🏈🏈🏈 Fubah2's risky CFB bets

 In coming couple weeks I will be posting my Preseason rankings and ratings for all CFB teams within their conferences.

The RANKINGS will place them in projected order within the conference and the RATINGS will be my assessment of the strength of the team within the structure of all 136 teams in FBS Division 1.

I use multiple sources (Phil Steele is invaluable for data!) but much of my projections are based on my notes from last season on how the teams fared LAST YEAR while integrating new assumptions for this year based on returning coaching, starters, seniors, talent - particularly at QB, OL and DL

 I view those positions the most critical of all bar none. 

Anyone is free to comment, and as often as you wish. I don't bite and I don't argue. And I am no expert by any means, just a student of the game - which is my fav sport (even though I have been more successful with bets in other leagues/sports)

 By all means create your own preseason rankings too!!  I'd be pleased to drop by your threads and see what you have!

Last year CFB:  213 - 99   68.3%  ...juice from 99 losses -18,588

@fubah2

 Here’s to a great season 

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Last year CFB:  213 - 99   68.3% ...juice from 99 losses -18,588

 2023 CFB:   257 - 154     62.5% 

I use 7 main tiers for RATING their strength among all 136 FBS teams:

       G+      G       M+       M       M-       W       W-

In each conference I will lay out my RANKING (order inside Conf)  as well as a specific RATING (strength relative to all 136 teams)

AAC

M+ .......Tulane
M+/m ...USF
M+/m ...Memphis
M .........N.Texas
M .........Navy
M .........UTSA
M- ........Army
M- ........E.Carolina
M-/w ....Temple
W .........FAU
W .........Rice
W .........Charlotte
W/w- ...UAB
W- ......Tulsa

Good stuff brother!

MAC

In each conference I will lay out my RANKING (ie, order inside Conf)  as well as a specific RATING (ie, strength relative to all 136 teams)

I use 7 main tiers for RATING their strength among all 136 FBS teams:

           G+      G       M+       M       M-       W       W-  

    Whereby  G = GOOD......... M = Mediocre/Middlin........W = Weakass

M+/m ....Toledo
M+/M ....Buffy
M ..........Ohio
M- ........Bowling
M- ........Mia-OH
M- ........N.Illinois
m-/W ....C.Mich
m-/W ....E.Mich
W ......Akron
W ......W.Mich
W- ....Ball St.
W- ....UMass
W- ....Kent

Mountain West

In each conference I will lay out my RANKING (ie, order inside Conf)  as well as a specific RATING (ie, strength relative to all 136 teams)

I use 7 main tiers for RATING their strength among all 136 FBS teams:

        G+      G       M+       M       M-       W       W-  

    Whereby  G = GOOD......... M = Mediocre/Middlin........W = Weakass

G/m+ .....Boise
M ..........San Jose
M ..........Air Force
M/m- .....Hawaii
M/m- .....UNLV
M/m- .....Wyoming
M- .........Colorado St.
M- .........Fresno
M- .........San Diego St.
W .........Utah St.
W .........Nevada
W/w- ...New Mexico

@fubah2

 You are a good capper and a good money manager … from my perspective…. Appreciate your time n efforts.  

@fubah2

 BOL

@fubah2

 BOL

@fubah2

 BOL

FBS Independents

In each conference I will lay out my RANKING (ie, order inside Conf)  as well as a specific RATING (ie, strength relative to all 136 teams)

I use 7 main tiers for RATING their strength among all 136 FBS teams:

        G+      G       M+       M       M-       W       W-  

    Whereby  G = GOOD......... M = Mediocre/Middlin........W = Weakass

G+ .....Notre Dame
M .......Yukon "Sled Dogs"

@PaulieWalnutz

 Looking forward to it!  Hope you make good profit! 

I for one thank you Fubah… this conference has been intriguing to me past few seasons, and puzzling at the same time.  Comparing you with Steele is a lethal combination  After the obvious Boise, of the remaining teams, 6-7 could make a strong case for 2nd place and value weekly.  Spartans and Rebels come to mind… thx brother 

@JJWoods

 I have San Jose, Air Force, Wyo, and Hawaii rising in the conference by at least one "tier" each (in terms of improvement/quality)

But I am anticipating a sizable drop of UNLV from their strong M+ rating at the end of last season.  They drop from 14 starters (including returning QB) down to just 5 starters with a new QB (experienced, yes, but not great)......all new coaching staff........a lot of transfers in but each of them and the returning 5 starters will have to forget what they did last year and learn a whole new system.......OL decimated = no returning starters and transfer quality is a Q.......DL also wiped out.........only one mediocre LB returns.........All 4 starting receivers who gave them the good stats last year are gone........Defensive backfield totally decimated........ They even lose their Kicker and punter!.......And they should not be expected to repeat +9 net turnovers in conference play, which also helped them big time last season.

