Something to think about as far as what line makers evaluation of Georgia Tech only -6 tomorrow
let this game go or don’t play the dog. What I see is a weak evaluation for future games if GTch covers. That’s a good think
GTCH IS A TARGET
@KingRGIII
I’m not betting that game today. I have my notes about past teams. Georgia T’s seemingly low line today tags them on my watch list. They qualify for me to keep a serious watch on their meanderings.
Not many teams qualify on this list just based upon one line. This line is significantly important going forward. Now do they cover or fail.
I am still waiting on the exact lines to lock in.
I will be betting FSU and Rider today.
Both of these plays have questions. Tread lightly.
Rider:
Rider is off 38 point output game so that tags them. RUM 151 has broken down this game into the stats he uses and is on Delaware. I get that and it’s not easy being opposite. Maybe this should be a pass.
Why then play what do I see. I looked at last years line of Rider -1.5 vs Delaware. Then I look at date on teams after a terrible scoring game. Then this line at +10. I think that sold me on +10 being too many. Rider has VCU on deck and teams that don’t score 40 points and are off losing ATS games don’t do well.
Well this line being +10 against a poor record team is more valuable to me than waiting a game and fading VCU in their next game. There is a ceiling to the margin between Rider and Delaware. There is a far greater ceiling to the margin vs VCU.
I like my chances tonight at +10 for a half unit pregame and add more ingame if a decent opportunity presents itself. The way I see it on the court. Delaware is congruent to provide a better shooting night. These teams are similar. At +10 it’s an opportunity for them to “rebound “ nicely after a bad loss.
FSU:
terrible defense the last 4 games. Blowouts and all that. They have played some quality teams this season and are a rare underdog. +17 to Florida and lost a close game. Barely lost the cover against Houston.
This is a line play based upon terrible performances recently and the line has over-reacted the a -12 point loss to UMass last game. They go from -12 to + 7 and the consensus and not even close.
I don’t know WTF happened to the FSU defense recently. This FSU has been favorites most of the season and I’m congruent with the way the lines makers evaluation of that. This line is an over reaction and stretched too far the other way.
if Dayton covers I doubt it’s a blowout. I don’t see a miserable outcome in both halves so if the first half is poor I will increase my wager size accordingly in the second half. FSU already failed the line my large sizes recently and that’s why the 20 point line swing from UMass -12 to +7 vs Dayton.
Covers lists no FSU injuries so if that’s false let me know.
Some people break down on the court stats and data. I do not. The booking have set their team evaluations from past games and the past game success or failures from that creates line volatility. If a team is that inconsistent to the line the books have no real feel in how to appropriately set an exact line.
These 2 games fit my mold. I believe at worst I’m 1-1 today and see not only pregame opportunity vs the line but also in game opportunities as well.
Some people break down on the court stats and data. I do not. The booking have set their team evaluations from past games and the past game success or failures from that creates line volatility. If a team is that inconsistent to the line the books have no real feel in how to appropriately set an exact line.
These 2 games fit my mold. I believe at worst I’m 1-1 today and see not only pregame opportunity vs the line but also in game opportunities as well.
I have bet all these and will track my records from the results if all these but for your info and filling college hoops picks will be the best option
you can feel confident in all these picks but one days outcome has a big variation.
good I don’t want popular pick so I hope this is balanced. The Knicks are in a tear so I understand the like of the over
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