@BubbaGumpShrimp
Hahaaaa my dude thanks for the intro yer too kind ..
yep ASU .. started from the bottom and now we're here .. they look good and sound good .. yeah true but critical the media knows yer name and yep Sam Levitt went 'household' this off season and he's 20-1 heisman now .. would be great if he punched a trip to NY .. esp w 3 of my dogs in there too to make the hedge all the more fun lol we'll see .. But yeah ASU sets the bar for this conf really high with the epic finish / massive ret pro, buttoned up the iffy areas hopefully, gaggle of RB's and a few other guys that can catch the ball .. fg kicker was horrific .. need some QB pressure guys .. they improve there and its a real dangerous group ..
We'll see how we do this year on the RSW's I tend to sour on a few of em around this time but honestly kinda still like em all .. doubled down on Tennessee yesterday U8.5 at -130 with fans melting down over all the camp issues, they could pull it together but think very possible they're set up to crater at some pt and start focus on next year play young QB's and the really young guys .. 9 wins for them even w schedule that seems they can make it, think its incredibly tough to string it together .. No surprise that NOBODY likes tulsa lol .. fine ... glad we got in at 2.5 not 3.5 .. NU, ARMY, UAB not alot of room for error there they could shake out the wrong way but still like em .. that's about it for concerns feels pretty good .. SDSU better not be F'in around this year lol ..
Good luck this year my dude ... GO DEVILS!!! 
@UNIMAN
Which QB .. ?.. was on my radar if the idaho kid doesn't play could be trouble .. injured in spring ..
I had their safety group as maybe a surprise but their DL was like maybe one guy 300+ and gets small quick .. maybe that changed .. but if that's still the case and offense can't push them around up front then whole team sounds like MAJOR TROUBLE ..
Man o man uni if Mich d!cks around w these guys .. it better be over in 5 minutes or yer whole season is done .. yer QB is gunna hit the portal mid september!!! lol
Yeah, Layne played and it's a two-man race for qb between Laubstein and Layne. Three wr's were out including expected wr#1 Keagan Johnson.
I have issues with Michigan (always do). They gave transfer wr McCulley jr the #1 jersey and are hyping him up as the next 1000 yd receiver. Have my doubts. After spring ball in 2024 Cignetti commented that McCulley had things to work on. And then he lasted one game for Cignetti.
Mich WR coach Bellamy on McCulley; Man, I'll tell you what: His work ethic is second to none. He loves working. He's the first one out there, last one out there. A reserved guy, doesn't say much, but he shows up in the run game, loves to block, pass game. He's right now, refining his toolset. Making sure the top of the route is clean. Ball skills are pretty elite. He's doing the things that we were asking him to do., and he's doing good things.
I don't know, just get a glass half-empty feeling on this guy. Refining his toolset? Shows up in run game? Ok, that's good but would rather hear has speed, fantastic route runner, makes great catches.
There are several other wr's who should be ok.
All the talk is Lindsey will open up the offense but I suspect it will be more ball control and leaning on the D in big games. But with games like New Mexico and Central Michigan you gotta think they'll give Underwood every chance to shine bright cause the portal is always waiting for the unhappy.
@UNIMAN
Haha yeah "best teammate you could ask for.. he's learned so much, even helpful teaching the new guys .. tools are much sharper now he's a huge key to our run game" hahaaaa! .. yeah sorry Uni but yer gunna have to wait till next year to have a real receiver ..
I mean cmon Uni .. Indy took him on as kindof a joke at first .. needed an extra practice dummy last year but they've since filled up the unit with legit deep threats and other stars they pulled out of thin air so just no room for a guy like that on a champ caliber roster .. but he's a great fit at michigan leading receiver easily should get 3 maybe 350 receiving yards this year.. no shame .. gotta start somewhere .. bahaha jk buddy jk ..
@UNIMAN
Ha dude im messin w you got carried away when I was doing the quotes thing ... I don't have any real insight into their sitch so far we saw em in the spring QB true fr qb struggles vs top D smothering playing their hardest like im expecting alot better come september ..
