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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:



As long as Saban is running the show Alabama will be exceptionally talented, and will be a threat to win it all every season.

That said, Alabama's likely starting QB hasn't even taken a single snap in practice yet much less a game.  All of Alabama's previous newbie QBs under Saban had been in the system a few years, so they were much more prepared for the starting role than Coker.  Coker may end up being better than his predecessors, but to believe he is capable of leading his team to a 4 TD victory over a respectable West Virginia team in week 1 is a huge stretch IMO.  That is particularly so given that the offensive game plan will likely be extremely dumbed down like it was against Virginia Tech last season, albeit for different reasons.  A nationally televised game in the Georgia Dome is a tough spot for guy to be making his first collegiate start, I don't care how talented he is.

I expect a very vanilla and boring game with Alabama doing just enough to win the game, and no more.  At this point (and maybe my opinion will change before kickoff but I doubt it), I think laying more than about 13.5 or so with Alabama is insane.













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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:



As long as Saban is running the show Alabama will be exceptionally talented, and will be a threat to win it all every season.

That said, Alabama's likely starting QB hasn't even taken a single snap in practice yet much less a game.  All of Alabama's previous newbie QBs under Saban had been in the system a few years, so they were much more prepared for the starting role than Coker.  Coker may end up being better than his predecessors, but to believe he is capable of leading his team to a 4 TD victory over a respectable West Virginia team in week 1 is a huge stretch IMO.  That is particularly so given that the offensive game plan will likely be extremely dumbed down like it was against Virginia Tech last season, albeit for different reasons.  A nationally televised game in the Georgia Dome is a tough spot for guy to be making his first collegiate start, I don't care how talented he is.

I expect a very vanilla and boring game with Alabama doing just enough to win the game, and no more.  At this point (and maybe my opinion will change before kickoff but I doubt it), I think laying more than about 13.5 or so with Alabama is insane.




what in the hell is this?..........

THIS simply won't do FREAK.....those blowhard p-u-s-s-i-e-s at ctg soften you up man?
  *trust me.....your opinion will change in a big way before KO...

THIS time...it may be a blow-out

  *transcendent HC like Saban know WHEN / WHAT buttons to push each week

Usually.....WEEK 1  the last thing he wants is this huge / emotional blowout.....where his players walk off the field fat and happy...feeling like they have little room for improvement
  *much better to show an (apparent) weakness or two where he can chew on their a-s-s for awhile
  *yep..he carried it too far with Va Tech....he assumed his OL could impose their will and he was wrong....but as you noticed he still didn't get away from an incredibly vanilla game plan...no adjustments or audibles really....even letting his QB take way too many hits....the practices for the OL the following weeks had to be gruesome

HOWEVER...this year off a 'disappointing' 11-2...an embarrassing bowl loss to OU....and the piss poor start .....he actually needs a statement here......one might think

But....the Freak is right ...we can expect yet another very vanilla game plan.....with Kiffin allowed a wrinkle or two maybe
  *but here...WV should offer little resistance

WHY?.....because where Bama has a question mark or two..
the Couch Burners have SERIOUS issues 

Their D is getting worse each year under DH.....big time
  *in 2010 (he started in 2011) they had the #3 D in the nation
   allowing 13 pts / 261 yds /4.2 per play / 2.7 per rush / 45 sacks
  *3 years later?...#95 D....33 pts / 455 yds / 4.4 per rush / 5.9 per
      play / 16 sacks
   ** ironically....his mighty O has returned to 2010 levels once
       the players (he didn't recruit) had left...somewhere that
       Bill Stewart is smiling....Oliver Luck not so much......

BAMA?...their D is super tough every year and that won't change
  *but their O.....struggling?

