L2T preseason thread/ 2024 data analysis

IT'S 

TIME !!!  

I am very stoked for this season so much so that I stopped doing my daily MLB data inputting + daily picks TO GET READY here and that is something because my home team is one of the two best teams in baseball and a joy to watch.......

...so I have been cracking data like never before for a season, as well as continuing to read all the very astute and informative threads so far posted in the NCAAF forum early..... muchos gracias all of you that have contributed so far and will in the coming weeks 

ESPN+ ratings were hugely important for me last year to catch up and get the scope of things for relative strengths and how things changed after each week's results...... I am presently in a comparative to last year ....from the beginning Aug SP+ to the end the final SP+ numbers that were posted for each team after the BUCKEYES won the final game. First bit of sharing below and soon they should be publishing the first preseason rankings for 2025. In the meantime, notice the start rank for 2024 rank on the left and the final ranking for the teams on the right of the back-slash.....some interesting observations I will outline in the coming days leading up to the first game. ....still cracking data!

You can probably see that the Top 6 did not change much except for a little scrambling of their ranks from beginning to end

SP+ Aug ‘24/Jan ‘25

Geor 1./  6

OhSt  2./ 1

Oreg  3./ 3

Alab  4./  4

Tex    5./  7

Penn 6./  5

Mich  7./ 26

OleM 8./  2

ND    9./  8

LSU 10./ 15

Mizz 11./ 19

FSU 12./ 83

Okla 13./ 33

TXAM14./13

Tenn 15./  9

Clem16./ 22

K- St.17./ 18

Utah 18./ 40

Mia   19./ 10

OkieSt 20/81

USC  21/ 23

Kty   22/ 45

Flor  23/ 20

Iowa 24/ 16

Aub. 25/ 34

Wisc 26/ 60

SMU 27/ 12

Ariz.  28/ 82

NCst 29/ 56

IWst 30/ 28

Lou. 31/ 21

Wash32/ 58

Kans 33/ 50

WVU 34/ 65

S.Car35/ 14

Vtech36/ 30

UCLA37/ 75

TCU 38/ 25

Bois 39/ 29

UNC40/ 49

Ttech41/ 54

Nebr 42/ 47

Memp43/ 32

Arky 44/ 24

UCF 45/ 62

Mary 46/ 86

Minn 47/ 27

Lib   48/ 71

Rutg 49/ 42

To me, NOTRE DAME and OHIO STATE demonstrate that balance in strengths on both sides of the ball at a very high ranking + coaching decision probably are the right cocktail but realize I am only have one season of comparative and maybe when I get board in the fall, I just might breakdown the 2023-24 playoff season with ESPN SP+ data also....if I can get it.

BALANCE ON BOTH SIDES: -very important?

Final 2:       OFF rank /DEF

Ohio St            #3      #1

Notre D.           #4      #7

Final 4 losers:

Texas             #13      #2

Penn St.          #9       #4   (could have easily made it to final- what a game!!)

Final 8 losers:

Georgia         #10       #9  (they lost their star QB)

*** in my humble opinion, Kirby had a team ready to get to final and maybe win it? They had balance!

Oregon          #2         #14 (got smoked by #1 team in grudge match!)

Arizona St.     #32       #27

Boise  St.       #17       #50

Note: - I am bookmarking this thread for end of season and playoff time to go back and have a look because it will get buried over time

FULL COMPARISON of starting SP+ offered in August 2024 vs the final SP+ position for both Offense /Defense Ratings is now inputted and observations to follow with forthcoming posts:

Comparison Focus will address these Questions:

1. Are improvements in defense rank more impactful than offense or vica/versa to final record /placing on TOP 134 List?

2. What is the rank improvement/regression number (average) that is correlated with what Wins/Loss records? (and hopefully find out impacts related to spreads eventually)

3. Can I expect to use this info (changing SP+ numbers over the season) to help me as the season progresses and bowl season? Do I see an edge somewhere? << there is a great capper in ncaaf forum who you will recognize from the data results I am going to layout shortly, was on 2-3 of the teams that made the biggest improvements throughout the season from August SP+ numbers to the end of the season and people were salivating over weekly line numbers once people realized that he had found major gold with his sources - methods ....you will know it is in my next post from seeing the teams that improved the greatest and how it impacted their Win/Loss record....but I think Vegas was slow to adjust as they tend to use a mix of Sagarin, SP+, other ratings and their own data tendencies that they have crafted....but they often are too slow and too stubborn to place a preseason 80th ranked team as a fave until their record warrants it. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Once I input the 2024 season game results week by week with final spreads , I ultimately want to see patterns from Week 0-2 , Week 3-5 and so on........