As for OSU you know how I feel.. might be okay but nothing extra special and being #1 at SP and #1 odds on natty puts them on my hit list .. I'd do a massive fade-o-rama on them but not enough books doing enough games of the year this yr and most won't let you string em together .. MGM only spot I know that will let us do it and has GOY's going .. Tenn is my main fade but got this one too .. would do ML on PSU too but not allowed .. anyway .. let's go stranglin ..
BUCKEYE STRANGLER - GOY FADE
TEXAS ML, PENN ST+4.5, MICH ML 9.6-1 (MGM)
Yeah, see DK won't let you string them.
Not so sure on Buc's. Sayin looks to have a high ceiling yet very green starting out. See the buc's added Josh Boyer to the defensive staff. Thinking they'll be leaning on that D for awhile.
If Underwood gets hurt wolv offense is done with Keene slow to get healthy. He has legs but I imagine they won't use them unless absolutely have to.
Seeing Texas at the Shoe as a tossup, going with under and maybe a small insurance play on OT.
SMALLER
KANSAS / KANS ST -3.5 WK9 (ESPN)
K.State has won 16 in a row in this series 8 in a row on the road and while recently Kansas has covered a few of these games finally the wins have eluded them .. I think the Jayhawks are a little overrated coming into this year they lost a ton on both sides of the ball and the really good OC went to Penn St last year .. Leipold's long time DC left Brian Borland retired after last year .. lot of defensive firepoower out the door is what I noticed .. on offense they had a good group of playmaking WR's now gone .. the top 2 maybe 3 are in the not bad category but depth is a major issue and just from what I'm reading in their fall camp this is more less the story for much of the team .. Hishaw and Leshaon Williams the 2 RBs are a credible tandem and we like Daniels at QB but real bad passing early in the year put KU in a bad spot early and think we could see more of the struggling version of this team than the one that picked themselves up late in the year .. and real prob for KU if the QB has his lingering injury issues come back .. not a total rebuild but not ideal roster situation .. I got a look over Kansas State not as sure how their camp is going but the roster looks pretty good and their QB had his injury last year should be a pretty fun rush offense with him healthy and other parts looked ready to compete for a B12 title again .. KU overrated and think K-State gets em again and taking the short line smaller .. good luck!
SMALLER
TEXAS / FLORIDA UNDER 53.5 WK6 (FAN)
Think D's rule in this one .. there's a chance Florida's WR's are just that good and things can get a little wild going tit for tat vs Arch .. But the run games for both are very strong and while we think of Sark as a throwing coach he brings the run game in all his big games .. Billy well known for his run heavy and very slow burn offense taking their time to snap the ball .. both teams are also LOADED in the box and beyond.. maybe edge to UT here but Texas will want to be real careful on the road vs this bunch and think good chance if they get a lead they try to just sit on this one .. not one I'd predict to deliver above average scoring .. good luck!
SMALLER
PENN STATE / IOWA UNDER 45.5 WK8
Here's one you really can't put low enough .. I like Iowa getting a QB like Gronowski but we've seen him play vs Iowa while at SDSU and while you can't say its all apples to apples we didn't see anything close to producing points from the high powered SDSU offense that eventually mopped the floor with all of FCS layed the wood on NDSU in the natty that year .. Iowa might be changing some things up with the offensive coaching too but reputation among receivers is that of a career killer I don't think they'll be taking many good shots down field vs this PSU D .. I expect their drives to be painfully slow with first downs picked by Gronowski on the ground and otherwise by their run game .. which took a massive hit with the good RB going pro .. I don't expect the new guy to pick up where he left off .. There is a risk PSU's new WR unit is likely much improved and they won't be fumbling games away with ZERO WR receptions this year .. that said this is a really nasty road game in Ames and Iowa's D sounds like another classic again this year .. field goals and field position very much worth angling for in this one .. think offenses can put up a score like 20-9 with plenty of room for a couple defensive scores .... suspect total by kickoff close to breaking into the 30's .. good luck!
