??? Opposing Defense (DET)
?? COMPREHENSIVE NFL BETTING ANALYSIS: Zach Ertz (TE) vs Detroit Lions
?? 2025 SEASON CONTEXTUAL BREAKDOWN
CRITICAL INJURY CONTEXT:
• Quarterback Jayden Daniels is OUT
• MASSIVE offensive chemistry disruption detected
• Projected 25-30% reduction in offensive efficiency
MATCHUP GRADE: C- (Challenging Situation)
?? KEY PERFORMANCE METRICS:
• Season Avg Yards: 32.3 yards/game
• Home Performance: 38.25 yards
• Away Performance: 27.6 yards
• Consistency Variance: High (0.58 coefficient)
?? DEFENSIVE VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS:
• Detroit Defense Allowing 49.0 TE yards/game (League Avg: 17.6)
• MASSIVE 31.4 yard differential favors tight end production
• Recent defensive performances: Highly volatile (11-65-103 yards allowed)
?? RECENT PERFORMANCE TREND:
Week 9 (SEA): 46 yards
Week 8 (KC): 16 yards
Week 7 (DAL): 37 yards
Week 6 (CHI): 43 yards
Week 5 (LAC): 0 yards
?? PROP RECOMMENDATIONS:
• Receiving Yards: UNDER 35.5 (-110)
• Targets: UNDER 4.5 (-115)
• Touchdown: NO (+165)
RISK FACTORS:
1. Backup QB likely reduces TE involvement
2. High variance in personal performance
3. Critical offensive chemistry disruption
CONFIDENCE BREAKDOWN:
• Baseline Projection: 24-32 yards
• Injury Adjustment: -7 yards
• Defensive Matchup Boost: +5 yards
• FINAL PROJECTION: 22-27 yards
?? BETTING STRATEGY:
• LOW-CONFIDENCE play
• Recommend UNDER on yards prop
• Avoid moneyline bets
• Consider light unit allocation
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 52/100
ADVANCED INSIGHT: The Jayden Daniels injury creates significant offensive uncertainty, reducing Ertz's reliability despite Detroit's TE-friendly defense.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. All betting and fantasy decisions carry risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
?? View Complete Data Report
?? Recent Games
| Week |
Opponent |
Yards |
TDs |
| Week 9 |
vs SEA |
46 |
0 |
| Week 8 |
vs KC |
16 |
0 |
| Week 7 |
vs DAL |
37 |
0 |
| Week 6 |
vs CHI |
43 |
0 |
| Week 5 |
vs LAC |
0 |
0 |
??? Opposing Defense
Avg Allowed/Game
49.0 yds