Since using organizing spreadsheets more and tracking/looking at patterns:

-improved NCAAB season results/NCAA tourney bets

-have become a more consistent MLB bettor << its gotta be the toughest to make consistent money unless you are a helluva a feel bettor or lucky

I am hoping for the same with NCAAF and will use this thread to share info / give some teams to follow maybe (this should work out after 2 seasons once I have consistency occuring patterns)

Which Schools improved the most from early SP+ numbers on both defense and offense combined in the 2024 regular season?

School    Total Imp.ranks   Off Imp/Def Imp.    Start rank    Record

1. Indiana   119                  73 / 46                     #81         (11 - 2)

2. Army       113                  73 / 40                     #103       (12 - 2)

3. Ariz. St.    93                   48 / 45                     #79         (11 - 3)

4. UCONN     92                   59 / 33                    #125         (9 - 4)

5. BYU          92                   27 / 65                    #69          (11 - 2)

6. Navy        90                   73 / 17                    #113         (10 - 3)                   

7. UNLV        81                   17 / 64                    #82          (11 - 3)

8. Tex St.     77                    36 / 41                    #86          (8 - 5)

9. Marsh.     67                    33 / 34                    #95          (10 - 3)

10. Color.     60                    5 / 55                     #60          (9 - 4)

------------------------------------------------------------------

Best Improvement in Top 40:

1. S. Carolina      42 improved ranks on both sides of the ball

2. Iowa               41

3. SMU/Louis.      26

5. USC                25

BUCKEYES >>     23

Will look at average improvement + regression  compared to win/loss record .....tomorrow likely

Some things that stood out when I look at changes to SP+ ranks combined OFF/DEF rank changes when comparing preseason SP+  ranks with end of season ranks:

1. Almost every team that improved their OFF/DEF ranks by at least 10 or more, had a winning record, and many with high winning %'s . There was a total of 43 TEAMS with improved ranks by 10+ by the end of the season

- teams with positive win% = 38 /43 = 88% of those had bowl records

- there were 3 outliers (teams far away from a .500 record) so if we put those in = 38/46 = 83%

2. When I look at just overall OFFENSE numbers, I also see something interesting.....

a. 6 out of the Top 10 teams in preseason regressed by the end to a higher rank

b. 25 out of the Top 40 teams in preseason out of 40, regressed by the end to a higher ranking for offense

----------------------------------------------

c. In the middie preseason rank teams (#41-85) I see a slight above avg rate > 24 - 21 improvement on offense

d. In the last third of poorer teams (#86-134), there is a positive improvement also 26 - 23

3. When I look at just overall DEFENSE numbers, this is what I see:

a. Defense improvement was strongest in TOP 10 

6 - 2 - 2 for improved ranking

- #11 - 40th = 11 - 19 

- #41 - 85 = 23 - 22

- #86 - 134 = 25 - 24 improved

My takeaways:

-focus on finding teams to ride with improving offense in teams ranked over 40th ....to find those Indiana, UNLV, Army etc types...but they will have to have a good base defense

- focus on defense with spreads of preseason Top 10 and Top 40 teams....... 

- I am beginning to think it might be best to find a 'stable' or collection of about 5 -10 teams and 'quietly' ride them in most situations where the spread is favoring the offensive team too much despite them having a weak/er defense than their opponent

Going to dive into teams that regressed purely...

Then, going to see if there is a correlation with # of transfers and perhaps # of senior players....

Great work through this thread brotha! 

