Quote Originally Posted by popeofpicks:
UC Riverside Highlanders are -3 at home vs. Poly Mustangs.
Each team brings a 7-9 record.
Riverside is 7-1 ATS their last 8 games.
Last 5 games, Riverside has been shooting more often than SLO and at a higher percentage, both inside and outside the 3-point line.
Rebounding and turnovers are about even over the last 5.
The stat that stands out to me is over the last 5 games, Riverside goes to the charity stripe 24 times to SLO's 14.4. Riverside is attacking the basket and drawing fouls.
That's good enough for me. I'll lay the 3 on the Highlanders for a unit.
BOL on all your plays
First, good luck with the play and I will be cheering for you to hit it - but allow me to play devil's advocate for moment.
First, the ATS record is very deceptive as all 7 of their ATS wins were as underdogs (and 5 of those as underdogs of 8 or more points). The one time they have been favored this season they lost straight up. The ATS record is like comparing apples and oranges when you begin to differentiate between favs and dogs.
Next, the shots taken stat can thrown out as obviously Cal Poly plays a much slower tempo than Riverside (especially in the last 5 were Poly has been on of the slowest teams in the entire country).
Because they play each other, they will shoot approximately the same amount of shots unless you think Riverside will out-offensive rebound them (which you shouldn't as Poly has gotten more offensive rebounds than Riverside over their last five and has played tougher competition).
Also, despite the fact that Riverside is shooting better (slightly) than Poly over their last five (remember also Riverside has played an easier schedule including a non-D-1 school), Poly is playing SIGNIFICANTLY better defense (holding teams to 34% from the field while Riverside stands at 46% against tougher competition and Poly is holding opponents to 16% 3's!!!!!!!!!!!)
This is a problem as Riverside has continued to take more 3's as the season goes along and its not a big part of their offense (along with the free throw attempts you mentioned).
Clearly you understand money management as this is a 1-unit play I just wanted to point out the other side of the argument.
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