Only 4 teams managed to put up over 106 pts last year, 8 in the previous year & 9 the year before that. The Panthers managed it in 2023-24 before regressing back to 98 last season.
Asking this team who have played more games (308 including playoffs) to step up to that level again after playing another 82 grueling games in a season where you are without Matthew Tkachuk who is out till Dec (?) and add on top of that an aging group , Marchand is (36), Jones (30) and Bobrovsky (36). The replacing of Spencer Knight a very promising young goalie with the likes of Tarasov who couldn't steal the job away from the awful and highly overpaid Merzlikins means it's a big step down in talent if something should happen to Bobrovsky and doesn't exactly instill confidence in goal.
Florida has shown the ability to turn it up when needed and are rightly one of the favorites to win it all again , but i think that with a bit of a Cup hangover coupled with the few things mentioned above that reaching the 107 point mark this season may be asking too much .
Any thoughts feel free to agree or disagree, or tell us who you think could over or underachieve the books #'s
Only 4 teams managed to put up over 106 pts last year, 8 in the previous year & 9 the year before that. The Panthers managed it in 2023-24 before regressing back to 98 last season.
Asking this team who have played more games (308 including playoffs) to step up to that level again after playing another 82 grueling games in a season where you are without Matthew Tkachuk who is out till Dec (?) and add on top of that an aging group , Marchand is (36), Jones (30) and Bobrovsky (36). The replacing of Spencer Knight a very promising young goalie with the likes of Tarasov who couldn't steal the job away from the awful and highly overpaid Merzlikins means it's a big step down in talent if something should happen to Bobrovsky and doesn't exactly instill confidence in goal.
Florida has shown the ability to turn it up when needed and are rightly one of the favorites to win it all again , but i think that with a bit of a Cup hangover coupled with the few things mentioned above that reaching the 107 point mark this season may be asking too much .
Any thoughts feel free to agree or disagree, or tell us who you think could over or underachieve the books #'s
Yeah under feels right. Too much mileage, Tkachuk out, goalie downgrade, aging core, hard to see 107. I’d watch Ottawa for the over, young and deeper than people think.
Yeah under feels right. Too much mileage, Tkachuk out, goalie downgrade, aging core, hard to see 107. I’d watch Ottawa for the over, young and deeper than people think.
I agree Ottawa has a very bright future and a great bunch of up & coming young talent with the likes of Stutzle, Sanderson and Zub coupled with a solid #1 goalie in Ullmark and veteran leadership in Giroux not to mention the grit of the Captain Tkachuk and are definitely a team to keep an eye on . Bet 365 has their total at 95.5 leaning slightly to the over which feels about right after a 97 point campaign last year in which they took a significant step forward .
The Sens could definitely pick up some of the points that I feel the Leafs and teams like Washington will be unable to repeat this year , however with the Habs and Carolina as well as the Rangers and quite possibly the Sabres and Detoit looking to improve it may be hard to make much more headway.
My guess is the Sens will be a playoff team again this year but fighting for that wildcard spot which puts them in that 93 - 99 point range , Not enough to make it a play IMO, good luck though if you do go that route
I agree Ottawa has a very bright future and a great bunch of up & coming young talent with the likes of Stutzle, Sanderson and Zub coupled with a solid #1 goalie in Ullmark and veteran leadership in Giroux not to mention the grit of the Captain Tkachuk and are definitely a team to keep an eye on . Bet 365 has their total at 95.5 leaning slightly to the over which feels about right after a 97 point campaign last year in which they took a significant step forward .
The Sens could definitely pick up some of the points that I feel the Leafs and teams like Washington will be unable to repeat this year , however with the Habs and Carolina as well as the Rangers and quite possibly the Sabres and Detoit looking to improve it may be hard to make much more headway.
My guess is the Sens will be a playoff team again this year but fighting for that wildcard spot which puts them in that 93 - 99 point range , Not enough to make it a play IMO, good luck though if you do go that route
Nice to see you around ole man and I hope you are well. Sorry you won't participate in the CHCL this year but it is a grind. Maybe you can give me some pointers.
Futures...I personally don't play them. Too many IF's in a long season and all it takes is one injury to wreck the whole thought process. In regards to Florida, I think we learned something from them last year. They understand they don't need to turn on the jets during the regular season. In fact, I feel like they know they don't need to "grind" out a 1st or 2nd place. As long as they are in, they will be satisfied. So, yes, under 106 sounds good to me. I don't Toronto will have as many either. They have to make up 102 point loss of Marner and that will not be easy to do. Some overs?...Utah and Ducks might be on the radar.
