YTD (SOCCER): 33-18-3 (BIG PLAY!!!: 11-4)
Been a great start to the season, much better than that in the NFL where I am backlogged and more or less done with backing the Texans for some time. I expect the party to keep rolling today as there are quite a few good angles albeit most are going to be first half plays.
ATHLETIC BILBAO FH (+101)...BIG PLAY!!!: Maybe this spread is where it is because Bilbao have hit a major skid of late which also happens to be around the same time their top talent, Nico Williams, got injured. Whatever the case, they have lost twice on their home field which they rarely do and have lost 3 in a row which is also a rarity. Now they get to face Girona, a team that is upside down and with no real avenue for immediate improvement with the squad they currently field. Moreover, Girona have given up more first half goals between the 15th and 30th minute than they have scored all season! This is a crucial spot for Bilbao and they will be ready from the starting whistle to get back on track given how early it is in the season. Play this confidently and see you all at the window.
REAL MADRID FH (-139): I'm a bit skiddish on this only because Xavi Alonso keeps rotating his squad and while that seems smart to keep fresh legs, it doesn't help the continuity between players who are being shuttled in and out and have to try and get some flow. On the other hand, Real Madrid is playing Levante who have not started off the season very strong and RM always will have Mbappe to lead the charge. I can see Vini Jr. getting on the scoresheet here but Levante have played Madrid tough at home so that keeps this from being a BIG PLAY!
LIVERPOOL FH -3/4 (-137): Honestly, I might just drop the -193 on the first half ML but it seems like a hefty price to pay even if Liverpool is playing on home soil against a marginal Southampton team. What gives me confidence is the fact that when you look at the players that Liverpool have to rotate in and out, I don't see how you aren't fielding an Isak, Eketike, or Gakpo and still then, you will have options like Wirtz and Salah even in this Cup game. That quality is just much stronger than what Southampton can field and if things get dicey, Liverpool will turn to their bench. But I see the opening frame having some action and I think most of that will come from Liverpool. I'm happy if they win the FH by a goal and I get 50% of my play cashed.
That's all I have for today, not sure what tomorrow will bring. I like AC Milan in their home cup game against a Lecce side that can do very little but I'm not sure the odds are showing much value. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...
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