCLA               -57

4. Georgia South  -53

5. Coastal Car.     -42

6. Boise              -42

7. Oregon St       -41

8. Kansas St       -40

9. NC State        -40

10. Stanford       -39

Dis-honorable mention: -30 to -38 > Sam Houston, Marshall, SJSU, Arizona St, UTSA, Baylor, SMU, Clemson

AVOID ! AVOID ! AVOID !  until they get things ironed out

Interesting thing happen tonight.....NC State righted their ship (dropped -40 ranks) beat a team on the rise from preseason ranking in Wake Forest (+25 improved ranks on OFF/DEF) lost by 10 

The over achieving from 2024 

 AZST BOISE

The over achieving from before 2024 :

Ore St 

Who do I like this week? 

Georgia Southn  home favorite to Fresno big fail now a home favorite to JV St is a big difference and not much line change. 

Stanford  4 road games in a row dating back 2024 now home to BC tgat travels cross country and each week Stanford suck they get additional points until tge bad streak ends.  It ends this week in my opinion. 

Virgina Tech starting off the year playing Vandy and So Carolina ? No thanks.  Playing Old Dom this week won’t be  easy but Old Dom was at Indy +24.5 that value here is long gone.  

UCLA played Utah at only +6 and away favorites at UNLV and lost.  New Mexico isn’t good -14 will be much easier for Nico I’m him. 

Kansas St Ariznobisnt completely back from their bad 2024 yet. Tough test here and no points for a cushion. 

Coastal Car  another team getting extra points after a bad start. E. Car as road favorites since 2011 6-15 ATS and that list of team they faced are lesser or the same than Coastal.  I’ll take my chances on a close battle on 2 similar teams. 

Sources: Boston College starting cornerback Syair Torrence will not play against Stanford this week, meaning the Eagles will be down three defensive starters and both starting corners. Torrence is a sophomore who won the starting job in camp. 

You are going to really have to plug your nose on those plays @Spottie ...lets see how it turns out. I don't know if its time yet, maybe after game 4 .....to get on these. Improvement may not be an option as each year there are always a dozen or so teams that continue to spiral the full year

@Last2thirst

 Lines matter most to me.  Match ups are secondary.  

Like I said last year, I think we could be deadly if we combined both styles ...... you work on line attacking high numbers, I work on matchup ....if you fed me the prospects on Sunday night, I can get to work on it right away! Think about that going forward otherwise, we continue to do what we do ...which we will anyway but there might be the 1-2 ones that we find are super powerful if in agreement.

S

SUMMARY of Week #3 Plays:

11- 8  SIDES/TOTALS  (losing week#2)

 Exotic bets up +$100  on season (losing week#2)

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Play #1 - Georgia/Tennessee UNDER 50.5 x 2U

Play #2  Central Michigan +27 x HALF U vs Michigan

Play #3  Georgia -4.5 x HALF U

ADDING > -3.5 x 1U

Play #4 - Texas Tech -23.5 x HALF U 

Upping this now ....down to -23 x HALF U add

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Teaser 7 pts - $30 each

 Key > Arizona +8.5   with Vanderbilt +12 with:

1. Minnesota +5.5

2. Texas St +21.5

3. Pittsburgh Even

4. Houston +2  

5. CMU +34.5

6. Oklahoma - Temple Under 58.5 

7. UCONN -2.5

8. Arkansas +14

HALF U Teaser > Ole Miss Even with S. Carolina +2 with Texas Tech -16.5

HALF U > Texas -34.5  with LSU -0.5 with Calif +9.5

HALF U > Texas -34.5  with LSU -0.5 with Tulane +5.5

Glad I stayed away from early games for the most part.....plenty of inflated lines BUT they are all on the path to cover except for Buffalo 

What a power display by Michigan! ** throw my MAC team cover into the garbage** ....how badly are the Buckeyes going to destroy Ohio later?

Oklahoma might finish strongly here as well.... I was leaning Temple but never played 

I had to do a 1U OVER 62.5 on Georgia-VOls in game to claw back....I have 2U on UNDER 50.5 and my eyes tell me these two O-lines are giving time for gunslingers to fire down the field ....crazy start 

TOP TEAMS are definitely shaping into a TOP 20 that I can see: 

- how do I see this playing out?

- Penn State is the key > can finish #1 

-Oregon can slide into #1 with overcoming Penn St. and then stay there running the field to a perfect record

#1 Ohio State > control own destiny

#2 Penn St. @ Ohio St but get Ducks at home who have to navigate time zones over the next 2 weeks to fly to Pennsylvania on the 27th while Nittany Lions get to relax and prepare/ on form I think Oregon is better 

#3 Oregon - hands down best coach in Lanning with Kirby tied 

#4 LSU - only team I see who has the defense/QB combo to hang with Big 10 Top 3 

(speed, talent and maybe coaching edge rests in BIG 10 but SEC is close)

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#5 Georgia - the talent/aura/even QB is there but their defense has to get much better

#6 Miami - if they can keep an undefeated record, Top 4 is assured

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#7 Tennessee - I think they were the better team vs Georgia

#8 TexasAM  - Marcel Reed might carry his team on his back / Defense gets better, look out!

#9 Texas - Arch has to improve or the play calling (not sure which)

#10 tie Utah - game vs Texas Tech will keep them or their opponent into Top 10

#10 tie  Texas Tech - Offense usually overcomes defense, which they have but their defense is adequate

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Teams that have to push through in their Conference to get into Top 10

#11 - 20 (pick your order)

 Oklahoma, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Iowa St, Auburn, Ole Miss, TCU, Alabama, USC 

(one will drop out and Texas Tech or Utah will drop in)

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Top 25 Material /One may shock/push up:

Florida St, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Georgia Tech, California, Minnesota, Tulane, Houston, Nebraska, Memphis, Arizona. Louisville

Terrible week 1-3 (-$350)

Exotic Plays > lost $30 ....saved me from a brutal day frankly

Its really hard to pin down some teams ......Clemson, Georgia, Michigan.....with the spreads offered .....even Notre Dame. Texas AM has little defense but ND is supposed

Irish have a ridiculous run game and wtf if Freeman doing going for a 2 pt conversion when the game was tied? Weird......TEXAM comes down and scores a TD on last play / gets the convert >> wins the game

Last year I had Freeman in my top 4 coaches....not this year! Team had a lot of promise to get to the Playoffs but not now

Lines I am dying to see Week 4:

Texas Tech @ Utah

Auburn@ Oklahoma

Michigan @ Nebraska

Florida - Miami

Illiniois - Indiana