Everyone knows I don't buy into the line movement conspiracy stuff, but you never know.
I do beleive that what has always been the business model of every sportsbook is that they want 50/50 on each side and make their millions on the VIG.
To me all this is saying is there is still more money on TCU than Wisconsin and they are trying to get to 50/50 on both sides.
Vegas doesn't want to "win or lose" against the gambler they want 50/50 so I just don't beleive they are messing with the line.
Finally nobody knows if it's public money or sharp money....you really don't. There are no records released of "who" played or "how much" someone played. In fact I would be willing to bet that the % that they show of who is on what line is another mind fuck they put out there to heard the sheep towards where they want them to get 50/50.
I'm also on Wisconsin so of course I want you to be wrong
Gilberto, I respect you very much and was admittedly a little worried when I saw you go on Wisky.
But, in all reality, from that early line movement, it was def. sharps making that line move, not the public. So, if there is STILL more money on TCU then I'd rather ride with the "sharps" than the public, simple as that.
Everyone knows I don't buy into the line movement conspiracy stuff, but you never know.
I do beleive that what has always been the business model of every sportsbook is that they want 50/50 on each side and make their millions on the VIG.
To me all this is saying is there is still more money on TCU than Wisconsin and they are trying to get to 50/50 on both sides.
Vegas doesn't want to "win or lose" against the gambler they want 50/50 so I just don't beleive they are messing with the line.
Finally nobody knows if it's public money or sharp money....you really don't. There are no records released of "who" played or "how much" someone played. In fact I would be willing to bet that the % that they show of who is on what line is another mind fuck they put out there to heard the sheep towards where they want them to get 50/50.
I'm also on Wisconsin so of course I want you to be wrong
Gilberto, I respect you very much and was admittedly a little worried when I saw you go on Wisky.
But, in all reality, from that early line movement, it was def. sharps making that line move, not the public. So, if there is STILL more money on TCU then I'd rather ride with the "sharps" than the public, simple as that.
your 77% isnt accurate most of the action at the books out here is on TCU-3 the books need Wisc+3
Ahh, I love threads were guys come in here and throw around percentages. What's even worse is guys believe them eventhough they provide no information as to where they got their numbers.....
If your trying to sale something, have something to back it up with.
your 77% isnt accurate most of the action at the books out here is on TCU-3 the books need Wisc+3
Ahh, I love threads were guys come in here and throw around percentages. What's even worse is guys believe them eventhough they provide no information as to where they got their numbers.....
If your trying to sale something, have something to back it up with.
They should make a movie on this subject in which, in the end, one singular man, let's make him the richest man on the planet, is actually in control of EVERY sporting event and controls the billions of dollars of $$$ wagered.
As for reality, still not buying any of this. Vegas makes money when they have as close to a 50/50 split as possible. Period.
They should make a movie on this subject in which, in the end, one singular man, let's make him the richest man on the planet, is actually in control of EVERY sporting event and controls the billions of dollars of $$$ wagered.
As for reality, still not buying any of this. Vegas makes money when they have as close to a 50/50 split as possible. Period.
it's not almost as good as RLM... it is the only RLM that IS any good... public dog but the line goes the other direction... you never bet against that scenario, ever!
it's not almost as good as RLM... it is the only RLM that IS any good... public dog but the line goes the other direction... you never bet against that scenario, ever!
Ahh, I love threads were guys come in here and throw around percentages. What's even worse is guys believe them eventhough they provide no information as to where they got their numbers.....
If your trying to sale something, have something to back it up with.
He provided a link to where he's getting his number in a later post.
Ahh, I love threads were guys come in here and throw around percentages. What's even worse is guys believe them eventhough they provide no information as to where they got their numbers.....
If your trying to sale something, have something to back it up with.
He provided a link to where he's getting his number in a later post.
it's not almost as good as RLM... it is the only RLM that IS any good... public dog but the line goes the other direction... you never bet against that scenario, ever!
it's not almost as good as RLM... it is the only RLM that IS any good... public dog but the line goes the other direction... you never bet against that scenario, ever!
Gilberto, I respect you very much and was admittedly a little worried when I saw you go on Wisky.
But, in all reality, from that early line movement, it was def. sharps making that line move, not the public. So, if there is STILL more money on TCU then I'd rather ride with the "sharps" than the public, simple as that.
Jrose, respect right back at you You very well may be right, just my personality type makes me have to see proof to believe in conspiracies, although we all know the NBA refs have thrown games and fucked the lines up......but then again I needed Donahugh to be convicted and do jail time for me to believe
Good luck on the game it should be a great one either way.....power against speed is always fun to watch.
Gilberto, I respect you very much and was admittedly a little worried when I saw you go on Wisky.
But, in all reality, from that early line movement, it was def. sharps making that line move, not the public. So, if there is STILL more money on TCU then I'd rather ride with the "sharps" than the public, simple as that.
