L2Thirst Week 1 Bets

I’m all about fading Piñata pitchers and Piñata defenses in football!!!

Appreciate all of your efforts, let’s go!!!

BOL!!

Love it Felix  I pic ked two mucho grande muchismo defenses for my UNDERS however 

WOW....I am seeing -3.5 only for BOISE on Bet365 to bet ingame ...right at kickoff

Boise driving the ball methodically!

Turnover and USF moving backwards on first drive.....BOISE defense getting nasty to support the Offense ....wow

Throw the Boise pick in the garbage 

So I am gonna go 2-1 ....fingers crossed

I see a smorgasbord with what is happening in games Thursday and last week:

Friday plays:

Wake F-Kennesaw Under 51 x HALF U

App St  Under 49.5 x HALF U

CMU - SJSU Under  x HALF U

Tulane UNDER 45.5 x 1U

No reason to do a write up on these if you are paying attention..... teams are not ready offensively to start the year ...for the most part and all the discipline that was drilled into them has taken hold pretty much from camp.

Last year the UNDERS between Top 134 teams went 27-15 in Week 0/1 

At least in the first 20 games or so, this total trend is probably going to be stronger once all games are complete tonight and before we head into Saturday's action.

Saturday Plays:

No comment on Tex/Ohio St.... let the experts handle one...I made plays with TEASERS already

Toledo +10 x 1 U

-Toledo is picked to win the MAC and when they are rated this high, they tend to overachieve when they play in non-Conf

-Kentucky had a down year last year and will be motivated, but not sure how 'sharp/ready' that will be with another good team to over come double digit spread

-good QB returns, Kentucky gets Calzada the start and both teams can play defense .... Toledo spanked Mississippi St 41 - 7 on the road last year in week 3 ...with a weaker rated team and same QB 

- if the total was 49.5 ....I would go under but its down to 46 ...I can see Toledo scoring around 17-20 pts and Kentucky, who knows how ready the offense is to start the year...if its like other teams, they will be live and death to score 24-28 pts.

Note: RB from Kentucky got injured ...did a transfer to Toledo

Old Dominion +24 vs Indiana x HALF U

-full credit for Cignetti igniting a good bond and discipline play last year...they had the offensive pieces and on the defense as well

-this year, I think they step back just a bit but still have a strong year 

-looking ratings, this ODU team rated higher than last year and they almost pulled off a shocker beating S.Carolina to start  the season..... YOU JUST KNOW, their 5th yr coach will have the boys playing hard and ready to go

Georgia and Marshall - I can see Marshall getting 10 pts ...maybe 13-17. Will Georgia score more than 42? I doubt it so +38.5 seems like good value.... will appear in parlays that I won't post 

Taking FSU if decide to play it ....in parlays ...waiting for +14.5/total of 49.5 can I see a 28-14 game, sure but I think it will be closer to 34 - 21 or something like that ....27 - 17.....I know what I am getting in Castellanos for FSU who will have a strong defense to not have to force him to rush or feel he needs to take over......Alabama obviously has talent anywhere but with the reserve QB with the clipboard taking over after waiting for 3 yrs, it feels like a Stetson Bennett first time on the field situation where he had flashes of good but very awkward moments too trying to do too much for Georgia.... after holding a clipboard on the sidelines for pretty much most of 2 yrs himself

That's me done after spending time with games up to before 4 pm Sat. I will look at the rest tonight and in the morning....

If you are wondering on the volume of plays..... I just have that feeling Vegas is demonstrating with their lines/totals, they don't have a pulse of who is ready or not ....I very much could go splat on my plays but for now, I will risk and lean towards starting well so I can be more selective as they hone in 

@Last2thirst

Watching this Sparty team.....sleeper 7-6 /8-5 team? 

AUBURN .....looks SEC good!! 

RESULTS/Upcoming Bets:

Play #1 - Boise -6  x  1.5U  

Play #2 Thursday - Minnesota Under 44.5 x HALF U  << double up play to next one if loss but I won

Play #3 Friday - Sparty - WMU Under 50.5 x HALF   

----------------------------------------------------------

Friday plays:

Wake F-Kennesaw Under 51 x HALF U  

App St  Under 49.5 x HALF U        

CMU - SJSU Under  x HALF U ..... TRENDING UNDER (TBD)

Saturday plays:

Tulane UNDER 45.5 x 1U

Toledo +10 x 1 U

Old Dominion +24 vs Indiana x HALF U

------------------------------------------------------

more to come Saturday likely.....