    All positions are important but I rate QB, OL, and DL the three top most important, in that order.  With DL I use a hybrid with LBs to form the all important front 7. In those top categories the Runnin Rebels are rebuilding with a whole bunch of guys who don't know each other and all new coaches. Those positions have no returning UNLV starters.   This is a total rebuild.  

They have a decent schedule and I expect they make a bowl but their overall strength as a team is highly likely be down considerably compared with last year.

 My 2 cents. 

@Mskeets

TY, sir!   More conference projections to come and other info...

CUSA

In each conference I will lay out my RANKING (ie, order inside Conf)  as well as a specific RATING (ie, strength relative to all 136 teams)

I use 7 main tiers for RATING their strength among all 136 FBS teams:

       G+      G       M+       M       M-       W       W- 

 Whereby  G = GOOD......... M = Mediocre/Middlin........W = Weakass

(in parenthesis after the team is how I had them ending last year)

M/m- .....Liberty (M-)
M- ........MTSU (W-)
M-/W.....Lou.Tech (W)
m-/W.....Delaware     (FCS #15 last yr; team likely better this yr!)
W ........W.KY (M-)
W ........Sam Houston (M)
W ........UTEP (W-)
W ........N.Mex. State (W-)
W ........JVille. St. (M)
W ........Fla. Int (W)
W- ......Missouri St.    (FCS #12 last yr; this yr rebuilding)
W- ......Kennesaw (W-)

 and that’s why I asked! Thank you for the reply and info.   

@Midnight1

Hoping YOU have a fine season this year! 

PAC-12

In each conference I will lay out my RANKING (ie, order inside Conf)  as well as a specific RATING (ie, strength relative to all 136 teams)

I use 7 main tiers for RATING their strength among all 136 FBS teams:

       G+      G       M+       M       M-       W       W- 

 Whereby  G = GOOD......... M = Mediocre/Middlin........W = Weakass

(in parenthesis after the team is how I had them ending last year)

M.........Oregon St. (M-)
M-/w ....Wash. State (M)

Sad to see the once proud PAC12 only two members.

Will have 8 mediocre teams next year.

BIG 12

In each conference I will lay out my RANKING (ie, order inside Conf)  as well as a specific RATING (ie, strength relative to all 136 teams)

I use 7 main tiers for RATING their strength among all 136 FBS teams:

       G+       G        M+        M        M-        W       W- 

 Whereby  G = GOOD......... M = Mediocre/Middlin ........W = Weak

(in parenthesis after the team is how I had them ending last year)

G+/G ..... Arizona St.  (G+/G  same!)
G ............Tex. Tech (M+)
G ............Iowa St. (G)
G/M+ .......Baylor (M+)
G/M+ ......TCU (M+)
G/M+ ......KSU (G/M+)
M+ ........ UTAH (M)
M+ ........ Cincinnati (M)
M+/m .... Kansas (M+)
M+/m .... BYU (G+/G)
M+/m .... Colorado (G/m+)
M+/m .... Houston (m/M-)
M .......... UCF (M)
M .......... West Va. (M)
M .......... Arizona (M-)
M- .........Okla. St (M-)

SUN BELT

In each conference I will lay out my RANKING (ie, order inside Conf)  as well as a specific RATING (ie, strength relative to all 136 teams)

I use 7 main tiers for RATING their strength among all 136 FBS teams:

            G+       G        M+        M        M-        W       W- 

 Whereby  G = GOOD......... M = Mediocre/Middlin ........W = Weak

(in parenthesis after the team is how I had them ending last year)

M+/M .... James Maddison (M+/M)
M ......... Ga. Southern  (M)
M ......... Old Dominion  (M-)
M/M- .... Louisiana Cajuns (M+/M)
M/M- .... Tex. State  (M)
M/M- .... S.Alabama (M/M-)
M- ........ Troy   (M-/W)
M- ........ ULM   (M-/W)
M- ........ Coastal Car. (M-)
M- ........ Marshall   (M+)
M- ........ Appalachia (M-)
M- ........ S. Miss.  (W-)
M-/W .... Ga.State  (W)
W ........ Arkansas St. (M-)

Of course preseason camps in football will result in injuries (possibly suspensions) 

so these ranking will be revisted and possibly revised some at season start.

I may also do so with regard to devastating injuries as the season progresses in the opening weeks.