It may not seem so at times ....but actually they have improved (or become more effective / efficient) every single year since Saban arrived in 2007.....in most every single category (except pass protection .....shaky in 2012 and 2010)
  *beginning in 2007
   ptts/game - 27 > 30 > 32 > 35 > 35 > 38 > 38
   yds/play - 5.1 > 5.5 > 6.0 > 7.0 > 6.5 > 6.9 > 7.1
   $$ yds / rush- 4.0 > 4.6 > 5.0 > 5.1 > 5.5 > 5.6 > 5.8                  
KEY here......is that Bama should be able to run at will vs a DL that was pushed around by Kansas...but since lost it's best player in Clarke.....plus they bring no heat (#113 LY)
  *they also lose their best DB....from one of the nation's worst pass D's....so tough to see Coker or whomever struggling vs these boys


Bama should be favored by around 27 points....so the line is correct...
  *note -  WV was about the nation's 75th best team LY....about the same as a better Sun Belt team (Troy...ULM...Ark St)
  *6/7 starters plus that Clint Trickett tells me they're about the same.....I would expect a little better maybe as Dana has gotta be feeling the heat

Maybe a little halftime or in-game for me....as we will know VERY quickly the story here...otherwise it would have to be Bama or nothing....also keep in mind Saban always finds a way to cover in this spot (early / toughest non-conf opponent)....6-0 ATS
 
  *this line might drop some once fall camp begins....
    Saban wisely telling the media how bad they look....expect glowing reports from Morgantown........

 
  



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Posted: #28

I have a pretty good idea that West Virginia is horrible, but I have not even begun to look at them yet.  Been super busy so I'm a bit behind.

Saban has always taken a very conservative approach with new QBs.  See the 2009 week 1 game versus Virginia Tech (Greg McElroy - 34-24 final score), and the week 2 game at Happy Valley versus Penn State (AJ McCarron - 27-11 final score).  And keep in mind that both McElroy and McCarron had spent several years in backup roles, while Jacob Coker hasn't even taken a snap in practice yet.

Maybe Coker will be great.  Maybe he won't.  The point is nobody knows.  It's all pure conjecture at this point.  I think the one thing we can hang our hat on at this point is that Saban knows the only way he can lose this game is by making a ton of mistakes.  Thus, he will take a very conservative, no-mistake approach in this game, and that doesn't lend to covering a monster spread.

As usual I will have the opportunity to view several practices, so I'll have a much better idea about Coker when I see him in action.  The one thing we do know for sure is that Coker will be surrounded by an abundance of offensive talent.

Early in the football season I look to back stable teams - teams with returning QBs and returning coaching staffs.  I do so because their week 1 performances are more predictable.  With Alabama's QB situation such as it is, I would not lay 24+ with them in week one against anyone at this point.  There has to better week 1 plays than this.

 

 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

I have a pretty good idea that West Virginia is horrible, but I have not even begun to look at them yet.  Been super busy so I'm a bit behind.

Saban has always taken a very conservative approach with new QBs.  See the 2009 week 1 game versus Virginia Tech (Greg McElroy - 34-24 final score), and the week 2 game at Happy Valley versus Penn State (AJ McCarron - 27-11 final score).  And keep in mind that both McElroy and McCarron had spent several years in backup roles, while Jacob Coker hasn't even taken a snap in practice yet.

Maybe Coker will be great.  Maybe he won't.  The point is nobody knows.  It's all pure conjecture at this point.  I think the one thing we can hang our hat on at this point is that Saban knows the only way he can lose this game is by making a ton of mistakes.  Thus, he will take a very conservative, no-mistake approach in this game, and that doesn't lend to covering a monster spread.

As usual I will have the opportunity to view several practices, so I'll have a much better idea about Coker when I see him in action.  The one thing we do know for sure is that Coker will be surrounded by an abundance of offensive talent.

Early in the football season I look to back stable teams - teams with returning QBs and returning coaching staffs.  I do so because their week 1 performances are more predictable.  With Alabama's QB situation such as it is, I would not lay 24+ with them in week one against anyone at this point.  There has to better week 1 plays than this.

