Current line moved to +32
this is a small half unit bet for reasons.
1) The team sucks
2.). The team sucks and i probably can get even more than 32
3) it’s Monday and Monday college hoops good dogs don’t play.
The good news is this team falls in to the successful query that many bad teams qualify for and we’re winner many times.
I will add more after the first half of the favorites are done dominating probably more toward the end of the game. It’s just better since a half unit winner is fine with the high of a line.
these games are highly volatile
This is only the 3rd time Niagara has been line+26 or more
the other opponents face were Duke this season
Mich St last year
That’s good news
The bad news is they lost both of these games by a combined 94 points
the kind good news is they are 1-1 ats in these games.
I just don’t feel good about VCU laying this many but I am also not overly confident in Niagara.
I trust the data and history and I trust VCU is not elite
I’ve seen many a 32 point lines in my time. Some of them the dog hangs around all game and the spread isn’t tested most of them the favorite dominates and the line touches or exceeds 40+
im not sure what to expect but VCUs bench is not on the level of a high quantity ranked team.
The key in the data is they failed to score 69 points 2 games ago. That puts a tag in the as incapable. Add to that that are on a horrendous ats losing streak.
VCU has only played 3 times when their line was <-26
2019 vs Alabama St final 78-62 lost ATS
2025 vs Wagner final 103-73 ats win
2025 vs Coppin 101-58 ats win. This line was -34 and that was the highest. So the current game is second highest
The key number for me is + 40 in game because they were +40 against Duke earlier this season. My take on that is that is a ceiling and the 32 is not that far off.
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