Flutie System Play

The analytical system has spit out Green Bay +1.5 on the road. Green Bay has played the tougher schedule. 

I would classify these t squads as 2 garbage teams where anything can happen. Line movement favors IUPUI. 

Kind of like those who backed Boston U over Maine last night. For those who didn't notice, I was one of thr only people here who picked Maine to get their first win last night. That is because the analytical system that I have invented and continue to develop uses metrics that your average "sharp" does not take i to account. That's why I won with Colgate and Maine last night. BALL State on Tuesday and UTEP on Sunday.

To me, those were obvious plays. To the average street level amateur, they looked like bad bets. I won all four. Good luck flutie.

I would like to add that this is a terrible night in NCAAB tonight. Not a lot of games. I am not as confident in GREEN Bay as I was last night. I have made a small 0.382 unit play on GB. 

Be careful tailing this one. More of an action play on a bad night. If the system loses I will be tweaking it. 

@D-Town

 Weak card tonight D Town. 

Thank you for the pick. I think today is slightly easier to cap for college because vegas main focus is on NFL / NBA. They might overlook a bit on the college games. 

@ayashifx55

 Definitely a possibility and an astute observation. 

Under 167.5 is the play here too I think. GB deliberately runs clock this year and doesn’t just take the first open look like last year.

@Noonball

 First game this year iupui total has been below 169.5

good luck tonight  I hear ya on that  last night did a write up and liked Merrimack  no one was on Merrimack  and they won outright  ...those things happen  just keep pumping out those winners   

gl  

@Noonball

 I like this play. Feeling GB gonna shut down iupui   The 1h under would be my 

Play too risky in a close game with a million fouls on a cold winter night. 
  

@Noonball

 That is an excellent analytic.

Green Bay with 4 players averaging double digit points. IUPUI has 3.

IUPUI has 4 players who average over 20 minutes a game. Green Bay has 5.

IUPUI with the more efficient offense. Green Bay with the more efficient defense.

@Noonball

 The correct O/U should.be 164.5 according to my unique analytical system. 

IUPUI has better ball movement and makes more steals. The rebounding is fairly even. 

Green Bay has played the 61st most difficult schedule. 

IUPUI 273rd.

@flutie

 We aren't far off, my numbers say 163.8.

@flutie

 Green Bay one of the best plays on the board!

@Noonball

 Im surprise you like this one with the public all over this under, roughly 78%. Of the money and bets.

@leafs1789

 Yes. Very close. 

I produce my own O/U lines and compare with Vegas. However, I rarely play totals.

@flutie

 So do i, and I don't count the division ll teams they play.

I think on this game with your system , live bet would be great. I often don't see the advantage of +1.5. Its either they lead or they trail. Rarely you need that +1.5. Either team will eventually run away or win by 1 FG. Seems like your system points to +3.5 or +4.5 for it to being a 'deal' 

@flutie

 You made a small "0.382 unit bet on GB." Uhh, what?

@leafs1789

 I live near GB and watch their games. Gottleib has instructed them to run clock on many occasions instead of a track meet.

In this game if GB plays at IUPuI pace they lose. If they keep it around 155-160 I think they’ll have a better chance at a positive result.

@ayashifx55

 130 games out of 1999 games have been decided by 2 points or less. 6.5%

@ayashifx55

 4 point line movement on this one too. Two garbage teams. Who knows what to expect .