 









Jimmy, How good will Bama's OLine be this year ?
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Posted: #30

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:









Jimmy, How good will Bama's OLine be this year ?

They lose the most important position on the offensive line . . . the left tackle.  Cyrus Kouandjio, who was once thought to be a lock to be a top 10 draft pick saw his stock tumble to the 2nd round after he struggled much of last season.  Alabama also losses their rock at RG Anthony Steen.  I'm a little surprised no NFL team took a late round gander on Steen.

Alabama had a ridiculous offensive line recruiting class this past season, but true freshman usually don't make a big impact their first season.  The crown jewel of the offensive line haul was 5* LT Cameron Robinson.  I'm certain that Robinson will work his way to being the starting left tackle at some point this season.  The question is will he be the starting left tackle against West Virginia in week 1.  And if he is, how many mistakes will he make?  Couple that with a new QB who probably won't be that comfortable running the offense, and it's not difficult to see where some miscommunication errors could occur.

Alabama's offense line received a lot of criticism last season, but numbers actually improved in rushing yards and sacks allowed, so the situation wasn't nearly as dire as some would have you believe.

I would anticipate the starting offensive line to look something like this:

LT - Cam Robinson (tFr.)  It's still too early to call who will spell Robinson at this point, but right now I would say look for sophomore TE Brandon Greene

LG - Arie Kouandjio (Sr.) - expect Kouandjio to be pushed by JUCO transfer Dominick Jackson

C - Ryan Kelly (Jr.)

RG - Leon Brown (Sr.)

RT-  Austin Shepherd (Sr.)

Talented  sophomore Grant Hill has the look of the #6 guy right now.

With the exception of the left tackle position, this looks to be a solid and experienced group.  I also expect to see more continuity from the line in Mario Cristobal's second season leading that group.  At some point this season I expect Cam Robinson to also be a solid SEC left tackle, the question is when?  Will he be ready for SEC competition in week 4 when Alabama faces one of the best defenses in the conference?  You can bet Will Muschamp will test the youngster in that game.

Alabama will do enough to get past West Virginia in week 1.  I'm just not real confident they'll do much more than that.

 

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

They lose the most important position on the offensive line . . . the left tackle.  Cyrus Kouandjio, who was once thought to be a lock to be a top 10 draft pick saw his stock tumble to the 2nd round after he struggled much of last season.  Alabama also losses their rock at RG Anthony Steen.  I'm a little surprised no NFL team took a late round gander on Steen.

Alabama had a ridiculous offensive line recruiting class this past season, but true freshman usually don't make a big impact their first season.  The crown jewel of the offensive line haul was 5* LT Cameron Robinson.  I'm certain that Robinson will work his way to being the starting left tackle at some point this season.  The question is will he be the starting left tackle against West Virginia in week 1.  And if he is, how many mistakes will he make?  Couple that with a new QB who probably won't be that comfortable running the offense, and it's not difficult to see where some miscommunication errors could occur.

Alabama's offense line received a lot of criticism last season, but numbers actually improved in rushing yards and sacks allowed, so the situation wasn't nearly as dire as some would have you believe.

I would anticipate the starting offensive line to look something like this:

LT - Cam Robinson (tFr.)  It's still too early to call who will spell Robinson at this point, but right now I would say look for sophomore TE Brandon Greene

LG - Arie Kouandjio (Sr.) - expect Kouandjio to be pushed by JUCO transfer Dominick Jackson

C - Ryan Kelly (Jr.)

RG - Leon Brown (Sr.)

RT-  Austin Shepherd (Sr.)

Talented  sophomore Grant Hill has the look of the #6 guy right now.

With the exception of the left tackle position, this looks to be a solid and experienced group.  I also expect to see more continuity from the line in Mario Cristobal's second season leading that group.  At some point this season I expect Cam Robinson to also be a solid SEC left tackle, the question is when?  Will he be ready for SEC competition in week 4 when Alabama faces one of the best defenses in the conference?  You can bet Will Muschamp will test the youngster in that game.

