Record stands @ 6-4 + 2,737.00. Lost my last posted play on that epic meltdown by Cal being up 3 TD’s @ Hawaii. Crazy. I move on. This is a MAX play because, I think Iowa is the better team here and they will probably win SU. When I cap this game , Vandy wins by no more than a FG if that. Last night when I started capping this game, the spread was- 5.5 , it’s dropped a 1.5 overnight. That’s 100 % wise guy , smart $ hitting Iowa extremely hard. “ PFF “ Power overall strength has Iowa ranked 14th , Vandy @ 13th. On defense Iowa ranked @ 10th , Vandy @ a lowly 76th. Offense Iowa @ 20th , and Vandy @ 3rd nationally much closer there. Iowa runs the ball over 57% of the time, which means, they’ll possess the ball more and eventually wear down Vandy’s defense. EPA per run Iowa ranked + 0.10 & Vandy is @ + 0.11. EPA in the passing game, Iowa is negative @ - 0.08 whereas Vandy is strong in the passing game @ + 0.41. But , Iowa is top 5 nationally @ drop back EPA per play allowed @ - 0.260. Iowa only allowed 15.17 points a game this season, where Vandy allowed on average 21.92 pts a game. Iowa only gave up on average 15.25 1st downs a game, where Vandy allowed 21.92 1st downs. Again we will have more opportunities on offense, you will 100 % see that happen. Ferentz is 46-22-3 ATS when facing teams that average 8.0 yards or more yds attempt through the air, where Vandy is 33-12 ATS when playing against a team that run for @ least 5.25 yards a game. Dog fight. Iowa is also 6-2 ATS in December bowl games under Ferentz. Special teams: Iowa is ranked 3rd nationally on offense @ ( + 32.21 ) & 10th on defense @ ( + 25.94 ) , whereas Vandy only ranks 60th on offense @ ( 28.52 ) & 49th on defense. Vandy on defense in dropback EPA are not even in the top 50 nationally @ ( - 0.006 ) so we will run it on them and when we want to we will throw it on them. Vandy is also stronger in SOS by a few spots. Can’t find my numbers on that , sorry. This is my kind of game. A total rock fight. Everyone knows , I love teams that play defense. Iowa + 4.5 6,250/5,000 ( buy ) & + 4.5 585/500 , two separate books. I’ll probably sprinkle on the ML as well. GL to all on Iowa today..
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