Haven’t posted in a while. Taking
Minn - 3.5 Spartans are done for the season and Minn being at home will have more motivation. See a 7-10 point win by Minn.
Cal +6 - Virginia squeaking by with wins. Even if Virginia wins, can’t see them beating Cal by more than 6 on the road.
Best of luck all your picks.
Gambo2000 forgive me for jumping in here, I live in Minnesota, and thought I'd give some feedback.
It's a dreary overcast day in Minny right now. It's not windy, but just feels kinda cool, damp and gross. The trick r treaters were out walking in the drizzle last night. I felt bad for them, and gave them two treats each. Its going to be about 44 degrees at game time. Not much wind. It's not supposed to rain, but with high humidity and cool temps, it just feels damp.
Gophers have Drake Lindsey at QB. I think it's his second year, but first year starting (Max Brosmer had the helm last year). Drake is 6-5, and has a big arm. I think he has the potential to be one of the gophers top 5 QB's ever, but that's not saying much. He is not a threat to run the ball. Kind of a Ben Rothlesberger frame.
Lindsey doesn't get much help from the wideout spot, they don't seem to have much in the way of a big threat, or play maker. Not a ton of separation. They have a big Iowa type tight end, that can do some damage. It's not a big vertical type passing game right now. They'll take a shot once in a while, but with marginal results.
One of the big problems for this gopher squad is line play on both sides. This is NOT one of PJ Flecks better offensive lines. He's used to having a bunch of big road graders he can run his ball control offense behind, and they're not that this year. They have to rely on the passing game more often to move the sticks, and don't provide enough protection for Lindsey. They often struggle to protect him.
The running game has struggled. Darius Taylor is back from injury and looked good against Nebraska, but otherwise hasn't been his former self. It comes back to line play, and they have struggled to open holes.
On the defensive side, a couple mediocre offenses in Rutgers and Purdue, both had their way with the gophers. Purdue ran for 250 yds, and the Rutgers Rb repeatedly gashed the gophers. Twice in that game, Rutgers was settling for 3, handing off on 3rd and 10, and 3rd and 16, and both times, ran for first downs. MSU should be able to run the ball on the gophers. I'm not sure why the hell the cornhuskers didn't run the ball more. It was inexplicable. Iowa dominated the gophers in the trenches. I sort of expect Mich St to hang around all game.
Gophers have trailed at half time to Cal, Rutgers, Ohio St, Purdue, and Iowa. I'm just not sure MSU is the team to take advantage of that trend, as they have trailed at half time to every P4 team as well.
PJ's pretty good at getting his players to bounce back from ugly losses. They got dredged 42-3 by ohio st, and then bounced back with a come from behind win against Purdue. Last week they looked horrible, and got embarrassed by Iowa 41-3. So I think there will be a lot of hungry kids trying to erase that bad taste in their mouth. His entire career PJ treats each game as it's own tournament, like a chess match, or round of golf. They will try to go 1-0 in the Michigan St season.
Gophers have a promising young safety name Koi Perich, who probably could be starting for Ohio St, if he wanted to. He chose to stay home. Early on this year, PJ was trying to turn him into the next Travis Hunter, playing him on both sides of the ball, and even had him throw an end-around pass, that was picked off. They've backed off some of that since then. But Koi is always a threat to house a punt return, or get a pick 6. He reminds me a lot of a young Cooper DeJean. He's a track star, and they let him rome back there.
Kicking game is ok. Anything outside of 45 yards is a coin flip, but he can make those. Punting game is ok. Gophers are just ok. The question is what sort of effort are we going to get from Mich St.
I don't know MIch St very well, but watched them play the Huskers. They were a big pile of 'Meh'. Chiles hurt the huskers running the ball in the 3rd quarter of that game, but otherwise their team seems sort of mediocre everywhere. I think that's what we have today. Two mediocre big 10 teams playing each other. Mich St is coming off 5 straight losses, but USC, Indiana, and Michigan was in that mix, so they might be a little bit better than their 0-5 big 10 record. But maybe Gambot2000 is right. Perhaps he has some insight as to why he thinks MSU has quit. An ex-badger told me a few weeks ago, before the Iowa game, that the Badgers wouldn't win another game this year. I probably should have listened to that advise.