Alabama will do enough to get past West Virginia in week 1.  I'm just not real confident they'll do much more than that.

 











Thanks for your perspective. I appreciate it. I'm going to
pass on this one unless the books are kind enough to
offer it at - 17
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Posted: #32

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Thanks for your perspective. I appreciate it. I'm going to
pass on this one unless the books are kind enough to
offer it at - 17


I will most likely be on the Mountaineers if I can get it around 24 or so.

I usually pick out some spots where I really like Alabama before the season starts, but because they are breaking in a new QB, I don't really see anything that sticks out.  If Alabama can get some good QB play, and the offense and defense live up their potentials, that may change as the season progresses.  The only thing that really sticks out to me is the UNDER in the Florida/Alabama game.

Best of luck to you this season.

 

 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

I will most likely be on the Mountaineers if I can get it around 24 or so.

I usually pick out some spots where I really like Alabama before the season starts, but because they are breaking in a new QB, I don't really see anything that sticks out.  If Alabama can get some good QB play, and the offense and defense live up their potentials, that may change as the season progresses.  The only thing that really sticks out to me is the UNDER in the Florida/Alabama game.

Best of luck to you this season.

 









Jimmy, Thanks , Bud..As you know I've been on Bama
              in week 1 the last two years as well. I believe
              that team stability is a of prime importance in
              selecting a team to wager in weeks 1 thru 3.It
              provides the bettor a greater chance for
              success.

             Best of Luck to you as well this season 

             P.S. If you can, please give us some insight on
             how Coker looks when he begins to practice.
             Thanks , Bud.

             Jimmy     

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Posted: #34
Jimmy, you gonna be around posting picks this year? Please say yes!
 
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Posted: #35
Betonline has the total up on this one at  57


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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by BDub2308:

Jimmy, you gonna be around posting picks this year? Please say yes!


It looks like it will be a pretty busy fall, so I doubt i will have the time to post on a regular basis.  I don't want to post wild guesses.


 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Betonline has the total up on this one at  57




So odds makers have this pegged as a 42-15 type of score???  I don't see it.  I thought we would see a total of something closer 51 or 52. I think 2 TDs is about right for West Virginia, but I don't see Alabama getting into the 40s with what most likely be a very conservative offensive approach.

I lean the points and UNDER at this point.  In fact I lean points in most of the Week 1 games I've looked at so far.




 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:



So odds makers have this pegged as a 42-15 type of score???  I don't see it.  I thought we would see a total of something closer 51 or 52. I think 2 TDs is about right for West Virginia, but I don't see Alabama getting into the 40s with what most likely be a very conservative offensive approach.

I lean the points and UNDER at this point.  In fact I lean points in most of the Week 1 games I've looked at so far.










Hey Bud, I'm inclined to just lay off of this one . I do want
to watch it though to see how Coker looks and what
kind of game Kiffin calls relative to down and distance,
hopefully it will show me what kind of confidence he's
got in his new QB.

Jimmy   

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Posted: #39

Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:



It looks like it will be a pretty busy fall, so I doubt i will have the time to post on a regular basis.  I don't want to post wild guesses.


Surely you can find 15 or 20 minutes thurs-saturday morning to make a quick post and tell us what you think.

I know youve been here almost as long as me and it does get old with the newbie trolls every year. However, there are A LOT of people that respect your opinion (esp on Bama games), and that includes me. Hell, if you post a play on the game I dont bother capping it, not even for a second. I'll will usually auto tail you, unless of course Ive already played the other way, then I just frown. For every clown that comes in your thread and gets inder your skin, there are 100 guys that dont post but absolutely LOVE to see what you think.

Really hoping to see you around this year brother.