Looks damn good!!
@UNIMAN
Yeah buddy I mean I'm not big on hittin 45.5 GOY unders and there's a risk Penn State's offense could be a total game wrecker and make this a problem maybe we don't get total moving down pre-kick .. but still might also need Iowa's D to pitch some shock surprise turds this year .. if so then yeah its maybe trouble .. but even if so and we don't get total movement I'd still have no confidence Iowa's offense is gunna do much and a PSU blowout W would still give us a shot to cash an under ..
Anyway GOY's prompt me to look things up so here's what we have ... Last 10 yrs we see Iowa at home vs the conf big boys .. going under a hypo total of 45.5 woulda gone 12-5.. vs Wisco 4-2 .. PSU 3-0 .. Minny 3-2 ..Mich 2-0 .. OSU 0-1 the 55-24 point banger lol ... For all Iowa home conf games no final score has totaled over over 56 since 2020 .. and post covid we're seeing 45.5 is the highest total books have offered on any Iowa home conf gm .. that was vs Indy in '21 it went under never offered it that high again lol .. Outta those 18 games the avg total pre kick was like 38ish so some reason to expect Iowa in general to give us a lower total than 45.5 by kickoff .. flip side Penn State L2Y as their D improved we have road conf gms vs decent conf defense opponents a total under 45.5 woulda neen 4-1 vs the better defenses Ill, OSU, Mich St, Wisco, Minny .. Books put all those PSU totals mid 40's .. I suspect Knowles will have this D looking very stingy so thinking it thru I'd expect PSU totals are more likely to trend lower this year esp when we get this sorta road spot vs 2 big D's goin at it .. But most importantly ... it just feels like a sure shot lock down under and if we don't love it come kickoff prob good chance we can get out of it w out much trouble .. or find a decent middle ground ... if it goes higher what could it possibly get to?.. think maybe 50 if we get some wacky surprise circumstances .. even if it did hard to imagine we'd ever really be dead showing up to this one ..
Good luck UNI!
SSN WINS
AUBURN UNDER 8 -120 (CIRCA)
You can pick up 8 at -130 now at Circ and seeing mostly 7.5's for +odds everywhere else so limited offering .. won't opine on whether to grab the 7.5 + odds but if its juicy enough for ya might be worth a small stab .. and I don't think its a bad move layin the juice there .. My read on their camp is they likely have 3 QB's that might struggle to make an SEC Mid designation .. we had questions about Jackson Arnold last year with Oklahoma and while his situation was destined to for hardship with basically every starting WR injured before the season started it was still unnecessary for him to be sacked like 7,8,9 times in some of those games and totally kill any chances to win .. sacks are very much a QB decision / indecision making problem and JA has well proven himself not only to be sub 5 STAR material he's shown us he can't break out of adversity either .. Auburn currently has their best 4 WR's injured in pre-ssn .. it sounds like more of the cosmetic variety of injury so should have most if all back soon but I wonder whether or not the WR unit will all be on the ship next week as they sail into Baylor .. You see when Freeze is asked if all 3 QB's will play next week and he says Yes to that one .. I interpret that as the QB comp isin't going to plan with JA or someone else standing out .. then you see Freeze throw his visor at JA after he just holds the ball on a drill .. gunna get drilled again doing that .. Freeze threw Arnold under the bus saying there was a WR wide open down field lol .. gunna see bad optics for sure but its adding up now ..