If you can make sense of all of this and make bank, that's the whole point of our NCAAF community so just being the 'data guy' soon turning into 'da picks guy' ...... you and others blazed a trail early and got me inspired JW 

SP+ rankings should be out this week....last year was AUG 14 and little did I know, they would become a significant influence on some of my selecting methodology.....this year they are gonna be a good base for comparison once again

In the meantime, here is the ESPN coaches poll out .....remember, TOP 10 last year on first SP+ was pretty close ...especially the final 6 teams in how their offense and defence numbers stayed consistent within 10 ranks mostly on both sides of the ball with the exception being the Buckeyes improving on offense and defense to win it all

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/45899490/texas-ohio-state-penn-state-top-preseason-coaches-poll

Looking at all early polls, if the HORNS are #1 with Arch at QB, how come Arch wasn't utilized in the Playoffs??

Also.... I see offensively, Penn St is pretty stacked with ALLAR, SINGLETON and ALLEN and 5 OL + some good receiver transfers.... and yet they are #2?

Is this a case of an SEC team having to be #1? I want to watch both teams play before I declare personally and maybe another team is better.....very interesting TOP 6 closeness in voting numbers

I am a HORN fan and a P-STate fan but as I look on paper I know who has the better coach but I really want to see which QB gets utilized with their offensive sets and how both defenses play vs last year

I am wracking my brain as to the fact, did Texas not fully utilize all their talent on the sidelines chasing a championship and now they are rewarded with a group that has all the key components to win it all above others?

Lots has to play out and this year will be no different

@Last2thirst

   Your contributive efforts in this thread is commendable! 

Thanks Fubah ....am working on a post right now to make people think

Best wishes on your season . I will have my nose deep into data for quite a while and hopefully my intuition can work together with it to have a successful win rate. I take nothing for granted as in these times, money is more precious than ever it seems 

Ok. Improvement and Regression in Top 5 - 10 - 20 in 2024 that should help you to understand ....a lot has to play out and even a 2 or 3 loss team has a shot at winning it all!! 

Case in point for 2024 / might dip into Top 10 of 2023 too:

Rank improvement in offense/defense from pre-season poll to final Jan. 2025 SP+ rating

PRE-SEASON Rank:

1. Georgia > regressed on their SP+  numbers by 11 rank places at the end

2. Ohio St > improved SP+ greatly and won easily!!!

3. Oregon > SP+ totals for Off/Def added to same number by the end of the year

4. Alabama > improved final SP+ ratings by 1 rank 

5. Texas > lost to Ohio St. and in my opinion, bullied/controlled and now they are #1 not letting their star backup with multi-offensive tools like an extra backer to play and to get back into it, now the coaches and AP make them #1 with this QB???

-improved SP+ rank by 1

6. Penn St. > had a final game berth in their hands and the Irish snatched it away in an epic game

-improved SP+ rank by 15 by the end ...many top stars back and ol-ine and get strong transfers/freshmen but only #2 preseason which should fire them up!!

7. Michigan > regressed by 60 ranks

8. Ole Miss > improved by 12 ranks on both sides of the ball in total

9. Notre Dame > in the final 

-improved SP+ ranks in total by 8 ranks 

10. LSU > regressed by 5 total ranks 

15. Tenn. >moved up to #9 and improved by 5 rank pts 

19. Miami > moved up to #10 by end and regressed by 3 rank pts 

---------------------------------------------------------------

I think consistency is key... but so is improvement if you wish to rise through that Top 4.....there are no longer any super powerhouses as there might have been before 

This makes it great for bettors....and with a little elbow grease...one might be able to find the pathway to make a lot near the end of the season and through the playoffs..

Then there are guys like the 'Smoking Cat '...my friend and someone I look up to ....who find those nuggets rated 110th - 35th rank that rise up and roll.......INDIANA and ARMY come to mind the nuggets he found and pounded the table....Texas St as well...Tulane .....what a season Wahoo had  and I commend the methodology he uses (a secret!!) haha but I see it in the big SP+ changes which is another reason why this week I am plotting or inputting the whole 2024 season to see what transpired in the data 

Put in the work DURING the season and watch for improvement to find those teams rising in SP+ playing a team that is rated higher but inconsistent or a weaker team that is inconsistent and I think you go with it!!!

