14-2 ATS - NC State/Cincinatti Write Up

good writeup 

The thing about this game is that if it were played on a Saturday, most of us would just skip right over it!

I think people are giving NC State too much credit.  They seem to be in the same boat as Maryland (with people seeing them as having this great comeback year.  The problem I have is with a team that averages 3.4 yards per carry against a team that had just given up over 4 yards per carry to a FCS team.  Also, when UCF was down 2 tds with 8 minutes to play, NC State gave up pass completions of 30, 14 and 21 yards, as well as a QB scramble of 18.  You might say that they stopped them the rest of the game, but UCF had finally but in a backup QB to run the show.

Yes, Cincy has sucked as well on offense, and that was the point I was trying to make.  I think Collaros was trying to win the Fresno game by himself instead of letting the offense come to him.  It happens alot when a guy plays well as a backup, and then gains a starters roll.  He thinks "this is my team know, lets go out and win."  Once he realizes that it's okay to throw the ball away, and that a non-negative play is a good one, I think you'll see a lot of improvement.  Both teams have struggled and I see Cincy as having the biggest opportunity to improve tonight.

Just locked them in at +2 (+100, no juice)

Cincinnati +2

BOL

Good stuff. Appreciate your sharing it with us.  

Nice post. The only thing I will add is that in a game of two evenly matched teams in the NFL, the home team is usually -3 because statistics show this to be true over the last ~20 years. BUT, in college, the home team advantage is actually 6 points (I'm using about 10 years of data here -- but its consistent year to year). So, Cincy +2 actually means Cincy would be -4 on a neutral site. Either way, I like NC St.

goscots,

you made a good point by saying that if this game was played on Saturday, most of us would skip over it.

Which what I am doing, but if I had to bet, it would be the under........... 

GL ALL............

Thanks for the info! Much appreciated.

Just curious do you count parlays in your W/L record?

Did you really risk (lose) 50% of your bankroll on one game?

 

 

Man, I was in the process of doing a write up on the under, until I looked at NC State's defense from last year.....it went over the total in 7 of their last 8 games (the only under was VATech). 

I just don't see how people are saying the defense is the strong point of the team when they return 5 starters from a D that allowed 31 points per game.  Take out the 1st two games of last year (South Carolina and Murray State) and it balloons up to 36.5 points.

I hate looking at least year's stats, but that scared the piss out of me  and got me off the under real quick!

You play a lot of football games that end up being decided by 1 point?

Thats fucking crazy, if so. I cant imagine that the math would ever work out in your favor laying the -125 as opposed to the -1.5 - actually, the math doesnt work out in your favor.

Why are you doing this? So you feel better?

I am seeing and reading alot of bias towards CINCI, in cases where someone dont do well in your write up they will step up, but not vice versa, and you keep mentioning NCST has a bad defense ( while cinci has an excuse for the bad offense? REALLY? ) While I realized one of the TD against UCF was a pick 6, these guys still average 38 PPG in their first 2. and while Cinci didnt score 2nd half against Fresno, they are still averaging 27 PPG. Saying that both of these teams are struggling offensively....

I am liking NCST in this spot, HOWEVER, I just feel like your write up was too biased towards CINCI giving them free points here and there. Nice record by the way.

Sternblows....learn how to tell the different form a thred I start to a thred I post in!

That was not my post.... that was posted by dukerules!  I haven't posted a single parlay, nor have I played one this year....so no, I don't count parlays.

Lesson.....go to myspace....look at the recent post grid....and then click on all of the post STARTED BY GOSCOTS56 you'll see all of my picks......as well as a write up for every pick.

Roger, I don't understand you point.   I never said NCState had a bad defense, I said last year's defense is keeping me from playing the under.  I said BOTH offenses have struggled against FBS teams, which they have, and that Cincy's offense has the best change for improvement.

BTW: I did not look at NCState's stats verses Western Carolina....and why would you.  WC comes back the next week and looses to Tusculum 54-30.....so if you're gonna try to use the Western Carolina game, then I guess you can say that NCState's offense is worse than Tusculum (since WC held State to 48 but Tusculum scored 54).  It is not fair to say a team is avereging 38 points a game, when 48 of them came against WC.

This is week 3!  In which a lot is to be determined from both of these teams.  They both have struggled.  In order to get a good read I tried to look at the play by play of each game, and really focused on the Fresno and UCF games (which is why I stated that I wish Fresno would have played in week 2 so we could see if their D is that good).

Sorry that I don't have a english degree (B.A. in mathematics) and can't be more eliquent, but I do think my reasoning behind picking Cincy is pretty clear.

i agree 

WTF Man???? Do you get what you're saying.  You tell a guy that he plays alot of games that are decided by one point, yet he's stupid for not laying -2 instead of a pickup!?!

If his games are decided by 1 point, then he's a donk for laying 2.

NCState 28
Cincy 27

(He loses his -2 (-110 play) but wins his ML (-125) play.)

I don't mind people being smart asses, but at least pick the right spot to do it.

well done... GL

based on what I saw vs fresno the cincy D looks very weak--Russell will have a field day and the pack wins 

One of the most disgruntled posters I have ever seen. Dont get so worked up man, its just life.

You have decent write-ups, it leads me to believe you are somewhat educated. But, then you go and make a post like this without reading what I wrote and I am like, oh man, is this guy just another puttz?

I was asking if he played a lot of games that are decided by 1 point. Since the math doesnt work out in favor of laying more juice, I was asking why he was doing it.

The strength of the Cincy D is going to lie with stopping the run.  Yes, they did allow Fresno to complete 18 of 24 for 247.  But NCState's weakness it throwing the football.  So if you're weakness is throwing...you don't have much fun playing a team that stops the run.

Cincy held Fresno to 3-13 on 3rd downs.  Only allowed 1.6 ypc, and forced 8 punts.  In Fresno's 2 first half scoring drives they got the ball at midfield.  Cincy lost that game because of their offense (or you can say fresno won b/c of the D).

We must have been watching a different game.......or maybe we just look at it differently.

Not trying to be a puttz or give english lessons (as mine is bad enough) but..............

DO you usually play games that are decided by one point?

Would have made it a little more obvious. 

I just miss read your post and thought you were saying he plays alot of games decided by one point.

My Bad!

RJ, also I had just responded to the donkey sternblows rethreding a post that wasn't even mine.  Trying to make it seem like I posted Georgia Tech as a 50% bankroll play last week!

Thanks for the insight. I'll be on NC State tonight and feel good about it, however it is always good to hear the POV from the other side of the coin.

Some NC State backers insights in the thread below. BOL, should be a good watch regardless.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=100824277