We believe the WR unit to be among the top super elite units rivaling Ohio State's as theirs is almost certainly not as strong by losing Egbuka but Auburn's should but half empty guy could note this is still "in theory" in the sense of whether they can get elite level play / production out of the group .. See Mizzoo LY for details on how that can happen .. had an elite group certainly w 2 big NFL draft picks and decent supporting cast .. Obvi the QB is the big ? right now and its a big one .. and just looking over the roster what other units can we lean into pre-ssn .. OL is likely very good, better be improved from LY .. but RB does not have a sure thing MAJOR dude like the rest of the league .. UCONN RB xfer looked great there needs to be at least as good breaking tackles in the SEC .. hard to do .. 3 good RB's in the unit no sure thing DUDE .. TE unit is a ? .. Interior DL .. those 2 CUSA xfers MUST translate or yer rotating in true FR in a big hurry .. LB has some real questions .. Potential at safety .. Lot to like at DE//CB .. Not clear if '23 Groza semifinalist McPherson is back .. even if he is wouldn't surprise me if he's off .. missed FG's locked in 2 losses LY and was the diff in the TAMU W so a true 'kicker' for us might be they have iffy kicking again this yr ..
AUB SUCKS CONT'D ..
Schedule is real tricky my hope for Auburn this year was to get a flat 6 and go over .. but we were up to 7.5 quickly with some big portal hauls .. The schedule is just a nasty beast too .. 3 noncon free wins but nothing else is easy here .. need to go 6-3 from there to topple us .. Mizzoo's late first road spot is so awful I have to count on an Aub win .. might be the latest first road gm in modern CFB history and comes after potential big bama win in an EPIC home spot .. Zoo didn't fare so well in their ultra late first roadie last year and that was a week earlier than this one so .. fine give Aub a W here but its BIG trouble if they blow that one a week after the big UGA game .. path to 9 wins is to sweep Mizzoo plus @Baylor, @Ark, UK, Vandy and pull an upset vs UGA, Bama, @OU @TAMU .. I'd count TAMU as an L w the ugly spot .. we got Pavia 3-0 vs Freeze all W's on the road .. I wouldn't bet on Freeze to make it 1-3 w him on the road this time .. Ark and UK could be a little better than expected .. Aub can go 5-0 vs the must wins and we can still eek out a W .. think its likely they're 4-1 .. or worse .. in those games and we're resting easy w likely worst case being we just get our money back and real good chance to win ..
Good luck!
@BigTymePlayer25
Roster feels like a 'next year' team and anyone thinking this was the big go for it year had to be scratching their head wondering why Jax Arnold was leading the charge for them .. think its looking alot like Tenn with Jax the placeholder and we'll see the 5 star trotted out before long .. another clue is history of Freeze getting portal gem QB's at auburn .. still waitin .... then might cross my mind like maybe shoulda also grabbed some sure thing DL's not these CUSA guys, they seem okay but both better be rock solid if this is "the big year!" .... also a couple LB's too so yer not rotating true fr in all year .. and get a sure thing DUDE RB, maybe Uconn guy is legit SEC grade killer but he gotta put up more yards and be just as efficient as he was ... No doubt improved but think alot of rolls of the dice if they were banking on this being the year the whole tide turns .. TON of big rating true FR, RS FR, Sophs ready to bust in and have the base for next year including the QB.. just my opinion but 9 wins in '25 is not the goal .. major playoff run in '26 is .. Freeze knows they're still paying Harsin .. His buyout is 20 more mill .. think as long as there's not a mutiny and they look at least competitive he's back next year and then maybe you hope im wrong lol .. but not this year .. total stinker dude lol ..
CONF WIN FUTURES
ILLINOIS 38-1 (HERITAGE)
WASHINGTON 75-1 (ESPN)
Taking a couple long shot stabs on the B1G championship .. Wash prob 60-1 now and my move may be play 'make the champ game' at 18-1 or so if you can find that .. Win will likely require some painful hedging so if 75 isin't around I'd look to ease that pain a little and suspect end of the day if Wash can play Oregon at the end to punch a ticket you'll be happy hedging just that game at 18x not that gm and vs PSU? in the champ gm also .. Really wanted to bet both as a 'make the champ game' long shots and not deal w the final hedge by 75 for Wash and 38 for ILL were odds I could take ..
