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Betting patterns

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Posted: #101
Quote Originally Posted by Tjtorok11:

Just hiw I liked Seattle the otber night and Duquesne the night before but didnt bet them because of this. I am seeing if its worth it to start betting on these picks. I'm not even betting on half these games yet, I'm trying to see if there's something to it... I'm just saying watch out on these games I think something is fishy. If this system starts to work in gonna start looking at the refs who were reffing those games

I feel ya man. But the thing is the patterns are constantly changing. You can spot trends at times that will last for a bit that you can ride, but they always break at some point. Usually on Saturdays I'll write down a bunch of picks I like quickly just looking at the spread and go back and look over them all and reverse pick them. Meaning I would go the opposite of what I wrote down. Yesterday was a good day to take Seton Hall coming off 2 losses and becoming un-ranked. They have a really good squad that's been playing poorly. 
 
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Posted: #102
Quote Originally Posted by El_Terrible:



You should be embarrassed to post that as some form of logic... look up the Monte Carlo fallacy... doesn't matter what happened yesterday... this is basic stuff... things I was aware of 45 years ago

I don't care to. I have a way I like to bet and it works for me. You're so smart but yet, you've been losing your behind here lately. Friday you were what like 2-5 compared to my 5-1-1. If you don't like or agree with what we're talking about I don't know why you stay stuck in this thread. With NBA totals, Friday and Saturday several totals went under so I had a feeling Sunday a lot of overs would hit and I was right. 
 
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Posted: #103

Quote Originally Posted by Tjtorok11:

Gonna stick with 80% public or higher with no lone movement., tried forcing it yesterday with no. Iowa. Cause they were the closest thing that fit. Won't do that again. 1-1 so far tonights pick is West Carolina+11
If you're lookin for RLM, look at  E TENN VS CITADEL.  71 percent on E Tenn at -19. Line is -16 now

 
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Posted: #104
Quote Originally Posted by rake122:

If you're lookin for RLM, look at  E TENN VS CITADEL.  71 percent on E Tenn at -19. Line is -16 now


Yes, I like Citadel to cover as well. My plays for right now are Citadel to cover, Northwestern to cover and Wofford to cover. Might add over on Duke and Fairfield to cover. 
 
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Posted: #105
Yeah. East ten, wofford, and northwestern all look weird. I have to stick with 80% system tho so raking west Carolina off my pick list because its down to 76%. Still gonna watch out for that game and not bet wofford even tho I want to lol
 
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Posted: #106
Quote Originally Posted by Tjtorok11:

Yeah. East ten, wofford, and northwestern all look weird. I have to stick with 80% system tho so raking west Carolina off my pick list because its down to 76%. Still gonna watch out for that game and not bet wofford even tho I want to lol

Ya the fishy line trick works more times than not. ETSU opened at 19 and now down to 15.5 on my book with most money on ETS. Michigan opened at 9 and now down to 7.5 even though people were hammering Michigan early on. I might take off Northwestern now as people seem to be playing them. I really like Citadel and Wofford alot. 
 
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Posted: #107
I really like uofm, east ten st and wofford tonight, but all 3 look weird. Prolly gonna throw money on east ten st. And I'll prolly avoid betting on wofford and michigan game
 
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Posted: #108
I'm thinking about fading UNCG and taking Chatanooga too. That line looks fishy and Chatanooga is pretty bad. 
 
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Posted: #109
Didn't that open at 5? 7.5 is a leap throughout the day. 
 
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Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by Tjtorok11:

Didn't that open at 5? 7.5 is a leap throughout the day. 

I'm showing it opened at 6, but UNCG is being heavily bet. I like the value for the dog at 7.5. 
 
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Posted: #111
Quote Originally Posted by CMoult83:


I'm showing it opened at 6, but UNCG is being heavily bet. I like the value for the dog at 7.5. 

Also wanna take Chatanooga since El Terrible likes UNCG, lol. 
 