UNDER TREND that I have uncovered and exploiting is now in Week #1 > 14 - 3 UNDER in games where Top 136 SP+ teams face each other 

 Big Fan .....thx so much, learning!!

Looking for teams that are not too far off on OFF SP+ or DEF SP+ or both and just playing UNDERS ....I think Vegas set totals far too high for week 1 with so many transfers, new QBs switching etc 

Leaning to an OLE MISS stomping and the UNDER Tomorrow night << no play yet... still evaluating

Lean Michigan Over > think they score at least one defensive TD + 4-5 on offense ...NM should score once or twice for 10 pts max ....I see a 41 or 42 - 10 win coming ....just gonna watch though to evaluate them for other plays

Definitely > UTEP +6.5 x HALF U tomorrow with Malachi Nelson at QB (former 5 star USC recruit/Boise last yr behind Madsen) and some good offensive players to work with him at UTEP

UTAH - UCLA Under 50.5 x HALF U

- both teams breaking in QBs  ..... defenses and run game should rule here 

Hawaii - Arizona Under 52.5 x HALF U - Hawaii showed they can play defense and their QB is banged up with ankle sprain but gonna play.... I think Zona will play them tough and Hawaii's defense will prevent Zona from scoring more than 31 ...maybe 33 and Hawaii scores 14-20 .....33 - 20 worse case puts it over .....I see one side dominating or its a defensive slugfest? Lots of UNDERS in Week 1

Add another HALF U to Arizona Under but this time at a Total of 54..really moved over night 

5 - 1 ATS/Totals after last night...I am due for regression today...so tread carefully ..hoping that is not the case and the UNDER trend continues 

On as under as well

best wishes today 

With you on Toledo

Lets get it bro

That's good to know Spottie  .... the record is too much to ignore...I am about to do an analysis in my other thread to demonstrate what is going on with UNDERS and maybe what might be to look for .... 

Ya baby! General stamp of approval 

GL  on your plays & this  season @Last2thirst 

Thanks Westie...by the looks of your start, your thread is a must see every time ...awesome start bro 

GL buddy !

Maceo, thx 

@Last2thirst

RESULTS/Upcoming Bets:

Play #1 - Boise -6  x  1.5U  

Play #2 Thursday - Minnesota Under 44.5 x HALF U  << double up play to next one if loss but I won

Play #3 Friday - Sparty - WMU Under 50.5 x HALF   

----------------------------------------------------------

Friday plays:

Wake F-Kennesaw Under 51 x HALF U  

App St  Under 49.5 x HALF U        

CMU - SJSU Under  x HALF U     

Saturday plays:

Tulane UNDER 45.5 x 1U    

Toledo +10 x 1 U               

Old Dominion +24 vs Indiana x HALF U    

UTEP +6.5 x HALF U  Malachi Nelson at QB (former 5 star USC recruit/Boise last yr behind Madsen) and some good offensive players to work with him at UTEP

UTAH - UCLA Under 50.5 x HALF U

- both teams breaking in QBs  ..... defenses and run game should rule here 

Hawaii - Arizona Under 52.5 x HALF U ....... Sat morning: Add another HALF U to Arizona Under but this time at a Total of 54

Still evaluating 1-2 more ....definitely a strong opinion on the LSU game....too much hype with Cade 'Klubfoot' ....he has to show me ....do like the LSU QB and LSU team speed ...but who knows how ready and motivated a Brian Kelly team is at the start of the year....lately they have been not....its SEC vs ACC ....BIG 10 is THE conference where the big dogs are now ....ACC is not and SEC really has to step up as BIG 10 is stealing their thunder to start the year

I have a very strong lean to UNDER LSU and LSU +4 or even +4.5 ....as much as I like DABO....LSU teams have great athletes ...am I insane as this is a night game @Clemson where almost no one never wins!! << This is preventing me from playing and might just go in -game instead as its better to watch and gain intel than to be jaded on a team after losing cash on them 

Like IRISH Under but no confirmation...TOTALS tending to rise by game time so gonna wait