I think both have a high propensity to catch fire this year .. Illinois really like their schedule set up with the 4 BIG games early on .. they go B2B @Indy, USC but easy lead into that vs W.Mich and great spot to have @Purdue on the back end before MASSIVE OSU game .. they get a bye after before a trip @Wash .. any other setup and I'd say you have too likely of a loss on the schedule but really great there .. if they wade thru that 4-0 or 3-1 they have to avoid traps of Rutgers and tricky spot @Wisco but its a home stretch we expect them to handle .. Wash schedule is trickier with OSU at home after the Apple Cup .. I think the AC is a blowout win and maybe works as a great lead off to the MASSIVE home game vs the Buckeyes .. schedule is still very tricky after that .. what we like about Wash is the possibility that the D is well turned around this year and Demond Williams and this offense could be pure fire .. DW on a short list of who could go Johnny FB this year .. Liked Iowa too but I can't see them having enough of a pass game and schedule is mighty tough not typical B10 West division win effort needed from them this year ..
I Suspect with Penn State's schedule that they'll be the ones waiting at the end and very possible a situation where Illinois or Wash .. or both .. could have beaten OSU in those big home game spots w Buckeyes on the road and PSU losing to them in The Shoe, giving us a chance to not have the odds so stacked against us if /when we have to place a wager on the Nitneys ..
Long shot has a chance this year as Bucks with 2 very tough games in conference and 2 possibly 3 more very tricky spots on a schedule that looks very tough to me and already posted what I think of the overall prospects for this year.. think they can lose 2 conf games this year .. Oregon also with a more difficult schedule this year IMO and we know them to possibly be a bit WR deficient .. could cost them the wrong game .. I think they lose to Penn State in Happy Valley and and there's quite a few more MASSIVE games on their schedule .. Michigan also very tough schedule I do think they have a chance to get in but for the odds I really like our picks to maybe land us a decent payday ... A huge key to getting a longer shot in is the numerous quality teams in the MID of the B10 who can pull upsets and help clear a path for us .. Iowa plays Indy, PSU, Oreg all at home .. Indy with @Oreg, @PSU .. USC vs Mich and @Oregon is a HUUUGE game for them .. Nebraska vs Mich, @PSU .. Hopefully PSU, ILL and Wash can gang up on the Buckeyes .. tough games only half the story with just wildly tough spots created in the whole mele .. Even Minny, Rutgers, Wisco will have some fortitude to either catch a team in a bad spot and pull a big W or just help create a nasty trap .. I doubt UCLA or Mich State help us much but I haven't counted either out yet .. I only have MD, NU and Purdue as true pushovers this year .. all a big knockout game .. gimme the longer odds teams with the best chance .. good luck!!
SMALLER
OHIO ST / PENN ST +4.5 WK10 (MGM)
Popped at MGM at the 4.5 spot .. seeing 3.5 at FAN .. 4.5 feels pretty good. Haven't seen better. Shout out to TD21 who reminded me of this one .. been on my radar .. hit PSU home vs Oregon as a BP right away total boomer at -4 is nearing a TD now .. spot is so great for that one .. and can do smaller for this one w Nitneys catching more than a couple good key numbers .. In some ways I like this better because James can extend his BIG GAME losing streak and still got some room to win this one lol ..
Not trying to bully the buckeyes all pre-ssn either I just think they're likely overrated heading into the ssn .. But its quite a testament to the program that in this NIL era you conclude the multi year natty journey with an epic run and big win, hit all sorta program highs with your games won down the stretch and esp in terms of the EPIC-NESS of that roster .. then lose a giant portion of the production with high rated NFL talent spilling out of every unit .. then not seek major replacements .. and still be #1 in the pre-ssn models and have that validated by the sportsbook natty odds .. its not just the helmet that's driving this but of course thats part of it lol .. I suspect if we saw PSU end up winning the natty last year and they lost all that OSU did, the 2 elite RB's for one but all the others too, all the coaching changes new QB etc etc etc etc .. even w OSU's exact same roster and coaches and schedule etc I suspect be outside the top 10 and nobody would believe they could repeat .. But for OSU even I wouldn't count the Buckeyes out of a major playoff run and legit natty shot .. I think this team will take a bit of time to get to that level .. lot can happen 4 months from now .. and what OSU gets by not taking in a massive portal haul trying to RELOAD right away is still have a shot this year while saving a SH!T LOAD of money and show up next year with a potential multi-year KING-MAKING roster.. So all respect to Bucks and the calculation (I think) they're making ..