 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Surely you can find 15 or 20 minutes thurs-saturday morning to make a quick post and tell us what you think.

I know youve been here almost as long as me and it does get old with the newbie trolls every year. However, there are A LOT of people that respect your opinion (esp on Bama games), and that includes me. Hell, if you post a play on the game I dont bother capping it, not even for a second. I'll will usually auto tail you, unless of course Ive already played the other way, then I just frown. For every clown that comes in your thread and gets inder your skin, there are 100 guys that dont post but absolutely LOVE to see what you think.

Really hoping to see you around this year brother.

I appreciate the kind words Train!!!

 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Surely you can find 15 or 20 minutes thurs-saturday morning to make a quick post and tell us what you think.

I know youve been here almost as long as me and it does get old with the newbie trolls every year. However, there are A LOT of people that respect your opinion (esp on Bama games), and that includes me. Hell, if you post a play on the game I dont bother capping it, not even for a second. I'll will usually auto tail you, unless of course Ive already played the other way, then I just frown. For every clown that comes in your thread and gets inder your skin, there are 100 guys that dont post but absolutely LOVE to see what you think.

Really hoping to see you around this year brother.









I'll second that . Jimmy , your insight is very much appreciated.Thanks Bud.






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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Surely you can find 15 or 20 minutes thurs-saturday morning to make a quick post and tell us what you think.

I know youve been here almost as long as me and it does get old with the newbie trolls every year. However, there are A LOT of people that respect your opinion (esp on Bama games), and that includes me. Hell, if you post a play on the game I dont bother capping it, not even for a second. I'll will usually auto tail you, unless of course Ive already played the other way, then I just frown. For every clown that comes in your thread and gets inder your skin, there are 100 guys that dont post but absolutely LOVE to see what you think.

Really hoping to see you around this year brother.

With Train on Wise on this...stay with us Jimmy and show us the way!

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Posted: #43
good to see ya Jimmy



 
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Posted: #44
Good to hear from you JDF hope you can give us some feedback on this game before the season kicks off GL this season
 
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Posted: #45

Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:



As long as Saban is running the show Alabama will be exceptionally talented, and will be a threat to win it all every season.

That said, Alabama's likely starting QB hasn't even taken a single snap in practice yet much less a game.  All of Alabama's previous newbie QBs under Saban had been in the system a few years, so they were much more prepared for the starting role than Coker.  Coker may end up being better than his predecessors, but to believe he is capable of leading his team to a 4 TD victory over a respectable West Virginia team in week 1 is a huge stretch IMO.  That is particularly so given that the offensive game plan will likely be extremely dumbed down like it was against Virginia Tech last season, albeit for different reasons.  A nationally televised game in the Georgia Dome is a tough spot for guy to be making his first collegiate start, I don't care how talented he is.

I expect a very vanilla and boring game with Alabama doing just enough to win the game, and no more.  At this point (and maybe my opinion will change before kickoff but I doubt it), I think laying more than about 13.5 or so with Alabama is insane.




 

Jimmy, but in all do respect, doesn't some of the value evaluation come with the quality of the opponent.   WVU is ranked by pundits as a bottom 3 team in the Big XII (which has only 10 teams) ahead of only iowa st and lowly Kansas.   The game is at a neutral location and not in Morgantown.   this neutral location will probably be 70%  Bama and thus a quasi home game for the Tide.   Bama has 5 star rated players at almost every position, whether they have experience or not.   Holgerson is hot seat yes, but sparing the early season competitive game at OU last season, they were pathetic on the road.  (2-4 ATS in 2013).   Sure, WVU has been preparing for Bama all Spring and will during fall camp.  But, so has Bama, and Bama has superior coaching.   Trickett is the returning starting for the neers, but only completed 52% of his passes for 1700 yards (7 TD and 7 INTS).   Finally, WVU was 4-8 last season with wins over William and Mary, lowly Ga St, weakened by injuries TCU, and an Ok St that obviously had a let down at Morgantown (I watched the game, and yes they were out hustled because they took WV lightly.)      Bama is coming off an unprecedented two losses, so you know they will be motivated,     Yes, Coker, is inexperienced, but he was higher regarded coming out of HS than Trickett.  The one thing that concerns me a bit is Kiffens influence, but I want to believe that by getting canned midseason from USC, he will be very motivated to perform at a high level (and also be controlled by their devil of a HC).  WVU will trot out Shell the Tr from Pitt who was very highly rated coming out of HS (#2).   But, he has not played since 2012, and out of the gate, against a hungry Bama team, I bet he will be limited.   WVU''s only chance to upset is do what OU did in the bowl game.   I bet Saban and his players have been trying to fix that problem since early spring and will be ready.    WVU is no OU when it comes to talent, and that includes QB.