Jrose, respect right back at you You very well may be right, just my personality type makes me have to see proof to believe in conspiracies, although we all know the NBA refs have thrown games and fucked the lines up......but then again I needed Donahugh to be convicted and do jail time for me to believe
Good luck on the game it should be a great one either way.....power against speed is always fun to watch.
you didn't get what i was saying... it's not almost as good... it's better... reverse-line movement where the favorite is getting 85% but the line drops a shade really doesn't mean squat... playing that over the long haul is about a 50/50 proposition... but RLM where the public is on the dog, and the line goes the other way, is the golden goose...
the reason is, Vegas doesn't really want to see 50/50 in terms of those percentages... they want to see about 60/40 on the favorite... usually, when a dog is getting more than 50%, they will quickly drop the line until it starts to get closer to 60/40... when they don't drop the line, despite getting heavy play on the dog, it means they are taking a stand on the favorite...
you didn't get what i was saying... it's not almost as good... it's better... reverse-line movement where the favorite is getting 85% but the line drops a shade really doesn't mean squat... playing that over the long haul is about a 50/50 proposition... but RLM where the public is on the dog, and the line goes the other way, is the golden goose...
the reason is, Vegas doesn't really want to see 50/50 in terms of those percentages... they want to see about 60/40 on the favorite... usually, when a dog is getting more than 50%, they will quickly drop the line until it starts to get closer to 60/40... when they don't drop the line, despite getting heavy play on the dog, it means they are taking a stand on the favorite...
you didn't get what i was saying... it's not almost as good... it's better... reverse-line movement where the favorite is getting 85% but the line drops a shade really doesn't mean squat... playing that over the long haul is about a 50/50 proposition... but RLM where the public is on the dog, and the line goes the other way, is the golden goose...
the reason is, Vegas doesn't really want to see 50/50 in terms of those percentages... they want to see about 60/40 on the favorite... usually, when a dog is getting more than 50%, they will quickly drop the line until it starts to get closer to 60/40... when they don't drop the line, despite getting heavy play on the dog, it means they are taking a stand on the favorite...
you didn't get what i was saying... it's not almost as good... it's better... reverse-line movement where the favorite is getting 85% but the line drops a shade really doesn't mean squat... playing that over the long haul is about a 50/50 proposition... but RLM where the public is on the dog, and the line goes the other way, is the golden goose...
the reason is, Vegas doesn't really want to see 50/50 in terms of those percentages... they want to see about 60/40 on the favorite... usually, when a dog is getting more than 50%, they will quickly drop the line until it starts to get closer to 60/40... when they don't drop the line, despite getting heavy play on the dog, it means they are taking a stand on the favorite...
you didn't get what i was saying... it's not almost as good... it's better... reverse-line movement where the favorite is getting 85% but the line drops a shade really doesn't mean squat... playing that over the long haul is about a 50/50 proposition... but RLM where the public is on the dog, and the line goes the other way, is the golden goose...
the reason is, Vegas doesn't really want to see 50/50 in terms of those percentages... they want to see about 60/40 on the favorite... usually, when a dog is getting more than 50%, they will quickly drop the line until it starts to get closer to 60/40... when they don't drop the line, despite getting heavy play on the dog, it means they are taking a stand on the favorite...
Vegas definitely doesnt want 50/50 action on every game. Sometimes they take a position on a game and hope for money to pour in on one side. I think this is the case here. You have a BCS school who looked unreal on offense in the second half of the season vs a non BCS school who plays nobody. Joe Public thinks this is easy, Wisconsin is getting a FG! Not so fast my friend!
TCU is very underrated and sharps love their stats on off and def in yards per play. Wisconsin wont be able to throw the ball very well and I think TCU could expose their lack of team speed. On Espn Insider they had a sharp say that he has the pure rating on this game at TCU -4.5 pts.
you didn't get what i was saying... it's not almost as good... it's better... reverse-line movement where the favorite is getting 85% but the line drops a shade really doesn't mean squat... playing that over the long haul is about a 50/50 proposition... but RLM where the public is on the dog, and the line goes the other way, is the golden goose...
the reason is, Vegas doesn't really want to see 50/50 in terms of those percentages... they want to see about 60/40 on the favorite... usually, when a dog is getting more than 50%, they will quickly drop the line until it starts to get closer to 60/40... when they don't drop the line, despite getting heavy play on the dog, it means they are taking a stand on the favorite...
Vegas definitely doesnt want 50/50 action on every game. Sometimes they take a position on a game and hope for money to pour in on one side. I think this is the case here. You have a BCS school who looked unreal on offense in the second half of the season vs a non BCS school who plays nobody. Joe Public thinks this is easy, Wisconsin is getting a FG! Not so fast my friend!
TCU is very underrated and sharps love their stats on off and def in yards per play. Wisconsin wont be able to throw the ball very well and I think TCU could expose their lack of team speed. On Espn Insider they had a sharp say that he has the pure rating on this game at TCU -4.5 pts.
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