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Posted: #112

Quote Originally Posted by Tjtorok11:

I really like uofm, east ten st and wofford tonight, but all 3 look weird. Prolly gonna throw money on east ten st. And I'll prolly avoid betting on wofford and michigan game
Just a tip..The line movement will have more to do with the amount of money bet on a side rather than the percentage of bets on a side. They are two very different ideas. 80% of bets could be on a team but 60% of the money on the other side. I think that is the part of the equation you are missing. 

 
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Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by CMoult83:

I'm thinking about fading UNCG and taking Chatanooga too. That line looks fishy and Chatanooga is pretty bad. 

I'm kinda liking Samford to cover. 
 
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Posted: #114
Quote Originally Posted by CMoult83:


Ya the fishy line trick works more times than not. ETSU opened at 19 and now down to 15.5 on my book with most money on ETS.

THATS NOT POSSIBLE, and it's never happened in the history of Earth

No book on in this world would ever lower the number on the favorite that's getting more than 50% of the action ... don't you know how they make money?

Cmon man...ru kidding? 

 You're working off of fraudulent numbers
 
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by steelersbets:

Just a tip..The line movement will have more to do with the amount of money bet on a side rather than the percentage of bets on a side. They are two very different ideas. 80% of bets could be on a team but 60% of the money on the other side. I think that is the part of the equation you are missing. 



He doesn't get it... he thinks water flows uphill... he said most of the money was on ETSU yet the book still lowerd the numbere by four points... that would be an instant firing if a manager at a book accidentally did that...
 
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by El_Terrible:


THATS NOT POSSIBLE, and it's never happened in the history of Earth

No book on in this world would ever lower the number on the favorite that's getting more than 50% of the action ... don't you know how they make money?

Cmon man...ru kidding? 

 You're working off of fraudulent numbers

Dude give it a rest. Sorry you bet on ETSU buddy, lol. 
 
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Posted: #117
Seriously... you two need to take about 15 minutes and learn the ABCs and one two threes of bookmaking. You shouldn't be making a bet if you don't have a basic level of knowledge of how this all works... you're saying the absolute dumbest things ever , and you're embarrassing yourselves..
 
Shouldn't take more than 5 minutes to educate yourselves
 
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Posted: #118
Old ETSU is definitely going to cover... 

The Citadel is crap
 
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Posted: #119
Quote Originally Posted by El_Terrible:

Seriously... you two need to take about 15 minutes and learn the ABCs and one two threes of bookmaking. You shouldn't be making a bet if you don't have a basic level of knowledge of how this all works... you're saying the absolute dumbest things ever , and you're embarrassing yourselves..
 
Shouldn't take more than 5 minutes to educate yourselves

You're so educated and you've hit about what 25% of your bets over the last few days? I'm not going to read a book to place a wager, sorry. Citadel was an official play for me as stated. If they hold up, every other Joe on covers was liking ETSU. So ya. 
 
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Posted: #120
Hahaha... you better read a book cuz you don't know what you're talking about...

And let's get real... your system is ridiculous


 
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Posted: #121
My theory is that vegas bets big numbers to keep spreads down to where the public will keep betting on them. Thats why when it says 80% of public is betting on wofford small groups of people are placing a lot mlre money on West carolina making me think something is wrong with it. Same with etsu uofm tonigbt. Less with the uofm game as that's closer to 60% on Michigan. Which I don't think is as fishy, but still something to look at
 
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Posted: #122
Omg...
 
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Posted: #123
You know I was a dumb kid once, what was never this dumb

Good lord... the hits just keep coming
 
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Posted: #124
Love you so terrible. You're the true champ. Shall we keep backing your losing picks while you s*it on everyone trying to do something different lol
 
 
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Posted: #125
"Vegas bets big numbers"? 

What? So they make pets at their own book to get you to think one way or the other...?

Ok..thats enough.. I tried... you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink.. 

Here comes Etsu
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