I could see the gophers eeking out a win here, maybe pulling away in the 4th quarter, something like 27-20. I think you'll be sweating the line, no matter which side you take. Gophers had nice 4th quarter come backs against both Rutgers and Purdue, so maybe we'll see more of that here. If I could get a field goal, I might take MSU first half, but it's 2.5 right now. 4 points for the game, seems like a bit much for my taste. Gophers just aren't solid enough, so unless you know for sure that Mich St has quit, I might just stay away, and see if there is a good live opportunity. IF Mich St gets up early 7-0, or 10-3, something like that, I can probably get gophers at a pickem live, and then jump on them. If gophers are trailing by a score or less at half time, I think you could take them semi-confidently in the 2nd half. If the gophers are winning at half time, there's probably no value. PJ gets really conservative with leads in the 4th quarter. They could be up 3 or 4, and you'll be begging them to open up the offense, and it may not come. You'll need Koi Perich to house a pick 6 or punt return.
I think there's a reasonable chance the gophers win by 7-10, but I just don't trust them enough in the trenches to lay 4. It's really going to depend on who's more motivated in this game, on a dreary, damp, overcast, somewhat chilly afternoon. I would think the home team, but...
PJ's pretty good at getting his players to bounce back from ugly losses. They got dredged 42-3 by ohio st, and then bounced back with a come from behind win against Purdue. Last week they looked horrible, and got embarrassed by Iowa 41-3. So I think there will be a lot of hungry kids trying to erase that bad taste in their mouth. His entire career PJ treats each game as it's own tournament, like a chess match, or round of golf. They will try to go 1-0 in the Michigan St season.
Gophers have a promising young safety name Koi Perich, who probably could be starting for Ohio St, if he wanted to. He chose to stay home. Early on this year, PJ was trying to turn him into the next Travis Hunter, playing him on both sides of the ball, and even had him throw an end-around pass, that was picked off. They've backed off some of that since then. But Koi is always a threat to house a punt return, or get a pick 6. He reminds me a lot of a young Cooper DeJean. He's a track star, and they let him rome back there.
Kicking game is ok. Anything outside of 45 yards is a coin flip, but he can make those. Punting game is ok. Gophers are just ok. The question is what sort of effort are we going to get from Mich St.
I don't know MIch St very well, but watched them play the Huskers. They were a big pile of 'Meh'. Chiles hurt the huskers running the ball in the 3rd quarter of that game, but otherwise their team seems sort of mediocre everywhere. I think that's what we have today. Two mediocre big 10 teams playing each other. Mich St is coming off 5 straight losses, but USC, Indiana, and Michigan was in that mix, so they might be a little bit better than their 0-5 big 10 record. But maybe Gambot2000 is right. Perhaps he has some insight as to why he thinks MSU has quit. An ex-badger told me a few weeks ago, before the Iowa game, that the Badgers wouldn't win another game this year. I probably should have listened to that advise.
I could see the gophers eeking out a win here, maybe pulling away in the 4th quarter, something like 27-20. I think you'll be sweating the line, no matter which side you take. Gophers had nice 4th quarter come backs against both Rutgers and Purdue, so maybe we'll see more of that here. If I could get a field goal, I might take MSU first half, but it's 2.5 right now. 4 points for the game, seems like a bit much for my taste. Gophers just aren't solid enough, so unless you know for sure that Mich St has quit, I might just stay away, and see if there is a good live opportunity. IF Mich St gets up early 7-0, or 10-3, something like that, I can probably get gophers at a pickem live, and then jump on them. If gophers are trailing by a score or less at half time, I think you could take them semi-confidently in the 2nd half. If the gophers are winning at half time, there's probably no value. PJ gets really conservative with leads in the 4th quarter. They could be up 3 or 4, and you'll be begging them to open up the offense, and it may not come. You'll need Koi Perich to house a pick 6 or punt return.
I think there's a reasonable chance the gophers win by 7-10, but I just don't trust them enough in the trenches to lay 4. It's really going to depend on who's more motivated in this game, on a dreary, damp, overcast, somewhat chilly afternoon. I would think the home team, but...
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