2023 SP+ Preseason rankings and final rank in Jan 2024

1. Georgia >  finished #2 rank

-regressed by 1 rank

2. Ohio St > finished #4 rank

-regressed by 23 ranks on both sides of the ball

3. Michigan > won it all!!

-regressed by 2 ranks by end of year

4. Alabama > finished #7

-regressed by 4 ranks 

5. LSU > finished #10 

-regressed by 30 ranks 

6. Penn St > finished #5

-regressed by 7 ranks

7. Clemson > finished #23

-regressed by 50 ranks 

8. Tenn. > finished #14

-regressed by 5 ranks

9. Texas > finished #6

-improved by 8 ranks

10. USC > finished #31

-regressed by 59 ranks 

-----------------------------------

Strange year and all except one team regressed in ratings through season in this Top 10 but they did not have the PLAYOFF FORMAT of 2024

Will dive into regression as the season went on for 2024 in the next series of day sometime over the next 2 days.....then finally seniors vs improvement to see if there is any correlation and then consider transfers...

Having just completed comparing regression and ranking progression in both OFF/DEF over the season from Week 0 to January final rankings for 2023 now and 2024 .....this is what I see:

Preseason Rank Zone in SP+  (40th - 100th)

- quite a few dip under 40th rank and some into the Top 25 for final SP+ ranking

2023 > NCST #39th - (+4) , Maryland #21(+20) , SMU #24 (+23), Duke #30 (+20), WVU #38 (+22), Kansas #25(+37), Troy #26(+38), James M. #20 (+46), Arizona #18 (+49), Liberty #33 (+49)

2024 > Indiana #11 (+70), Arizona St. #35 (+44), BYU #17 (+52), Illinois #31 (+30), Colorado #39 (+21), Baylor #38(+15), Minnesota #27 (+20), Arkansas #24 (+20), Memphis #32 (+11), 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

2024 REGRESSION - BADLY in this zone

Maryland (#46 pre) > #86 (-66 rank pt drop on OFF/DEF)

Liberty  (#48 pre) > #71 (-18 rank pt drop on OFF/DEF)

Oreg St. (#50 pre) > #97 (-68 rank pt drop on OFF/DEF)

Miss St.  (#55 pre) > #88 (-61 rank pt drop on OFF/DEF)

App St   (#59 pre) > #100 (-49 rank pt drop on OFF/DEF)

note: - THERE ARE 12 more instances of team regressing from preseason rank to down over 15 places lower by the end 

Main takeaway >>> watch SP+ ratings more rather than wins/losses and spreads relating to them

-after 2nd SP+ rating comes....sift through carefully and compare to pre-season SP+ rating that might be out tomorrow or by Friday and look for:

-improving SP+ with the dog

- improving SP+ greatly with the fave....is Vegas not giving it enough respect??

- avoid dropping SP+ teams that are faves by -4 or higher.....chances are, they may regress further but again you need to look at other things as well such as injury report, quarterback play and their development, etc....

- I would look for at least 10 teams in the 30th - 100th rank preseason and check those scoreboxes each game to see how they are progressing /make notes and watch their SP+ ranks for improvement in total of 10+ after 2 game updates of ESPN SP+ Ratings and any team with a combo of OFF/DEF ratings in total adding up to 10 rank pts or more improvement, put them on your list to follow until they regress the other way....then work the matchup angle and take pts? take small fave vs an opponent who is regressing in SP+ ranks ?

Up next when I get time....correlation with Transfer numbers...is there a pattern?

....correlation with # of returning players to lineup equally considerable SP+ improvement?

Ahh - woooooooo - Werewolves of London..... Ahhhh wooooooooo

Love the line he sings ..... ' his hair was perfect" 

 Top shelf analytics and information…thank you. 