Those Who do not learn from History, are doomed to repeat it
Nice to see you around ole man and I hope you are well. Sorry you won't participate in the CHCL this year but it is a grind. Maybe you can give me some pointers.
Futures...I personally don't play them. Too many IF's in a long season and all it takes is one injury to wreck the whole thought process. In regards to Florida, I think we learned something from them last year. They understand they don't need to turn on the jets during the regular season. In fact, I feel like they know they don't need to "grind" out a 1st or 2nd place. As long as they are in, they will be satisfied. So, yes, under 106 sounds good to me. I don't Toronto will have as many either. They have to make up 102 point loss of Marner and that will not be easy to do. Some overs?...Utah and Ducks might be on the radar.
Dubz , your mention of Nashville now has me rethinking. You're certainly right about the ageing Preds ,they are actually one of the oldest teams in the league with an average age of 30 and it's guys like Stamkos (35) Marchessault (34) Forsberg (31) O'Reilly (34) and Josi (35) the 'core guys ' that are on the wrong side of that average.
Last years 68 points was certainly very disappointing from this bunch after posting 90's in the previous 3. Finishing 31st out of 32 in GF had a big part in that but the fact that Saros had what for him was the worst year of his career probably had a lot to do with it too (a sub .900 sv% and GAA close to 3.00).
You mention the tough division and you are bang on , I expect Utah to make a big improvement along with Anaheim.
Bet365 had them listed at 86.5 when it opened and currently sit at 84.5, so unless Saros bounces back and they can find some scoring again, asking them to improve to those levels again may be too much. If Saros is not able to return to form, Annunen as backup doesn't have a record that shows he can step in and be a difference.
Dubz , your mention of Nashville now has me rethinking. You're certainly right about the ageing Preds ,they are actually one of the oldest teams in the league with an average age of 30 and it's guys like Stamkos (35) Marchessault (34) Forsberg (31) O'Reilly (34) and Josi (35) the 'core guys ' that are on the wrong side of that average.
Last years 68 points was certainly very disappointing from this bunch after posting 90's in the previous 3. Finishing 31st out of 32 in GF had a big part in that but the fact that Saros had what for him was the worst year of his career probably had a lot to do with it too (a sub .900 sv% and GAA close to 3.00).
You mention the tough division and you are bang on , I expect Utah to make a big improvement along with Anaheim.
Bet365 had them listed at 86.5 when it opened and currently sit at 84.5, so unless Saros bounces back and they can find some scoring again, asking them to improve to those levels again may be too much. If Saros is not able to return to form, Annunen as backup doesn't have a record that shows he can step in and be a difference.
While we're at it maybe we should try our hand at looking at who we think will actually make the Playoffs ? Anyone game ?
My peek into the crystal ball :
East I'm penciling in : Carolina Tampa New Jersey Washington Florida Toronto as a solid (?) 6, leaving the Wild Card between Ottawa Montreal and I think the Rangers bounce back into the mix .
West I'm looking at : Vegas (and you Mitch Marner) Colorado Dallas Edmonton Winnipeg LA Kings & here's where it gets interesting
While we're at it maybe we should try our hand at looking at who we think will actually make the Playoffs ? Anyone game ?
My peek into the crystal ball :
East I'm penciling in : Carolina Tampa New Jersey Washington Florida Toronto as a solid (?) 6, leaving the Wild Card between Ottawa Montreal and I think the Rangers bounce back into the mix .
West I'm looking at : Vegas (and you Mitch Marner) Colorado Dallas Edmonton Winnipeg LA Kings & here's where it gets interesting
Doc, yep still around glad to say I don't usually do futures myself but I thought I would give it a go this year just so I would have something to stick around for LOL. (the power of positive thinking they say)
Hope you had a good summer, I expect great things from you with your AHL prognostications. Good luck Bud and are you going to be able to do your write-ups ? I know a lot of us here really looked forward to those
Doc, yep still around glad to say I don't usually do futures myself but I thought I would give it a go this year just so I would have something to stick around for LOL. (the power of positive thinking they say)
Hope you had a good summer, I expect great things from you with your AHL prognostications. Good luck Bud and are you going to be able to do your write-ups ? I know a lot of us here really looked forward to those
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