I have heard you and other (who have supported Bama in the past) are down on them to start the season.    I don't know about you, but I would equate WVU's talent and motivation to be more like Bama opponents Kentucky, Arkansas, and Tennessee last season in consecutive weeks.   And I believe you know the outcome and which teach covered ATS in those matchups...

I don't want to be a delusional square in this Bama v WV matchup.    I don't want to assume that Bama will show up and score its normal 45 points against a patsy from major conference on a neutral field.   I am trying to be objective and evaluate all parameters of all the games that I will select.     It will be very difficult to go against you, Wise, BA, Train, Thorpe and other solid cappers on this side.   But, from a motivation, talent differential, coaching, and other factors, I see a significantly greater MOV than 13.5 points for Bama.    I also see vanilla and controlled and methodical Bama O, and a nasty, hungry and talented shutdown D.    I think the Bama players and coaches are p^ssed that the media pundits and others are saying that Bama will have a down year by their standards.    Bama just reloads, and I think over the offseason they have addressed the weaknesses in which they were exposed against OU, and Auburn.

Alabama 45

West Virginia 13

I will appreciate your perspectives...

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Posted: #46
in  addition, that Va Tech D, as part of a team that almost covered in game 1 last season under similar circumstances, has an excellent D (though marginal).   Bama was coming off a NC, and contrary to what they said, may have lacked motivation.   They have similar talent and exponentially more motivation.   WVU's D gave up 34 points a game last season and 38 ppg in 2012.   How many points do you believe they will surrender to a good (even average at worst) Bama O...and for WVU to be competitive, that implies they will have to score a lot of points against this Bama D.   I am sorry, I just don't see that happening...
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

in  addition, that Va Tech D, as part of a team that almost covered in game 1 last season under similar circumstances, has an excellent D (though marginal).   Bama was coming off a NC, and contrary to what they said, may have lacked motivation.   They have similar talent and exponentially more motivation.   WVU's D gave up 34 points a game last season and 38 ppg in 2012.   How many points do you believe they will surrender to a good (even average at worst) Bama O...and for WVU to be competitive, that implies they will have to score a lot of points against this Bama D.   I am sorry, I just don't see that happening...





LH, This is week 1 of a long season. My preference is to
be selective and give myself the maximum opportunity
to be successful on every wager I make. My preference
is to pass on this one due to unknowns on the Tide's
offense and focus on matchups that leave little to opinion
and more to teams that have more stability across their
roster, QB , and coaching / coords. It provides for a more
reliable assessment as to the likely outcome of the game
from a wagering perspective.

LH 
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Posted: #48
Bama will pound the rock down West Va throat with their two stud running backs the 3-4 d will remain solid, take the under Saban does not like running the scoreboard up on teams.
 
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Posted: #49
madcoachone - oh yes, he does...against the major conferences he most certainly does.   he will keep scoring, and wvu will continue to try...I have not decided if I will select bama as one of my final picks, but if I select a winner ats in this game, it will be bama or nothing...
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Posted: #50
Plays I like

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