“Main takeaway >>> watch SP+ ratings more rather than wins/losses and spreads relating to them” 

Considering that SP+ ratings will be out anytime, and I don't expect them to look exactly like AP/Coaches poll.....I would make a copy or bookmark and view this first one as a means of comparison constantly

- when I plot the full 2024 season game by game today each week (not sure if I will get it done), spreads will be included on my chart so maybe there is a correlation of I can find there so we know if a fair line or exploitable line is there with SP+ improvement ever 2 games 

-so #2, I would also recommend copying each ESPN SP+ chart it comes after a weekend or two, and they are out on the Monday almost always 

When I used to use Sagarin ratings, I did find Vegas setting lines close to his differentials ...but I recall last year, SP+ was different more and seemed to find those Army, Indiana lines early on if you compared the differentials between teams.....just didn't know if I could trust it since the idea was nascent .....but some found those early and not likely did they use this methodology

I don't know how much betting I will do the first couple of weeks but I think I will do some comparing and take some stabs based on what happened in WEEK 0/1 last year once plotted

Something I notice that is significant:

- overall rank drops in SP+ of > 15 ranks and especially over 30 ranks, indicate a major dropoff in one early perceived strength on ONE side of the ball

2023

- 6 out of 10 droppers of > 15 ranks were DROPS in offensive rank by 30-60 rank drop in that category

- 2 out of 10 droppers > had ranks on both sides of ball drop off by around 25-30 ranks

- only 2 out of 10 droppers > had a DEFENSE

...thinks changed in 2024 in the 40th - 100th rank zone of teams 

2024

-most of the drop offs came on the defensive side of the ball

- this makes sense because last year, the number of transfers that happened I recall, seemed to be both greater and leaning more to the OFFENSIVE side of the ball (is that a result of teams seeing the same OFF regression that  I see in the 2023 stats?)

YES... would be my answer lean

2025 - if you find a team has a lot of good quality offensive players transferred, it would appear to me that they might move up the fastest but they still have to have a reasonably decent defensive so pay attention to those SP+ rises or dropoffs initially in first half of season

- I just wonder, for those teams that shored up young 2nd yr talent after 2023, what did they do in 2024 transfer window and if they got some star defenders ...4-5 star types.....then you just might have a strong climber potential but the QB has to have a proven track record in my opinion of moving the ball

I'm reading about a lot of new QBs on excellent teams in addition to Arch and Gunner finally taking over the helm.....is that why Clemson with Cade who could never put it together when asked vs top teams, is getting his team a lift?

Big caution with Cade "Klubfoot" ....I think Quinn Ewers was better in his second last yr than last year ....and so I really am going to let the play dictate for me where I measure the TOP 30 teams for the most part and find those nuggets 10 teams from 31-100 that I think have something going that might be overlooked ...including a good coach and set of transfers to compliment what the coach really wants to do because in essence, he is selecting 'seasoned' athletes over the mistakes or over valuing of some recruits he signed out of high school in many instances and a coach knowing what tangibles he want for his system is easier to see in a transfer portal with film + athletic development at 1-2 yrs already at least....

YA BABY!!!!!!!!! I have been insanely busy in a good but away from sports completely except to watch the Jays beat the Cubs late afternoon

LOOK WHAT CAME...in last 24 hrs and right off the bat, it looks different from AP/Coaches poll

I love it!!! Bill Connelly  Aug 13, 2025, 01:08 PM ET

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/45966848/college-football-2025-preseason-sp+-rankings

Discuss amongst yourselves....for me, it was my moneymaker last yr ...it may be meh to you and I used to buy PHIL STEELE religiously but stopped 2 yrs ago when I saw this and learned it can by mined in a way....I am comfortable with

I am inputting the Top 134 SP+ teams....

SEC and Big 10 on equal footing in the Top 10 ...exact to be clear with 1 ACC team making it and 1 Independent 

First time for me that I recall seeing SEC/BIG 10 on in the power rankings 

It just makes sense and perhaps, if anything it should lean toward BIG 10 with two titles in a row and my early hunch is PENN ST is the sleeper team.... SP+ thinks it could be Alabama even

Wish you the very best this season 

Thx Spottie, U2 man... I see you are on it early!