My only hangup on this one .. Besides the obvious Big Game James BOMB trend.. is we play it 11/1 when OSU might be that diff team with the identity and gameplan to simply wreck any other team's game plan with the top 2 best players in CFB .. late year matchup in the shoe is a much bigger worry for me backing BGJ than if they had this earlier in the season .. my opinion .. But we're still taking 4.5 and think PSU with the complete team out the gate might also just be too strong by season's end and have too many ways to thwart whatever the bucks throw at em .. besides PSU's team is just basically all back, the main keys for PSU this year is we have a sure thing OC dude in Andy Kotelnicki .. just an offensive mad scientist and we saw his creation at TE last year.. Frankenstein 1.0 may have gone pro but I suspect AK has some freaks to work with once again .. addressing the multi-years long WR issues .. if there's one knock on AK its that there just wasn't an answer that involved figuring out how to get the WR's they had to produce on the big stage .. cost em a ticket to the natty IMO .. topping it all was the bold move of out-paying buckeyes for Jim Knowles, the best DC in football .. by far .. Jim Knowles hire is such a kicker for playing PSU this year .. catching 4.5 with them .. takin it ..
SMALLER
HAWAII / ARIZONA UNDER 57 (CIRCA)
It's a bigger play but droppin the 'smaller' designation for record keeping because the crux of the play is that I think this one could close very low whereas the actual outcome might have a little more variance to it .. But given the circumstances I do like our chances the under comes in ..
I feel good about being lower than expected but reality is AZ's offense should be much more explosive compared to Stanford's and creates a bit of uncertainty what we'll end up getting results-wise .. could just end up playing for a middle and not take on the risk of being flat out wrong etc...
Anyway we saw a few things in the Hawaii / Stan game we like to give us the lower total expectations .. very dink n dunk pass offense 5.5yds /att, well under 10 yds / completion .. Stanford with 4 sacks over 9 pressures .. close tight nit game the run game had a few good plays but not very effective end of the day ~200 passing 100 rushing .. Flip side Hawaii's coverage held Stan to 15/30 for 109 yds got a few pressures .. didn't get run over as stan tried to run the ball .. The wonder is whether that holds up next week vs a pretty decidedly diff style of offense but overall performance was one to hang their hats on .. Scoring is a little misleading as Stan got a free TD their offense only scored 13 vs them .. Big part of that was Stanford's just unbelievably slow offense and we don't expect AZ will roll like that .. But Hawaii could certainly make drives difficult on the Cats and certainly themselves vs another P4 defense ..
Other things to like is Hawaii found a reliable FG kicker and easy decision to take 3 in the red zone .. Even more impressive was the CANNON LEG Hawaii's 29 year old Aussie punter has .. Kangaroo Stu pinned em deep from well in his own territory multiple times and wasn't just wind he sent BOOMERS in both directions.. Certified rocket launcher is a LEGIT weapon that can have major impacts on totals ..
The BIG REASON we're taking a stab esp now is Haw QB Alejando took a really big hit and played thru a clear ankle injury .. my sense is good chance it's still impacting him all this week and prob next staturday .. I can understand the team keeping him in that BIG winnable home game .. but I struggle to see the value of risking yer ace QB next week when clearly Stan's pass rush was able to get to him .. wouldn't surprise me if they hold him out .. Alejado fully healthy I still expect a total to be closer to average scoring 55/56 .. think speculators will send it down to 53 anyway .. if he's out this feels like the total should move closer to 50 maybe less as backup QB is a total unknown .. Good Luck!
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